NEW DELHI, INDIA – SEPTEMBER 12: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the BRICS Summit on September 12, 2026 in New Delhi, India.
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President Donald Trump can now impose tariffs of up to 100% on countries buying oil from Russia, putting China and India squarely in the crosshairs.
The U.S. House of Representatives passed a comprehensive Russia sanctions bill on Wednesday, paving the way for President Trump to impose tariffs on major buyers of Russian energy.
The move comes on the heels of the BRICS summit, where Russian President Vladimir Putin and leaders from the Global South, including China and India, condemned unilateral and secondary sanctions without naming the United States.
Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation, said all five of Russia’s top energy buyers were “very concerned” about the potential application of the bill. The new statutory powers could give President Trump the power to “strike hard and quickly at any time and for any reason.”
China and India will be the most affected as they have leaned heavily into cheaper Russian oil since the Ukraine war broke out in 2022, and the Iran war has further tightened energy supplies. Experts said that while neither China nor India was likely to cut supplies of Russian crude, the tariffs would give the United States more leverage in dealing with New Delhi and China.
“President Trump will sign this into law and retain his tariff powers as leverage,” Ronak D. Desai, a visiting fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, told CNBC. He added that “more than a dozen House Republicans have privately asked leadership to eliminate the tariff provision, fearing price increases on the eve of the midterm elections.”
India is currently negotiating a trade deal with the United States, seeking preferential interest rates compared to its competitors, while Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled to meet with President Trump later this month.
After the Hormuz crisis, India and China’s combined share of Russian oil imports increased from one-fifth to one-third, Kupler said. As of the end of August, China bought half of Russia’s crude oil exports, followed by India with 37%, Turkey with 5% and the European Union with 5%, according to the Energy and Clean Air Research Center.
As it stands, it will be “very difficult” for both countries to replace the roughly 600,000 barrels per day of imports from China via pipeline, plus Russia’s 3.5 million barrels per day of seaborne supply, Ivan Ryabov, head of oil trade analysis at Kupler, told CNBC.
Don’t upset Beijing
Analysts say the United States is unlikely to rattle China by escalating tensions ahead of next week’s summit, but China is expected to ignore efforts aimed at curbing oil purchases.
Martin Chozempa, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said Beijing’s tendency to push back against U.S. sanctions would also limit the scope of Trump’s tariffs. If the bill becomes a reality, “China will definitely retaliate.”
Echoing this sentiment, Eurasia Group’s China Director Dan Wang predicts that the Chinese government will continue importing from Russia, ignoring any regulations, as it prioritizes energy security. A significant reduction in Russian oil and gas imports could undermine China’s energy security, which is “politically unacceptable,” Wang said.
“The U.S. is unlikely to take any action that would upset the apple cart,” said Stephen Olson, a visiting senior fellow at the ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute.
Russia has long been China’s largest supplier of oil and natural gas, accounting for about one-fifth of China’s crude oil imports and 10% of its natural gas consumption.
Olson said the U.S. could find “some leeway” in the timing and size of tariffs if they were to go into effect. He said the Chinese government could issue a statement expressing strong opposition to the bill and then “wait and see what actually happens.”
Ukraine’s sanctions envoy on Wednesday said a halving of oil revenues could force Russia to withdraw from the war within six months, pressuring Asian governments to close loopholes that allow Russian tankers and weapons parts to pass through the region undetected.
anti-American sentiment in india
Following the passage of the Russia sanctions bill on Thursday, India’s Ministry of External Affairs said: “India remains firmly committed to ensuring energy security for its 1.4 billion people…The government will work closely with India’s trade and industry bodies to address the impact of these developments.”
The outlook for tariffs is in a particularly difficult position because India has yet to finalize a trade deal with the United States and is increasingly reliant on Russian oil supplies.
But experts told CNBC that India cannot afford to trade barrels from Moscow, nor does New Delhi have the “political discretion” to do so under US pressure.
“The[Indian]public mood toward the United States is becoming increasingly negative,” Harsh Pant, vice president of research and foreign policy at the Observer Research Foundation, told CNBC, adding that recent U.S. moves to impose tariffs “will only accelerate this process.”
After the Iran war, New Delhi replaced barrels from the Middle East with supplies primarily from Russia and some from Venezuela. Russian crude accounted for more than 50% of India’s crude purchases in June and July, and more than 40% in August, according to Kpler data.
“The expectation expressed by the US government is that it wants India to stop importing Russian oil, either directly or indirectly,” said Arpit Chaturvedi, South Asia advisor at strategic advisory firm Teneo. This would “impact India’s economic choices and would be a difficult demand for New Delhi to comply with,” he added.
In August last year, the United States imposed punitive tariffs of 25% on India for purchasing Russian crude oil, and raised tariffs on imports from New Delhi to 50%. In February, tariffs were lowered to 18%, and President Trump claimed that India had “agreed to stop buying Russian oil and buy more from the United States and possibly Venezuela.”
However, New Delhi does not support the details shared by President Trump, insisting that ensuring energy security is the sole driver for energy purchases.
Atman Trivedi, a partner at Washington-based DGA Albright Stonebridge Group, told CNBC that “the risk of additional U.S. tariffs on India poses an impediment to any bilateral trade agreement in the near or near term.”
Trivedi said the bill would provide the president with new sanctions, but he would have the right to choose whether to use them, adding that the bill includes exceptions for certain situations.
He said the Indian government would likely “quietly seek confirmation” from the White House whether it could qualify for an exemption.
