U.S. President Donald Trump speaks on stage during the first day of the 2026 Republican National Convention at the American Airlines Center on September 9, 2026 in Dallas, Texas.
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images News | Getty Images
President Donald Trump’s flagship super PAC, which had been hoarding a $403 million war chest for months, has finally opened the floodgates to spending. The rapid deployment of Make America Great Again Inc. funds is reshaping some of the closest Congressional races heading into the 2026 midterm elections.
For the Republicans, the cavalry couldn’t come soon enough.
Republican candidates have been wondering for months when President Trump’s vast financial resources will come to their aid, as their Democratic opponents denounce them, sentiment on the economy worsens and the heated Senate race puts Republicans on the defensive.
But with less than seven weeks until Election Day, some of the best advertising space already reserved, and the most valuable voters under attack from all directions, the question is how much value Trump’s allies can squeeze out of such a large sum of money.
“They can still put that money to good use, but they’ve sailed the ship as best as they can,” said Joshua Wolf, a partner at Democratic political media firm A|L Media Strategy and co-founder of Warchest, a campaign budgeting platform used by Democratic campaigns. “It’s never too late to make an impact, but they are certainly missing out on an opportunity to optimize value for their money.”
Still, finding a place to spend it is not a problem.
“Could it be implemented? Absolutely,” said Ken Goldstein, a political science professor at the University of San Francisco and former president of a political consulting firm who worked for both the Democratic and Republican campaigns. “Does it get a little harder later in the game? Absolutely. But there are many ways to utilize that money.”
cash gap
Entering July, Democratic candidates held a roughly 2-to-1 cash advantage in seven Senate battleground districts and had a combined stockpile of about $75 million, compared to Republicans’ $38 million in cash, according to a CNBC analysis of the latest Federal Election Commission filings.
The state with the largest difference was Texas. Democratic candidate James Talarico had $21.5 million in cash on hand as of July, more than 12 times the $1.8 million held by Republican challenger Ken Paxton, according to FEC records.
The advantage of early funding gives campaigns more time to shape their campaigns before most voters are fully engaged.
“Democrats tend to push their advertising a little faster and try to define the race before it’s established,” Goldstein said. He said Republicans have historically been more willing to wait on the theory that voters, especially in midterm elections, don’t start paying close attention until closer to Election Day.
Over the past two weeks, three Trump-linked super PACs secured more than $136.5 million in ad spending across the House and Senate races, according to CNBC calculations based on AdImpact data.
The newly formed No Going Back PAC alone has secured more than $98.5 million in ad spending, with most of its spending focused on competitive Senate races, according to AdImpact, which tracks money spent on political ads and future ad bookings.
In Texas, Trump’s MAGA company contributed about $10 million, while Elon Musk-backed America PAC added about $2.6 million, according to FEC filings.
“Obviously it’s not too little, it’s not too late. It’s a lot of money,” said Jaime Vasil Winkelfuss, group vice president of Candidates + Causes at Basis Technologies, a digital advertising and media platform. “Rather, the question is: how much are they willing to pay?”
Logistics obstacles
The Federal Communications Act entitles endorsed candidates to a station’s “minimum bid” for the last 60 days before a general election, meaning they get the best possible price for their airtime.
Super PACs like MAGA Inc. have no such protection. Political advertising consultants say they can raise and spend virtually unlimited amounts of money, but market rates are often two to three times the rate candidates pay for equivalent airtime.
Major political groups also began securing advertising space for the fall months in advance. In April, the Republican-leaning Senate Leadership Fund PAC announced $342 million in ad bookings in eight Senate districts, while the Democratic-leaning House Majority PAC booked $272 million in 68 media markets, citing the need to “lock in low rates early” and prioritize expensive and crowded markets.
By mid-September, local TV affiliates in major battleground states were nearing saturation, according to data from AdImpact, and the squeeze was especially acute in smaller states, Winkelfoos told CNBC.
When inventories are tight, super PACs often funnel excess funds into streaming, digital platforms, email, and text messages. However, pricing for these ads is auction-based, and dynamic rates can rise quickly in hotly contested ZIP codes.
“This system will absorb more money,” said Michael Beach, a Republican digital strategist who founded Cross Screen Media, a political and public service announcement technology platform. “But costs are starting to add up, and we need to determine whether the additional dollars are reaching voters who deserve the higher price.”
At the same time, there are more races in the Republican Party demanding those resources.
Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rates seven Senate races as toss-ups, with five of them (Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio and Texas) held by Republicans. Texas and Iowa seceded from the Republican minority in August after public and private polls showed close races, even though President Trump had a 13-point lead in both states in 2024.
Republicans did not budget for a close race in Texas. The Senate Leadership Fund’s $342 million advertising plan in April bypassed Texas entirely.
However, that expanded map can be bidirectional.
Democrats benefit by forcing Republicans to spend more in usually safe red states. But the Cook report says the partisan makeup of the Senate map gives Republicans a “structural advantage.”
An expensive pickup opportunity can also be an expensive diversion. For example, Democrats invested heavily in Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 Texas Senate race, which he narrowly lost to Republican Ted Cruz.
“There’s an argument that if you have fewer resources, you’re better off spending it in fewer places,” A|L Media Strategy’s Wolf told CNBC.
Preparations are underway for the 2026 Republican National Convention to be held on September 8, 2026 at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas.
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images
argument for waiting
Despite the logistical hurdles, some experts say Trump’s delayed spending could come at a good time.
“The weight of the evidence is that spending before September is likely to be ineffective,” John Sides, a political scientist at Vanderbilt University who studies campaigns and elections, told CNBC. “While we can’t say exactly how close to Election Day is really the best time, it makes more sense to start advertising now rather than spending money all summer long.”
Said is a co-author of a 2022 study that looked at more than 4,500 elections and found that summer TV ads had little impact on election results, but ads in September and October did. The study also found that advertising had more influence in down-ballot races than in presidential elections.
“Spending is most effective when voters are less familiar with the candidates,” Said told CNBC.
But timing is only half the battle. The payoff for Trump’s delayed spending may ultimately depend on who these ads reach.
“Team Trump had a lot less money than Kamala Harris,” Beach said of the 2024 election cycle. “But Team Harris spread the money across a much wider range of people. Team Trump was more effective at concentrating the media, targeting persuasive voters, and mobilizing their own supporters.”
Even targeted advertising ultimately reduces profits.
“The first, second, third, fourth ad is going to be more important than the 10,000th or 20,000th ad,” Goldstein said.
Mr. Winkelfoos said that in the most competitive markets, repeated advertising can make it increasingly difficult to find convincing new voters.
“In some districts and states, persuading voters may be just a few hundred people you’re trying to reach,” she says. “Voters are already tired of advertising, so we have to figure out a way to reach them without blinding them.”
The next measure of President Trump’s firepower arrives on Sunday. MAGA’s latest FEC filing covers its activities through August 31st and will provide a roadmap for where it is directing money and which battlegrounds it is prioritizing in the final spurt until Election Day.
