riyadh, saudi arabia —
We landed in the scorching heat of the Saudi capital several hours late, as additional security concerns closed airspace and delayed flights.
The hot, dusty streets were illuminated with decorative green lights celebrating National Day, and hundreds of electronic billboards displayed swords and the words of the Saudi flag, which appeared to be fluttering as if blown in the breeze.
Just a few days ago, thick black smoke was seen billowing from fuel tanks near the international airport after Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels targeted Riyadh for the first time in years. This is a significant escalation of a violent regional conflict that currently directly affects the United States.
“This is a very serious situation for Americans,” one former Gulf official told CNN.
Between the Iran and Yemen conflicts, Saudi oil is “currently strangled between two chokepoints, which will have a knock-on effect on future prices,” the former official added.
Of course, Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest oil exporter, pumping millions of barrels a day into global markets, giving the kingdom unparalleled influence over prices and ultimately what Americans pay at the pump.
However, the US-Israel war against Iran that began on February 28 resulted in the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, effectively cutting off not only Saudi Arabia’s most important export route, but also those of other Gulf Arab states.
Now, as the Houthis and other Iranian proxies step up their own attacks, Saudi Arabia’s critical backup route is also under threat, with potentially devastating effects on global oil supplies and U.S. consumers already enduring historically high prices for gasoline and diesel.
“I don’t think the United States fully understands the impact that this deteriorating security situation is having or the long-term implications that it will have,” said Neil Quilliam, an expert on energy policy, geopolitics and foreign affairs at Chatham House think tank in London.
“This is not necessarily related to the current price of oil, whether it stays at $100 a barrel or goes up to $109 a barrel. What’s happening in Hormuz, for example, is structural. We can’t go back to where we were before February 28,” Quilliam told CNN.
In recent weeks, attacks by Iranian-backed Iraqi militias on Saudi Arabia’s vital east-west pipeline have spilled millions of barrels of exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
There has also been a series of surprise military advances by the Houthis, who in recent weeks have seized effective control of the crucial Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a strategic waterway at the mouth of the Red Sea where much of Saudi oil exports have been diverted since the Iran war, and declared a blockade of Saudi shipping.
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who agreed to a defense deal with the United States last year, was wary of unexpected setbacks and personally requested U.S. military intervention, but his request was rejected, a person familiar with the matter told CNN.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested in recent remarks that the decision could be revisited. However, US President Donald Trump has made it clear that the current red line is to carry out attacks against the Houthis and says the US is in dialogue with them.
“The Houthis are calling us and they don’t want to fight us,” President Trump told reporters earlier this month.
Trump added, referring to Saudi Arabia, “just one of the countries that they’re not very happy with.” “And we will make it right.”
Meanwhile, the kingdom’s unrest and dissatisfaction appear to be gradually increasing, spilling over into the annual National Day celebrations.
Widely publicized drone and fireworks displays were abruptly canceled across the country amid threats of new attacks by the Houthis. Organizers say it has simply been postponed until further notice.
But at a National Day celebration in Riyadh, where families ate while patriotic songs echoed in the room, there was a growing sense that the national mood was darkening.
“Of course, not everything that the two countries want from each other can be achieved,” one diner, who only gave his first name, told CNN.
“But we are being held by the throat and President Trump should attack the Houthis because they are thugs who want to disrupt global trade,” he added.
Still, there are good reasons for President Trump to hold back, especially to avoid opening a potentially painful second front just seven months after launching a pernicious and ongoing conflict with Iran.
There may also be firm reservations about the effectiveness of US airstrikes, given that last year’s 50-day punitive and costly US-led bombing campaign ended in a ceasefire and did not permanently undermine the Houthis’ resolve.
But hesitation to intervene is also a risk, further undermining America’s credibility as a reliable security partner in the region, already undermined by the Iran war, which leaves U.S. allies in the Gulf feeling at risk.
“It was a complete mistake not to fully support Saudi Arabia militarily against the Houthis,” a former Gulf official told CNN.
“This is an international issue, which is why the lack of U.S. response is a failure of U.S. policy,” the former official added.
There is also a serious economic risk that Saudi oil exports will be further curtailed.
The United States is the world’s largest oil producer, but it is not immune to the turmoil in the Middle East. Contrary to President Trump’s suggestion that the US government’s limited reliance on the region’s oil protects it from disruption, crude oil is traded on global markets. Threatening supplies in the Middle East is driving up prices around the world, and U.S. drivers are feeling it.
A decline in Saudi exports would mean higher prices for everyone. This may be President Trump’s move to avoid these kinds of sensitive political pressure points as the crucial November midterm elections loom.
In other words, Yemen and the Houthis may also seem like a distant problem to Americans, who are understandably weary of foreign intervention and struggling with rising costs of living.
But from the scorching heat and tensions of Riyadh, with its green flags and patriotic flags, Saudi Arabia’s problems look a lot like America’s.
