A sign displaying the prices of unleaded gasoline and diesel fuel at a Shell gas station on Thursday, September 10, 2026 in San Jose, California, USA.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
U.S. oil prices are once again above $100 a barrel, and gasoline prices are at multi-month highs. But traders on prediction market platforms expect the amount Americans spend at the pump to reach a new high this year.
Gasoline prices peaked at $4.56 per gallon on May 21, according to AAA’s national average. Kalsi traders currently believe there is a 71% chance that the average will exceed $4.60 in 2026.
Calci speculators see a 57% chance of prices rising above $4.80 per gallon and just over 40% chance of rising above $5.00. U.S. gasoline prices hit a record high of just over $5 per gallon in June 2022.
In Karshi, market contracts ask traders whether gas prices will cross different price ranges. Contracts are resolved using AAA data.
Tensions between the United States and Iran have escalated in recent weeks, raising questions about the status of the Strait of Hormuz, a key conduit for global oil supplies, and pushing up commodity prices. on monday, Western Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures It rose 3.5% to more than $103 per barrel.
Karshi traders also believe that the rise in oil prices will continue for a long time. They give a 50-50 chance that gas prices will exceed $4.25 a gallon on Election Day, Nov. 3.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalsi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and minority ownership.
