projection experience
But Mr. Amaral said that by leveraging his long history as a labor leader, Mr. Lula sought to emphasize the experience and longevity qualities of his closest competitor.
Ahead of October’s election, Lula faces his biggest challenge from Flavio Bolsonaro, a 45-year-old first-term senator.
The senator won his party’s nomination in December with the support of his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro.
“It’s like saying, ‘I’m not a daddy’s girl. I have 50 years of experience,'” Amaral said of Lula’s strategy.
The conflict between Lula and the Bolsonaro family has deep roots. In the last presidential election in 2022, Lula narrowly defeated Jair Bolsonaro by a margin of 1.8 points.
It was the closest presidential election in Brazilian history.
However, the Bolsonaro family has developed close ties with President Trump. As a result, foreign policy, which is usually associated with Brazilian elections, has taken on unusual importance this year.
Trump inserted himself into Brazilian politics throughout Lula’s third term, painting the Brazilian government as censoring right-wing voices.
He is also seeking to use his financial influence to end the prosecution of Jair Bolsonaro, who was convicted of coup plotting after losing the 2022 presidential election to Lula.
Last year, President Trump announced 50% tariffs on a wide range of Brazilian exports as punishment for “the Brazilian government’s treatment of former President Bolsonaro.” He denounced the trial as “political persecution.”
But critics say Lula has successfully turned the tariffs into a popularity boost and shifted the blame to the Bolsonaro family.
In a July 2025 opinion poll conducted after the tariffs were announced, his approval rating exceeded 50% for the first time in about nine months.
These tariffs were eventually lifted. However, in June of this year, President Trump announced new 25% tariffs on certain Brazilian products, citing “unfair trade practices” under the Lula administration.
Mr. Paz, the political science professor, believes it is unlikely that Mr. Lula will see much benefit at the ballot box from these tariffs unless he can tie the additional taxes to the conditions faced by the average Brazilian consumer.
“For example, if the government finds certain goods or services unaffordable due to tariffs, it could shift the blame onto President Trump and the Bolsonaro family,” Paz said.
“If that happens, Lula could win over some more undecided voters.”
