The rapid advance of the Iranian-backed Houthis into Yemen and attacks on Saudi Arabia have left the Gulf Arab kingdom with few options to respond, all at great cost.
Experts say the key message coming from Saudi Arabia is that Riyadh does not want all-out war, but bold moves by the Houthis could still drag Gulf states into a wider conflict.
Mohamed Al-Basha, a risk advisor based in Yemen and Washington, D.C., told CNN that all signs now point to “a large-scale Saudi retaliation, and that is becoming more likely by the day.”
“They don’t have a choice at this point,” he said.
This week, Yemeni rebels seized the strategic island of Perim at the mouth of the Red Sea and the port city of Mokha, aiming to take control of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a vital energy route.
Shortly thereafter, Saudi Arabia’s vital oil pipeline was shut down following a drone attack from Iraq. No political party claimed responsibility for the attack, but US President Donald Trump said Iranian proxies are known to be operating in Iraq and blamed Tehran.
Since the Iran war effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has stepped up its use of the East-West pipeline, redirecting around 5 million barrels of oil per day that was scheduled to wait for oil tankers in the Persian Gulf.
This appears to amplify concerns expressed by Saudi Arabia early last month, when a senior official told CNN that the kingdom was preparing for “multiple coordinated attacks” by Iraqi militias aligned with the Iranian-backed Houthis.
On paper, it looks like a mismatch. On the one hand, wealthy Saudi Arabia has a modern, well-equipped military; On the other side are the impoverished Yemeni rebels. However, eliminating the Houthis proved extremely difficult.
The Houthis, seen by the West and some Gulf states as Iranian proxies with a “motley” militia, have evolved their military and combat tactics over the years. The group gained popularity in the Middle East region after attacking Israel after the Gaza war that resulted from the Hamas-led October 7 attack on Israel.
The Houthis’ demands have not changed. They want to end Saudi attempts to isolate large swathes of northern Yemen controlled by the group through travel and economic blockades. Although they are allied with Iran, they also have their own agenda.
Nasr al-Din Amer, director of the Houthi-run state news agency Sabah, told CNN on Friday that the Houthis will “continue to put pressure” on Saudi Arabia until it “lifts the siege that our enemy Saudi Arabia has unjustly imposed for 12 years,” indicating a clear intention to climb the escalation ladder.
Yemen was plunged into turmoil in 2014 after the Houthis overran the capital, Sanaa, forcing the internationally recognized government into exile. Over the next year, Saudi Arabia led a military operation to eliminate the rebels and maintained a crippling blockade of Houthi-held areas of the country, while continuing to support the internationally recognized government. Meanwhile, Iran provides the Houthis with weapons and training and exercises some influence over the rebels’ decisions.
Despite losing territory, Saudi Arabia has yet to fight back in full force, raising questions about its next move.
Saudi actions in the coming days could mean a return to full-scale war and could have major implications for the U.S.-Iranian conflict.
Gulf states are confronting Iranian-backed groups bent on expanding territorial control of Yemen. When it comes to options, Saudi Arabia has few options.
“Saudi Arabia’s options in a conflict with the Houthis are really limited,” Cinzia Bianco, a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told CNN.
One is to escalate, which would come at great cost to the kingdom, she said.
Bianco said that if Riyadh “goes all out,” it could lead to an endless conflict similar to Yemen’s deadly civil war.
This long-running conflict has plunged Yemen into the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, with approximately 22 million people, roughly half of the country’s population, currently in need of humanitarian assistance.
An all-out war between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis is likely to involve Iran, which has been at war with the United States since February.
“Then it would be difficult to limit this conflict to a purely Yemeni situation rather than a chapter in a broader U.S.-Iranian war in which Saudi Arabia is a combatant on the U.S. side,” Bianco said.
Meanwhile, the United States is unlikely to intervene militarily against the Houthis, especially with the ongoing crisis in Hormuz, upcoming midterm elections, and domestic debate over the use of American resources in the Middle East.
Bianco said President Trump is “not in a position to redouble his efforts in the region at this political moment.”
Behind the scenes, the United States has resisted pressure from Saudi Arabia to engage in new fighting.
He said on Saturday that the Houthis had called the regime and indicated they did not want the United States directly involved in the conflict.
“They want us to stay out of it, and they’re allowing most ships to sail. There’s one country they’re not very happy with, and we’re going to make it right,” Trump said.
The Saudi crown prince met twice with President Trump on Thursday and urged him to attack the Houthis as they advance towards the Red Sea, sources told CNN, but the president refused.
But the United States is sending about 100 military advisers to Saudi Arabia to provide information on military operations against the Houthis, CNN reported this week, citing sources familiar with the effort.
Nawaf Obaid, a senior research fellow at King’s College London’s Department of War Studies and a former Saudi government adviser, told CNN: “Saudi Arabia’s request was never for American airstrikes, only for intelligence purposes.” “So far, that support has been limited,” he says.
Another path is to try to find a political exit from the conflict, but it may be too late for that option.
Over the past few months, Saudi Arabia has exercised “strategic patience” and Riyadh has issued repeated warnings and condemnations to both the Houthis and the Iranians, to no avail, Bianco said.
In response to the attack on the East-West Pipeline, the Saudi Foreign Ministry said that Saudi Arabia had chosen not to react at this stage and instead supported the efforts of the Iraqi government, where the attack was launched, but that it “reserves the right to take all necessary measures to protect its sovereignty.”
Bianco said Saudi Arabia had “exhausted political solutions.”
Even if Riyadh were to strike a deal with the Houthis, it would come at a heavy price.
Mr Al-Basha said it would likely amount to complete submission to Houthi demands. “And that’s a very expensive submission. It’s basically a surrender,” he said.
It is unclear when Saudi Arabia will launch its next retaliatory measures, but the impact is expected to extend beyond the borders of Yemen and Riyadh.
“The Yemeni government’s military operation against the Houthis, with support from the Saudi-led coalition, has already begun and we expect it to intensify significantly in the coming days and even hours,” Saudi geopolitical analyst Salman al-Ansari told CNN, adding that “there could be major surprises on multiple fronts.”
But al-Ansari said Saudi Arabia had no intention of launching an all-out war “without solid, sustained and clear international support.”
He added that the international community “made a grave mistake in not heeding previous warnings from the Saudi and Yemeni governments” regarding the Houthis. “Riyadh now expects the international community to reverse course and fully support Yemen in liberating it from this malicious militia.”
Some say that if the Houthis continue to escalate, Gulf states will have to go to war, with or without international support.
“Saudi Arabia is under attack from the Houthis and the Iraqi Islamic Resistance. We have no choice,” Al-Basha said.
“I don’t want to be in their shoes.”
CNN’s Nick Robertson, Kylie Atwood, Katie Beau Lillis, Thomas Bordeaux and Zachary Cohen contributed to this report.
