Tensions between China and the Philippines increase after China criticizes Manila over Seoul clashes

Sino-Philippine relations suffered another blow after Beijing warned Manila to stop its “theatrics” after senior government officials harshly criticized China at a recent defense summit.

Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. surprised the audience at the Seoul Defense Dialogue on Tuesday by reading a memo secretly handed to him by his Chinese side, giving new impetus to already fraught relations between China and the Philippines over the South China Sea.

The message, handed to Central Panel member Teodoro, expressed China’s position on the 2016 South China Sea arbitration award and reiterated China’s rejection of the ruling in Manila’s favor.

Teodoro then fired back, accusing the Chinese government of “coercion, bullying and aggression” in the South China Sea. A clip of his remarks went viral in the Philippines, but the reaction on Chinese social media was relatively muted.

“This is one of the rarest times that the Chinese government has been openly challenged in such a public forum,” said Colin Koh, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. Co said Teodoro’s actions were consistent with Manila’s traditional policy on maritime disputes and his own “vocal and tough personality.”

Teodoro has been under sanctions since June, banning Teodoro, his wife and children from entering Chinese territory, for “false statements against China.”

Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mao Ning told reporters on Wednesday that while he was not aware of exactly what happened, Beijing “strongly urges certain individuals on the Philippine side to stop provoking and staging, and stop undermining Sino-Philippine relations and stability in the South China Sea.”

Hu Xijin, who retired as editor-in-chief of state media Global Times and is now one of the country’s most influential commentators, wrote late Thursday that Teodoro’s actions were “a complete violation of diplomatic interests.”

China and the Philippines have been in a long-standing dispute over competing claims in the South China Sea, and friction has escalated in recent months. In July, a Chinese Coast Guard vessel sprayed water on a Philippine ship near Scarborough Shoal, and the Chinese government declared the area around the reef a “nature reserve,” sparking protests from Manila.

Analysts say the spat is another sign of already high tensions and is likely to give Beijing an opening to step up its nationalist rhetoric against Manila, barring a serious military escalation.

Coe said that while Teodoro’s standoff probably increased public support at home, the incident is likely to further escalate tensions because Beijing also won’t back down. But he does not expect it to turn into an armed conflict.

Coe said both governments want to stabilize relations, especially since President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has signaled his intention to “reset” relations with China. Rather, he hopes the Chinese government will name specific officials it deems “hard-core anti-China,” like Teodoro, and set a narrative that distinguishes them from the rest of the country.

“This incident is more a symptom of ongoing tensions than a cause,” said Jia Ian Chong, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore.

He said Manila would continue to stand firm in its position while leaving the door open to talks with the Chinese government. For China’s part, “there is little incentive to change course for now given its superior capabilities,” Chong said, adding that the dynamic allows China to absorb public embarrassments like the one in Seoul without changing its broader strategy toward Manila.