President Donald Trump has promised voters angry about inflation that he will lower gas prices to less than $2 a gallon within his first year in office.
In September 2024, during his re-election campaign, President Trump said in a speech at the New York Economic Club, “My plan is to cut energy prices in half or more within the first 12 months of taking office.”
“Energy was the problem in the first place,” he told voters. “Energy will bring us back, which means we’ll be in decline and gas will be less than $2 a gallon.”
But energy prices will remain a sore point when voters head to the ballot box on Tuesday. Petrol and diesel prices are expected to reach record highs on election day, said Patrick de Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.
“We have never seen prices rise this much in the second half of the year,” De Haan said.
Gasoline prices averaged $4.20 a gallon nationally on Friday, nearly 40% higher than the same period last year. The price of diesel, which is essential for transportation and agriculture, has increased about 70% over the past year to $6.32 per gallon.
According to AAA data, during the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, when Russia invaded Ukraine and triggered an energy crisis, the retail price of gasoline was $3.80.
own goal
“Trump acted in his own way,” De Haan said. “Back in December, we predicted that 2026 would be the cheapest year for gas prices since 2020. It didn’t take any effort to do that. And clearly, it didn’t work out that way.”
Fuel prices have skyrocketed since President Trump decided to attack Iran in a joint attack with Israel on February 28th. In retaliation, the Iranian government has attacked tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, significantly reducing the flow of oil through the vital shipping route.
President Trump told voters at a rally in Michigan last Sunday that higher fuel prices are a “small price to pay” to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
“Once this conflict ends, gasoline prices will drop significantly and Iran’s terrorist regime will no longer have a nuclear weapon,” White House Press Secretary Taylor Rogers said in a statement.
The White House said gasoline prices, adjusted for inflation, were higher around the last election.
Exports via Hormuz have recovered since the summer as the U.S. military helped ships pass through the strait. However, the turmoil in the Middle East has been exacerbated by Houthi attacks on Saudi oil refineries and Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries. President Trump had promised to end the war in the first week of his second term, but the conflict has descended into an intractable stalemate.
“Frankly, diesel is a critical juncture here because it’s so important to economic growth,” ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods told CNBC on Friday, after the disruption caused the nation’s largest oil company to make huge profits.
Airlines are raising fares to cover the high cost of jet fuel, their biggest non-payroll expense, hurting the fight to curb inflation.
political pressure
Trump was under political pressure from Republicans to take action on fuel prices ahead of Tuesday’s election. Diesel prices are hurting large agricultural states like Iowa, which overwhelmingly supported Mr. Trump in the presidential election. The Hawkeye State Senate race is a hotly contested race.
President Trump briefly considered banning diesel exports as Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) pushed to help the state’s farmers. The president decided against it because gas prices could also go up.
Instead, President Trump issued an executive order allowing truckers to use tax-free off-road diesel on U.S. highways and announced an $8 billion relief program for farmers hurt by soaring fuel prices.
President Trump then struck a controversial deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin that would see Russia export about 6 million barrels of diesel to global markets until November.
Even Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and some Republican senators denounced the deal as rewarding Russian aggression. Energy analysts said the diesel volumes in the deal with Russia were small compared to global demand and would not have a significant impact on prices.
Recently, oil prices have increased ahead of the election. President Trump said before the midterm elections that he would not resume attacks on Iran. But markets are pricing in the risk of renewed fighting after voting closes on Tuesday. International Brent crude oil prices rose more than 13% in October, while US West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices rose 15%.
“If there is an escalation, that could clearly put upward pressure on prices ahead of Thanksgiving, which is also a time when Americans have a very strong tradition of driving to see friends and family,” De Haan said.
