Yemen’s Iran-backed rebels captured the strategic Perim Island in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait on Friday, two Yemeni government officials told CNN, potentially expanding Tehran’s influence over another vital global shipping route.
A day earlier, the Houthis captured the port city of Mokha in a bid to take control of the country’s Red Sea coast.
The news sent shockwaves around the world over the potential impact on shipping and oil prices, as well as the risk of opening a new front in the US-Iran war.
Bab al-Mandeb is a key link between Asia and Europe via the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. Although it is not as important to the oil trade as the Strait of Hormuz, it transports essential goods around the world, including millions of barrels of oil every day.
Since the beginning of the US-Iran war, Saudi Arabia has increasingly used the Red Sea export route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, increasing the strategic importance of the strait. Iran virtually does not allow most ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
The development coincides with an escalation in the war between Iran and the United States in the wider region, after Tehran warned this week that it would step up hostilities against the United States, which maintains a strict naval blockade against Iran and continues to launch military attacks on the country.
Yemen plunged into civil war in 2014, with Houthi rebels seizing the capital Sanaa and forcing the internationally recognized government into exile. Saudi Arabia led a military operation to eliminate the rebels the following year. Iran provides weapons and training to the Houthis and exercises some influence over the rebels’ decisions.
The result was a divided country, with the Houthis controlling the capital and northwest, and the government and allied forces controlling much of the south and east. Approximately 22 million people, roughly half of the population, remain in need of humanitarian assistance to this day.
Fighting between Saudi-backed Yemeni forces and the Houthis has been at a stalemate for years, but has escalated in recent weeks as a result of tensions caused by the broader conflict between Iran and the United States. The Red Sea has become a focal point as the Iranian government looks for ways to put pressure on the global economy and extract further concessions from Washington.
The Houthis stepped up attacks last month to seize Mokha from Saudi-backed forces. A few weeks ago, more than 25 Houthi rockets hit the vast port while a commercial ship was unloading, said Abdel Malek al-Shalabi, the port director.
Until Thursday morning, Mokha was under the control of the National Resistance Forces, a Saudi-backed group commanded by Tariq Saleh, vice president of Yemen’s internationally recognized government. Later that day, the government acknowledged that the Houthis owned the town.
As the Houthis advance south, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met twice with US President Donald Trump on Thursday and urged him to attack the Houthis, two sources familiar with the matter told CNN. President Trump did not approve of the U.S. attack, one of the people said. News of the call was first reported by Axios.
In a statement to CNN, a senior administration official said in response to questions about the call: “The United States is committed to protecting our core national security interests, including ensuring freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, while empowering our regional partners to take the lead in managing and solving regional security challenges.” “We are in ongoing dialogue with the governments of Saudi Arabia and the Republic of Yemen regarding regional stability.”
CNN reported Thursday that the United States is increasing support and intelligence for Saudi operations against the Houthis in Yemen. U.S. assistance is currently severely limited and cannot directly participate in attacks or provide refueling or other operational support to Saudi military aircraft, officials told CNN.
In an exclusive interview with CNN earlier this month, Saleh warned that if the Houthis seize Perim Island, which lies directly in the Bab al-Mandeb chokepoint, they could take control of the strait itself. He said it would take “a large (international) army and navy” to remove them.
On Friday, a Houthi military spokesperson confirmed that the Houthis had begun expelling Saudi-backed forces from the remaining areas of Yemen’s west coast that they still hold, and said navigation through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait was “safe for all” except for Saudi vessels.
The capture of Perim and Mocha would further increase the ability of groups trained and supported by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards to interdict traffic in the Red Sea, potentially further increasing Iran’s influence in a war with the United States.
Ahmed Nagi, a senior analyst for Yemen at the International Crisis Group think tank, told CNN that the Houthis are “in a good position to increase their influence around Bab al-Mandeb and can protect themselves from any ground operations from the area.”
An effective blockade of Bab al-Mandeb by the Houthis could open a new front in the war with Iran, necessitate U.S. military intervention, and weaken the U.S. ability to maintain shipping lanes through Hormuz. It could also prevent Saudi Arabia from shipping diesel to Europe at a critical time for the fuel market.
The advance of the Houthis also allows Iran to increase pressure on Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is a U.S. ally and Iran hosts U.S. troops and bases that Tehran says have been used to target Iran. It could also prevent Saudi Arabia from shipping diesel to Europe at a critical time for the fuel market.
A Saudi official told CNN that Saudi Arabia continues to support the Yemeni government and is working closely with partner countries to “ensure freedom of navigation in the Arabian Gulf and Red Sea.”
“Saudi Arabia will also take all necessary measures to ensure the safety of its citizens and residents and the security of its borders,” the official added.
The move will also add further instability to the oil market, which is already under pressure from very few ships passing through Hormuz. Oil prices rose 4% on Thursday, with global benchmark Brent crude hitting $105 a barrel, amid news that the Houthis are gaining strength along the Red Sea. The stock fell 3% on Friday after reports that the foreign ministers of Gulf Arab countries were scheduled to meet with Iran’s foreign minister for the first time since the war.
Beyond the geopolitical implications, this development risks exacerbating Yemen’s humanitarian crisis, already listed by the United Nations as one of the world’s worst.
“The question now is how the Saudi-led coalition will react,” said Crisis Group’s Nagy. “This is not the end of the fight. We will probably see further developments in the coming days.”
