Halloween candy lined up at a Target store in Los Angeles, California on October 27, 2026.
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images
Halloween shopping has gotten more expensive this year, as prices have soared for everything from candy bowls to front porch pumpkins.
In addition to being tough on consumers, it could also hurt businesses such as: hershey.
Americans are expected to spend $13.5 billion on Halloween, up from a record $13.1 billion last year, according to the National Retail Federation.
“Consumers continue to make Halloween a spending priority, but they also approach the season with affordability in mind,” said Allison Zeller, vice president of industry and consumer insights at NRF.
Inflation has spilled over into everything from sweets to costumes. Pumpkins are also expensive. The average retail price reached $5.36 this year, an 11% increase from September 2020, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. In parts of Texas, a major pumpkin-growing state, the drought has reduced yields by about 30% to 40%.
candy and chocolate
Candy remains one of the biggest expenses this Halloween, and although the rate of price increases has slowed, price increases are still ahead of general grocery inflation.
Prices for candy and chewing gum rose 7.7% in September compared to the same month last year, according to the latest Consumer Price Index data. The sugar and confectionery category increased by 5.5% over the same period. The outlook for sugar supplies has worsened due to adverse weather conditions, including the effects of El Niño. Unusual rainfall conditions disrupted Brazil’s sugarcane harvest, and drought and other extreme weather events affected production in other major growing regions.
“As Halloween rapidly approaches, candy stands out as one of the more expensive categories in grocery stores compared to last year’s prices,” food economist Richard Volpe wrote on LinkedIn. “The last few years, this has made me swim with candy,” he added. “As I write this, Halloween is just a few days away and there are only three bags of candy sitting on my desk.”
Halloween candy sales were down 11.7% through Sept. 19, according to Nielsen IQ Early Market data. After four weeks, the decline had narrowed to 6.7%, with chocolate at -7.2% and confectionery at -5.3%, according to the report.
Chocolate has so far been most vulnerable after disruptions to cocoa supplies in West Africa, which has been hit by poor growing conditions, particularly in Ivory Coast and Ghana. Potential El Niño and harmattan dry trade winds could put pressure on West Africa’s cocoa crop in 2026-2027.
Since then, there has been some easing in commodity markets. cocoa Prices have fallen sharply from historic highs, said David Branch, sector manager at Wells Fargo Agriculture and Food Research Institute.
However, this decline has not yet translated into cheaper chocolate.
Wells Fargo Agri-Food expects chocolate prices to be about 8% higher than last Halloween, and effective transaction prices will rise about 5% to 8% after the promotion. Many of the chocolates on shelves this Halloween were made using cocoa purchased 6 to 12 months ago.
“The worst of the cocoa crisis is behind us, but the price relief has not yet reached stores,” Branch told CNBC. “For chocolate makers, the main issue in 2026 is no longer just cocoa availability; it is the timing mismatch between falling futures, high stock prices, negotiations with retailers and consumer resilience.”
According to NIQ, sales of Halloween chocolate dollars fell 7.2% year-on-year in the nine weeks ending Oct. 17, with weak milk chocolate leading the decline.
NIQ estimates that Halloween chocolate sales were $33.1 million lower than last year, with milk chocolate accounting for $34.4 million of the decline. Dark Chocolate, on the other hand, made a profit of $2.3 million. Overall sales of Halloween candy, gum and mints were down 6.7%.
To help juice sales, retailers are offering discounts – walmart and target There will be flash sales and deep discounts on everything from candy to Halloween costumes.
Meanwhile, candy shoppers appear to be moving toward smaller packages. According to NIQ, small candy packs under 9 ounces are up 24% in value and 14% in quantity, while all larger package sizes are down.
Wells Fargo expects shoppers will increasingly prefer value packs and alternatives that use less cocoa, such as gummies, sour candies, wafers and caramels.
“Consumers will continue to buy candy, but their shopping carts will contain fewer chocolates, more value packs, and a larger proportion of gummies, sour products, wafers, caramels, and other low-cocoa alternatives,” Branch said.
Hershey stock rose on Friday as consumers abandoned AI stocks and sought safer staples. But analysts see difficulties brewing for candy makers.
The company, which announced its third quarter results on Thursday, revised down its 2026 organic sales growth forecast to 3% (3% – 3.5%). That means organic growth will be “flat” in the fourth quarter, said Scott Marks, an analyst at Jefferies.
In a note, he said Hershey’s comments were “increasingly cautious” and that “consumer and cost pressures” were weighing on the near-term outlook.
“We’re looking at areas like convenience as consumers are under pressure to deliver more value and drive pricing through tailored promotions rather than across-the-board price reductions,” Hershey CEO Kirk Tanner told analysts on an earnings call.
Marks lowered his price target to $170, joined by brokerages such as DA Davidson, BNP Paribas, Bernstein and Deutsche Bank. The consensus estimate for 2027 earnings is down 3.7% to $9.49 per share, according to FactSet.
CNBC’s Alex Harring contributed reporting.
