Berlin —
“It’s a disaster.”
These were the words of a seemingly depressed German Chancellor Friedrich Merz as he addressed his party, just after the center-right Christian Democratic Party (CDU) suffered crushing defeats in local elections for the second and third time in a month.
Sunday’s election results in the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania and the city of Berlin not only reopened the wounds barely healed by the Sept. 6 election in Saxony-Anhalt, but also plunged the party into new depths of unpopularity.
Voters are abandoning Chancellor Angela Merkel and Konrad Adenauer’s mainstream conservative party, the CDU, in favor of fringe groups, most notably the far-right, pro-Russian, anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD).
Speculation about Mertz’s future had been mounting before Sunday’s state election. In their aftermath, he is fighting for political survival.
German Chancellor Merz calls state election results a ‘disaster’ amid rise of far-right forces
Merz vowed to remain in office Monday, saying in a speech after a meeting of party leaders that no questions about his position had been raised by “anyone last night or this morning.”
He admitted to reporters that the result was “dramatic,” “unprecedented” and a “huge blow.” He also publicly acknowledged that his popularity was a “factor.”
However, he stated that the government is “determined to confront the historic challenges facing our country,” and aimed to continue in the role.
“Like many other countries around the world, Germany is undergoing a fundamental transformation of its political party system,” he said, pledging to press ahead with the reforms he believes the country needs.
“It’s going to take a lot of force, but I’m ready to call it out.”
In Mecklenburg-West Pomerania, the CDU received 4.9% of the vote, falling short of the 5% threshold for passage in parliament.
The numbers from the Northeast represent the bottom of the CDU. This surpassed their previous worst performance in the Bremen elections, which took place 75 years ago, when they won 9% of the vote.
In the Mecklenburg-West Pomeranian election, the AfD won with 38.2% of the vote, although it fell far short of a majority. In Berlin, it came in third place, with a 7% increase in votes.
The CDU was the incumbent political party in Germany’s capital, but it lost power to the far-left party Die Linke. CDU fell to second place.
Sunday’s result, combined with the disastrous defeat in Saxony-Anhalt earlier this month, added to the misery for Merz, who was already in trouble. Some believe that this situation has only one possible outcome: a change of prime minister.
“This is the worst possible outcome for Merz and the CDU,” Jana Prielin, head of the Berlin office of the European Council on Foreign Relations, told CNN upon announcing the results.
He said he saw no viable options for Merz to continue leading the government, adding: “He has definitely lost control over his party, lost a lot of authority… and there is no way to reinstall the party.”
Following the AfD’s victory in the Saxony-Anhalt state election, the party’s co-leader Alice Weidel declared that Germany would hold national elections by the end of the year. She further emphasized on Sunday that “the CDU cannot continue with Friedrich Merz with a weak chancellor.”
With two more elections unfavorable to the CDU and Merz’s popularity plummeting, this assessment seems less speculative.
“Mr. Mertz can’t just sit back and throw in the towel, and we don’t want him to do that,” Sudha David Wilp, vice president and senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund think tank, told CNN. “He’s still trying, but he’s not out of the woods yet.”
If such a major disruption were to occur, it would have repercussions throughout Europe. Germany, the EU’s most populous and economically powerful country, has long stood as a rock of political stability and is a key supporter of Ukraine in its fight against Russia.
The Christian Democrats have long been the dominant political force in Germany. Of the 10 people who have served as chancellor since World War II, the party has held the office six times, including a long 16-year stint under Chancellor Angela Merkel.
The September poll sums up Mr. Mertz’s woes. The level of discontent across the country is tear-jerking. An ARD public television poll released earlier this month found that only 13% of Germans were satisfied with his job.
David Wilp told CNN that the AfD’s victory in the election was “built into” the CDU’s political calculations, but the magnitude of the result was worse than expected.
“There is a sense within the CDU that something has to happen to change this dynamic, as the AfD marches in and threatens the very existence of the CDU,” she said.
The region that makes up the former East Germany is an AfD stronghold, but Merz’s problem lies in the party’s growing popularity across the country. In two other state elections this year, the AfD doubled its share of the vote but did not win either.
Nationally, opinion polls show that if snap elections were held now, the AfD would become Germany’s largest party.
Merz took office last May promising to halve the AfD’s vote share, but so far the opposite has been true.
The pressure on the Prime Minister last week was so great that other CDU state premiers felt the need to rally around him. They issued a joint statement Wednesday saying public support would come through “listening” and “political action” rather than “through personnel debates,” without mentioning him by name.
It is not unusual for a prime minister to be replaced mid-term, but dismissal under these circumstances is not unusual. Merz will also be the shortest-serving prime minister since unification. His conservatives and his grand coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), will need to agree on his choice of successor, which will not be easy.
For David-Wilp, replacing Merz would “really leave us with a leadership crisis at a time when everyone has high hopes for Berlin.”
Puglierin said Merz’s rise to power raised hopes across Europe that he would restore stability and “unite the club” after the disastrous last coalition led by Olaf Scholz, as the United States under President Donald Trump dismantled the “Pax Americana” that underpinned international relations after World War II.
Those hopes could end in disappointment, Prielin said. “As the country turns inward…we are grappling with a political system that no longer functions in the way it has since the founding of the Federal Republic in 1949.”
Merz’s problems began even before he officially got the keys to the prime minister’s office.
It took two attempts before he was officially confirmed as prime minister, an unprecedented scenario. He then broke his campaign promise not to increase Germany’s borrowing and released $5 trillion in spending on defense and infrastructure.
Prielyn said personal characteristics such as poor communication skills, impulsivity and lack of emotional control “are driving people away from him.”
In April, Mertz made controversial comments about President Trump’s war with Iran. The prime minister said the US president was being “humiliated” by Iran in its efforts to end the war.
The comment angered the president and changed Berlin’s charm offensive against the White House. Before Mertz’s comments, one official told CNN that he was glad to remain one of the few allies who did not receive a sharp rebuke from the U.S. president.
But there’s no denying that a combination of factors beyond Merz’s control are impeding progress.
“The geopolitical context of the challenges facing Germany, such as the war with Ukraine, German inflation, and energy costs, all mean that Germany’s economic model has been upended,” David Wilp said.
“Mr. Merz was never a well-loved person and was not the first choice to be chancellor,” he added, but external factors and his “lack of communication skills led to a crisis in Berlin.”
Are there no other strong candidates?
Merz may still be saved by the lack of a clear successor as chancellor and the dire situation the government would be in if Merz were removed.
Neither member of Germany’s two-party coalition wants the government to fall, given that opinion polls are not in their favor, Puglierin said. A new coalition would likely mean a return to three-party government, a formula that failed spectacularly under Olaf Scholz in recent memory. Repeating that process “will not solve Merz’s problem,” Prielin said.
Another challenge is finding qualified candidates who are ready to take over. The name on many people’s lips is that of Hendrik Wust, the 51-year-old governor of North Rhine-Westphalia.
“He is seen as the obvious successor within the CDU. He is not an experienced politician, but he may have to step up sooner than expected,” David Wilp said.
Wust, a former lawyer, has been leading the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous and industrialized state, since 2021. One of the few remaining regions where the CDU has a stable majority, the canton will hold its own state elections in early 2027.
“I would like to become prime minister one day, but it is not possible under these circumstances,” Puglierin said, adding that the elections in North Rhine-Westphalia were crucial for the CDU.
“It’s a risky gamble to change horses at such short notice,” Puglierin said, but added that he believed Wust was the only candidate the SPD would agree to cooperate with if Merz was excluded.
But Wust said he wanted to focus on winning the state election, and Merz said he had his full support.
