SAO PAULO, BRAZIL – OCTOBER 24: Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s incumbent president and Partido dos Trabaladores (PT) presidential candidate, waves the Brazilian flag during a rally ahead of the presidential run-off elections on Paulista Avenue in São Paulo, Brazil, on October 24, 2026.
Alexander Schneider | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won an unprecedented fourth term as Brazil’s president, overturning a first-round deficit and defeating Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro in a run-off election that divided the country almost evenly.
The High Electoral Court said nearly all votes were counted on Sunday, with Lula holding 51.8% of valid votes to Bolsonaro’s 48.2%.
The result is also historic, as it is the first time since Brazil returned to direct elections in 1989 that a candidate won in the final runoff after losing in the first round.
According to Reuters, President Bolsonaro will not accept defeat and has said he will seek an annulment of the results. He also said Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin’s decision to extend voting by two hours was “unacceptable,” the report said.
The electoral process was marred by allegations of voter suppression, with Lula’s campaign reporting public transport suspensions in some key areas and a court extending voting by two hours. Bolsonaro’s camp had also requested an extension, citing heavy rains that had closed polling stations in the south, a right-wing stronghold.
A victory for the 80-year-old leftist, who was outnumbered in the first round, will halt the shift to the right in Latin America supported by US President Donald Trump. Lula is due to rule from 2027 to 2030, with Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party holding the largest number of seats in decades and facing a parliament with a high public debt that must be stabilized.
Under Lula’s leadership, Brazil has grappled with deteriorating fiscal health and mounting public debt due to soaring debt service costs and strict mandatory spending. Brazil’s total debt reached 82.9% of gross domestic product (GDP) in August, the highest level since March 2021, according to Brazil’s central bank.
The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) plunged nearly 20% in overnight trading following Mr. Lula’s victory, and has since pared its losses and fallen 18%.
Analysts expect Brazilian assets to rise ahead of Sunday’s election results, which gave Bolsonaro a narrow lead earlier this month. Chris Turner, head of global markets and head of UK/Central Europe research at ING, had expected both currency and bond markets to rise due to President Bolsonaro’s austerity and deregulation.
Lula’s victory came on the same day that Serbia’s long-time powerful leader Aleksandar Vučić conceded defeat to a student-led opposition movement in parliamentary elections, ending his 14-year leadership.
