With bond yields hovering near the highest levels in decades, some investment experts say the era of TINA is over.
In investment parlance, TINA stands for “No Alternative” and is an abbreviation for the idea that under certain market conditions, stocks are the best way to get a significant positive return on your investment. This idea gained traction in the years following the 2007-2009 bear market. At the time, a long period of low interest rates reduced investor demand for low-risk debt products, such as government bonds, which offered little yield.
“TINA was never an investment strategy; it was a vibe,” says Eileen Olson, a certified financial planner and founder of South Carolina-based Emerald Wealth. “For more than a decade, near-zero interest rates drove people into stocks because there was nothing else to do.”
Things are a little different now. While investors continue to pile into stocks (the S&P 500 hit an all-time high on Oct. 6), U.S. Treasury yields are rising amid rising inflation and tight monetary policy. As of Wednesday, the yield on one-year Treasury bills was 4.442% and the yield on 10-year Treasury bills was 5.35%, the highest levels since April 2002.
“A lot of investors haven’t adjusted yet,” Olson added. “Because over the past 15 years, they’ve been trained to think stocks are the only game. That’s recency bias, and it’s one of the most expensive habits in investing.”
Over the long term, bonds have typically delivered lower average returns than stocks. But government bonds have several advantages, including lower volatility and virtually guaranteed stable income over the life of the bond if held to maturity. With even the least risky bonds now paying interest rates that rival the returns investors can earn on stocks (at least in the short term), financial experts say it’s worth reconsidering whether bonds have a role in your portfolio.
Stocks and Bonds: Ask yourself, “What is this money for?”
Considering an investment’s potential return can help determine your asset allocation, but experts also say you should strongly consider your financial goals and time horizon. Diversification across different assets in a portfolio is not only a way to hedge risk, but also a way to achieve different goals, Olson says.
“Before you ask, ‘Stocks or bonds?’ ask, ‘What is this money for?'” she says. “The money you need to build a house in two years, your retirement income in five years, and the money you need for your grandchildren in 20 years should all be invested equally.”
For goals you want to achieve over 10 years, experts say it generally makes sense to gravitate toward stocks. The stock market can crash at any time and sometimes, but by keeping your money invested for 10 years or more, you can usually withstand short-term declines and take advantage of the market’s long-term upward trajectory.
According to The Hartford Fund, the S&P 500 posted positive returns in more than 98% of the 10 years from 1937 to 2025. Since 1957, annual returns have averaged about 10%, according to Fidelity. The average return over the 10-year period from 2016 to the end of 2025 was nearly 15%, according to a brokerage report.
“For investors with less time, the probability of negative returns over that period increases for each year shorter than 10 years,” said Joseph Bohan, a Massachusetts-based CFP and owner of Parkmount Financial Partners.
If you have medium-term goals, say five years out, you should consider a Treasury bill with a maturity that fits that time frame, experts say. Because the Treasury is supported by the government, there is virtually no risk of default. This means that investors currently earning more than 5% annually on five-year government bonds are almost guaranteed for the next five years if they hold the bonds to maturity. Experts say this is a big issue if you’re looking to buy a home, for example. Investing in bonds means you can leverage your savings to make extra money without worrying that a double-digit drop in the stock market could wipe out part of your down payment.
And if you have cash stashed away for short-term goals and need access to it quickly, there’s another alternative to both stocks and bonds. That’s cash. According to Bankrate, you can sometimes find high-yield savings accounts with annual returns of more than 4.25%, even after years of paying virtually nothing.
“For the first time in years, investors can earn enough compensation to hold the money they need right away (in cash or bonds),” Olson says. “You don’t have to sell your stocks and make payments during a downturn, and you can let your stocks work for you over the long term.”
Regardless of your money goals, it’s generally unwise to make investment decisions that could affect your long-term financial plans based on temporary circumstances. Working with a financial advisor to deal with changes in the economic environment can help you make rational decisions based on your personal financial situation.
