Brigadier General Christoph Huber attends a public ceremony commemorating the expansion of Germany’s military commitment to Lithuania on February 4, 2026 in Kaunas, Lithuania.
Parius Pelekis | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Danish intelligence officials have warned that Russia could launch a “limited” military attack against NATO members in the coming months, saying the Kremlin appears to be more willing to take risks after more than four-and-a-half years of war with Ukraine.
Denmark’s Defense Intelligence Service (DDIS) on Thursday identified a “low but increasing risk” that Russia could carry out isolated attacks with long-range weapons against infrastructure critical to supporting Ukraine.
“A limited military strike is a desperate move on the part of Russia and is likely to occur in the coming months, as well as an enhanced hybrid attack,” the report said.
“The aim would be to divert European resources away from supporting Ukraine and sow division within NATO if the alliance cannot agree on a collective response.”
DDIS added that there were no signs that Russia would launch a full-scale invasion of NATO countries, but said the possibility could not be ruled out.
Russia may also send a limited number of troops to NATO member states on its borders, possibly without national emblems, DDIS said. But he said such accumulations are difficult to hide and would take months to prepare.
The new threat assessment joins a chorus of warnings to Russia from Europe’s top security officials and lawmakers in recent days.
NATO countries that share borders with Russia include Finland, Norway, and Poland, as well as the Baltic states Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania.
The Polish government announced Thursday that a fire at a Starlink ground station in the country was an act of sabotage aimed at disrupting internet services, including for the Ukrainian military.
Polish Deputy Prime Minister Krzysztof Gaukowski said that although those responsible for the fire had not yet been identified, “many indications suggest that this is consistent with Russia’s new offensive doctrine,” Reuters reported.
A spokesperson for the Russian Embassy in London did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment. The Kremlin had previously denied involvement in similar incidents.
Danish intelligence also warned that Russia would intensify its hybrid warfare by carrying out further attacks against Western countries and NATO, “with a greater impact on targeted countries than in the past.”
These could include large-scale cyber-attacks that cause significant damage to critical societal functions and acts of sabotage with a high risk of casualties, DDIS said.
