The prolific Pacific hurricane season driven by Super El Niño shows no signs of slowing down, with another tropical threat taking shape in Hawaii just one day after Hurricane Polo exploded into a Category 5 monster off the coast of Mexico.
El Niño provided extremely warm water during this year’s Pacific hurricane season, acting like rocket fuel for the storms and minimizing wind shear that would destroy them. As the planet heats up from fossil fuel pollution, El Niño is adding another helping hand to already warmer-than-normal oceans.
So far, 18 named storms, including three Category 5 hurricanes, are roaming the eastern and central Pacific Ocean with two months left in the season. 16 occur in the Eastern Pacific Basin, where up to 15 storms typically form throughout the season.
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Later this week, Hawaii faces its third approaching hurricane of the season, but it could be the strongest yet. A new tropical cyclone is gaining strength and is poised to approach the island chain by the end of the week.
This may be the first time since at least the 1950s that three hurricanes have come within 100 miles of Hawaii’s mainland in one season.
Tropical Storm 15-E was about 600 miles south-southeast of the state’s Big Island as of late Tuesday night local time, according to the National Hurricane Center. It is expected to pass near the Big Island as a hurricane on Saturday, bringing heavy rain, damaging winds and dangerous waves.
The National Hurricane Center warned Tuesday night that “catastrophic, life-threatening flooding and landslides are again possible” in parts of the Big Island and Maui.
A tropical warning could be issued for parts of the state later today.
The low pressure system is expected to become a tropical storm by Wednesday and reach hurricane strength by Thursday night local time.
It is expected to approach the Big Island of Hawaii as a Category 3 hurricane on Saturday night. At the time, its center was only 80 miles from the Big Island’s southern coastline.
Hurricane Lara also approached the Big Island in mid-August as a Category 1 storm, causing devastating flooding there. On the other side of the state, Hurricane Lowell hit Kauai and Niihau as a Category 2 storm in early September.
Noro’s approach as a potential major hurricane means wind damage is a considerable threat. Tropical storm-force winds of more than 40 mph are possible on the south side of Hawaii Island from Friday through at least Saturday, and hurricane-force winds of more than 125 mph are possible on the south side of the Big Island. Stronger wind gusts are possible at higher elevations on the island.
The threat of flooding will increase ahead of the system’s closest approach. Rain is expected to begin late Wednesday on the Big Island and spread to Maui, Lanai and Molokai late Thursday or early Friday.
Ten to 15 inches of rain could fall on the Big Island into Sunday, with up to 35 inches possible in the steepest terrain, according to the National Hurricane Center. Mountains push air upwards, squeezing out more moisture that falls as downpours. Lara dumped more than 40 inches of rain on parts of the Big Island, and the results were devastating.
On Maui, 5 to 10 inches are possible, but isolated amounts are up to 20 inches. About 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected in other parts of the mainland.
Dangerous waters will expand offshore and peak on Friday and Saturday. The rough conditions are likely to continue into the weekend and into next week, even as the hurricane begins moving westward from the island Sunday night into Monday.
Earlier this week, Hurricane Polo exploded from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in just 24 hours, demonstrating just what the extremely warm Pacific Ocean is capable of.
This is called extreme rapid strengthening, where wind speeds increase by more than 58 miles per hour over a 24-hour period. Polo met that criteria as sustained wind speeds increased to 110 mph from Monday into Tuesday morning.
The National Hurricane Center announced Tuesday morning that the rapid rate of intensification was “truly remarkable” and one of the fastest on record in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Hurricane Patricia set a 24-hour strength record in the Eastern Pacific Ocean in 2015 with winds of 190 mph. Polo is comparable to Hurricane Otis in 2023, which had wind speeds of 165 miles per hour in 21 hours before devastating Acapulco, Mexico. As the Earth and oceans warm due to fossil fuel pollution, hurricanes are rapidly becoming more intense.
Polo’s winds reached up to 180 mph Tuesday afternoon, making it the strongest storm on Earth so far this year, along with two super typhoons in the western Pacific.
As of Wednesday morning, Polo was a very strong Category 4 hurricane about 320 miles offshore from the southern Mexican state of Guerrero.
Polo is not expected to make landfall there, but it is bringing rain and tropical storm-force winds to parts of the coast. Heavy rains are the most serious threat to polo and can cause life-threatening flooding and landslides in the region.
Rainfall totals in the coastal states of Guerrero and Michoacán could reach 3 to 6 inches by Thursday, with some spots reaching 8 inches. Two to four inches of rain could fall along the coasts of Oaxaca, Colima and Jalisco.
