Berlin —
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) faces a disastrous result in state elections, exit polls show, and is expected to be squeezed by both the rising far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and left-wing parties.
The AfD is expected to win with 38% in the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania, just two weeks after the party posted its best ever result in Saxony-Anhalt, according to exit polls from German public broadcaster.
Merz’s CDU is currently below the 5% threshold for parliamentary representation, increasing pressure on her beleaguered leadership.
In a speech after the exit polls were announced, Merz described the results in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania as a “disaster”.
“We cannot gloss over the results in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania,” Merz said. “It’s a disaster. The CDU fought hard, but in the end it was the CDU that was crushed by the polarization between the[Social Democrats]and the AfD.”
The chancellor remained defiant, even as she talked about the need for reforms to address Germany’s economic problems and deepening divisions. “The answer cannot be to go back to the good old days,” he says.
In another election on Sunday, exit polls show Berlin’s left-wing Die Linke party leading with 26%, followed by the CDU and the Greens.
As the results for both regions were read out, groans could be heard from within the CDU observer mission in Berlin.
Meanwhile, Reuters footage showed the audience at Die Linke’s watch party cheering and chanting the name of her main candidate, Elif Elalp, as she spoke.
“Love and justice have triumphed over hate in our city,” Elalp told supporters. “And today we showed that together and sent this signal to the world.”
Prior to Sunday’s predictions, the CDU’s worst ever result in a state election was 75 years ago in 1951, when it won 9% in Bremen, the only time the party had finished in single digits in a state election.
AfD co-leader Alice Weidel was overjoyed after the exit polls were released, telling CNN that her party is “clearly Germany’s new people’s party.”
“We have overtaken the CDU. The people want policy changes,” Weidell said. He said Merz had “suffered great damage” and added: “I don’t think the CDU can continue with Friedrich Merz, who has a weak chancellor.”
In Berlin, the AfD is expected to come in fourth place with 13.5%. Although not comparable to gains elsewhere, the results are a striking sign of how far-right support is gaining ground in international capitals as well. In Berlin’s last state elections in 2023, the AfD won 9.1% of the vote.
Sunday’s general election was a critical moment for Merz, arriving just two weeks after the AfD dealt a devastating blow to the party with its historic victory in Saxony-Anhalt with 44% of the vote.
The result sent shockwaves through German politics and fueled speculation about Merz’s future as chancellor.
In Mecklenburg-West Pomerania, as well as in the former East German state of Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD campaigned for mass deportations of illegal immigrants, an end to military aid to Ukraine, and closer ties with Russia, while seeking to capitalize on anger over Germany’s economic disparities and dissatisfaction with Merz. The AfD’s state premiership candidate previously told CNN that the party’s approach is comparable to the Trump administration’s “America First” policy.
The election was also a test of popularity for Manuela Schwesig, a center-left Social Democrat who has ruled the state since 2017. Schwesig, the first female state premier of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania, campaigned hard to prevent further advances by the AfD, warning of “dark clouds” in reference to the far-right party at her last rally. Her campaign focused on jobs, education and social cohesion.
The exit poll showed the SPD narrowly behind the AfD with 36.5% of the vote.
The state faces a severe shortage of skilled workers due to an aging population and declining birthrate. According to Reuters, around 50,000 people with immigrant backgrounds work in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania, playing a key role in the economy while countering far-right anti-immigrant sentiment.
The political situation in Berlin was markedly different. The provincial elections in the capital were expected to be a close contest between Die Linke and the CDU.
Housing affordability was a central issue during the campaign, as rents have been rising in the city for a decade and a significant housing shortage is expected in the coming years.
