Experts say the Trump administration’s cuts to weather satellites will set the country back nearly a decade. Loss of data used to observe, predict and study extreme weather events could hinder the country’s major advances in weather forecasting for years to come.
The findings come from a new report released Friday by the Government Accountability Office and a letter sent Monday by Democratic lawmakers to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
GAO’s report details the impact of budget cuts made to the new geostationary weather satellite development program. These large satellites orbit the Earth at a fixed distance, centered on a specific location on Earth. They capture images of the swirling clouds and storm systems that people see on the evening news and weather apps every day. The data collected by these satellites is very important for issuing accurate weather forecasts.
The budget cuts are aimed at reducing the program’s lifecycle costs from $19.6 billion to $13 billion. But they pose a risk of gaps in satellite coverage between when the first of the current geostationary satellites, known as the GOES-R series, reach the end of their useful lives and when the first new satellites come into service in 2032, GAO found.
GAO has warned that any gaps in satellite coverage could last for months, depriving forecasters of important weather observations and reducing forecast accuracy.
CNN has reached out to NOAA for comment.
The new satellite program is called the Geostationary Satellite Extended Observation Program (GeoXO). Last year, the Trump administration directed NOAA and NASA, which works with NOAA to develop the spacecraft, to reduce the number of satellites in the new constellation from six to four and to eliminate three of the five instruments scheduled to be aboard those satellites.
As CNN reported last year, the equipment changes were partly aimed at narrowing the satellite’s applicability to weather forecasting, rather than conducting climate research. The decommissioned equipment included tools to monitor air quality, such as hourly monitoring of wildfire smoke. Others are aimed at studying water quality, ocean currents, and harmful algal blooms.
But so did a new version of the instrument carried by the GOES-R satellite, known as the Geostationary Lightning Mapper. The sensor, first deployed on the GOES satellite in 2017, can detect lightning anywhere on Earth and has proven useful in predicting tornadoes and monitoring rapidly intensifying tropical storms and hurricanes. Other applications include aviation weather forecasting and wildfire monitoring.
The first GeoXO satellite will not carry these instruments when it launches in 2032, according to the GAO report. In its place, it will carry tools already available on previous satellite models, such as visual and thermal imagers that track storms day and night, and an infrared sounder that is particularly useful in taking vertical snapshots of the atmosphere and inputting data into weather models. Sounder data includes conditions such as wind speed and direction, and humidity levels.
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Originally, NOAA planned to operate three geostationary satellites simultaneously. One was over the eastern United States, one over the central United States, and one over the Western United States. Additionally, NOAA requires a backup satellite that can take over for one of the operational satellites in the event of equipment failure or other mishaps.
However, given the new budget cuts and equipment changes, there will only be one GeoXO satellite in the east, one in the west, and a backup satellite.
GAO questioned whether these new satellites would be more advanced than those in orbit. “It is unclear whether GeoXO will improve or continue the capabilities available on the current generation of satellites,” the report said.
The absence of Lightning Mapper represents a loss of functionality from the current generation of GOES-R satellites.
“Our need for weather information is much higher than it was 10 years ago,” said Steve Volz, former head of NOAA’s satellite division and now CEO of HyperionEO LLC, a consulting firm specializing in Earth observation. He said other rejection documents would specifically address “expressed requirements from Congress.” He warned that the reduction in equipment on GeoXO satellites could cause the United States to fall behind Europe, Japan and China in improving forecast accuracy.
Zoe Lofgren, the top Democrat on the House Science Committee, and Democratic Rep. Gabe Amo wrote in a letter to NOAA administrators on Monday that the administration intends to put the U.S.’s weather forecasts on the back burner for years, rather than improve its ability to predict the weather.
“Thanks to the Trump administration, the next generation of U.S. weather satellites will very likely be worse than the current ones,” the letter, first shared with CNN, said.
“Two fewer satellites and three fewer scientific instruments are not budget items. They represent a concrete and tangible weakening of America’s ability to understand weather, climate, and the world around us,” the letter said.
The letter requests information from NOAA leadership regarding cost-benefit analyzes and other documentation completed regarding the loss of specific equipment from GeoXO.
