People shop for groceries at a supermarket in Manhattan, New York City, August 25, 2026.
Angela Weiss | AFP | Getty Images
Social Security cost-of-living adjustments could be around 3.5% to 3.6% in 2027, pushing the annual adjustment to the highest level in three years, according to new estimates based on government inflation data.
About 75 million Social Security and Supplemental Security income beneficiaries received a 2.8% increase in benefits in 2026, according to the Social Security Administration.
Social Security COLA in 2027 could be 3.5%, considering the latest consumer price index data released Friday, according to Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst. Mr Johnson estimated in August that the COLA could be 3.4%.
Johnson said how the projected COLA changes depends on volatile oil prices. Since the beginning of the Iran war, oil prices have had a significant impact on inflation.
The Alliance on Seniors now forecasts a 3.5% increase in Social Security COLAs, a downward revision from the 3.6% increase it predicted last month. The latest estimates would increase average monthly benefit checks by $67.90, according to the nonpartisan senior group.
Meanwhile, AARP currently projects Social Security COLAs will be 3.6% in 2027, which would increase average benefits by $75 per month for retired workers, the nonprofit group representing Americans 50 and older announced Friday. This is up from the 3.5% COLA estimated by AARP in August.
Over the past decade, Social Security COLAs have ranged from 0% in 2016 to 8.7% in 2023, the highest increase in 40 years due to rising inflation. The Social Security Administration announced in October that the average COLA interest rate over the past 10 years has been about 3.1%.
Social Security When to Expect COLA News in 2027
The 2027 Official Social Security COLA will include an additional month of government inflation data. The Social Security Administration typically announces next year’s changes in October.
Social Security COLAs are determined by the percentage increase in third quarter inflation data from the previous year to the current year.
This calculation is based on a subset of the Consumer Price Index known as the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage and Office Workers (CPI-W). The CPI-W rose 3.5% in August over the past 12 months, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday.
The broader consumer price index rose 3.4% over the past 12 months as the cost of goods and services rose in August.
