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President Donald Trump has made good on his promise to funnel more than $300 million in political funds to the 2026 midterm elections.
New campaign finance filings released Tuesday night show an influx of millions of people into House races that were largely uncontested two years ago, underscoring how widespread the Republican Party’s problems have become in the final weeks of the campaign.
MAGA Inc., President Trump’s main super political action committee, reported spending of $305 million through Oct. 14, and new Federal Election Commission filings show $75.5 million, a quarter of the election cycle total, was spent in the first two weeks of October. Still holding $164.3 million in cash, Trump said Tuesday he would spend more than $400 million on his political campaign by Election Day.
Much of the money is flowing through two new groups aligned with Trump. MAGA Inc. has transferred $200 million to No Going Back PAC and $25 million to Safety & Affordability PAC, and both companies have already reported more than $209 million in independent spending, according to FEC filings.
The spending is also likely to allay months of Republican fears that President Trump would leave his huge war chest alone rather than deploy it in the midterm elections. As of September, Republican operatives were concerned that a large portion of MAGA’s funds would remain untouched.
Safety & Affordability spent $3.76 million in Arizona’s 1st District, $1.84 million in Maine’s 2nd District, $1.6 million in Wisconsin’s 3rd District, $1.48 million in North Carolina’s 1st District, and $1.4 million in Ohio’s 10th District. The agency also poured more than $1 million into each of Pennsylvania’s 8th District, Ohio’s 9th District, and Michigan’s 7th District, according to a CNBC analysis of PAC filings.
Some are established as battlefields. Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rates Wisconsin third, North Carolina first, Pennsylvania eighth, Ohio ninth and Michigan seventh out of 21 “toss-up” races.
Elsewhere President Trump is donating, Republicans find themselves forced into less familiar territory.
In Ohio’s 10th Congressional District, the Safe and Affordable PAC spent about $1.4 million defending Republican Rep. Mike Turner, who won by 18 points in 2024. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is currently listing the seat as one of its new picks for 2026, while the National Republican Congressional Committee only started spending this month, according to AdImpact.
No Going Back also spent about $5 million each in Republican-held Michigan’s 4th District and North Carolina’s 11th District, and an additional $14.4 million in Florida’s Democratic-held 14th and 25th Districts, according to a CNBC analysis of the PAC’s FEC filings.
At the same time, other Republican groups are also beginning to triage. House Speaker Mike Johnson’s super PAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund, has stopped advertising spending in Iowa’s 1st Congressional District, New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District, Michigan’s 8th Congressional District and Ohio’s 1st Congressional District, the Associated Press reported last week. Meanwhile, pro-Trump groups spent about $1.4 million on those four campaigns, according to a CNBC analysis of FEC filings.
According to AdImpact, Republicans continue to have an advertising advantage in 25 of the 42 House districts where Republicans or Democrats were rated “high” or “lean” in the Cook Report. However, the political environment continues to trend in favor of Democrats. Of the 21 House races that Cook rates as “toss-ups,” 16 are held by Republicans and five are held by Democrats.
President Trump’s PAC is also spending big in the Senate, according to new filings. No Going Back spent about $30 million in Michigan, $27.8 million in Ohio, $11.8 million in New Hampshire and nearly $9.9 million in North Carolina, according to a CNBC analysis of new FEC filings. Those four races alone account for about $79 million.
Trump’s own position may help explain the pressure. A New York Times/Siena College poll released Wednesday gave him an approval rating of 36% and a disapproval rating of 59%.
Voters polled disapproved of his response to the cost of living, 69% to 29%, and on gas prices, 73% to 24%. When voters were presented with the actual House candidates running in the district, Democrats had a 10-point lead.
Trump’s allies are also trying to solve the turnout problem of getting voters who supported Trump in the presidential election to show up at polling places when Trump is not on the ballot.
In its latest filing, MAGA reported $16.2 million in expenditures on Oct. 8 labeled “voter education.” The New York Times reported Tuesday that the group has run more than 2,200 unique Facebook and Instagram ads in more than 20 states urging Republicans to vote early and vote.
