A sign at Rutter’s gas station near Milton, Pennsylvania, displays the prices for regular gasoline and diesel.
Paul Weaver | Light Rocket | Getty Images
Affordability is seen as one of the biggest issues for voters in the lead-up to the 2026 midterm elections. And gasoline prices, one of the items consumers are under the most pressure on, are expected to continue rising until election day.
Speculators at prediction market platform Kalsi predict there is an 87% chance that the national average AAA gasoline price will still be above $4 a gallon on Nov. 3.
However, while they expect prices to remain above that mark, they believe they could fall from current levels, with only a 42% chance of the average exceeding $4.25 on Election Day. As of Thursday, the national average was $4.36 per gallon.
Gasoline prices peaked at an average of $4.56 a gallon in late May, after initially rising in March following the start of the Iran war and Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a key corridor for oil exports from the Middle East. It then fell to $3.79 a gallon in early July, but rose again for the rest of the summer.
However, diesel prices hit a new high in September, reaching about $6.53 per gallon on September 22nd. Prices have since fallen to $6.28 a gallon, but Kalsi traders say that number remained above $6 a gallon 68% of the time as of Nov. 3.
Higher diesel prices will especially impact states with large agricultural industries, such as Iowa and Kansas, and states such as Alaska, which rely on diesel fuel for electricity. All three locations are home to tight races in this November’s U.S. Senate elections.
Gasoline prices remain high, making it more likely that Democrats will flip the Senate. Carsi traders give the party a 63% chance of wresting the Senate from Republican control.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalsi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and minority ownership.
