There’s a saying in the world of politics that says, “Every election is fundamentally about the next election.” On November 3, the Republican Party suffered what some are calling near-extinction-level defeats in the 2026 midterm elections. This result is likely to hint at the outcome of the next presidential election, but what options does the Republican Party have heading into 2028? First, we need to understand why this “blue tsunami” occurred. The midterm elections were a rejection of Trump, not an endorsement of the Democratic Party.
Last Tuesday’s results reflected voters holding President Trump accountable for an economic disaster, a sharp rise in the cost of living, a failed war against Iran, and pandering to Israel. It’s also an indictment of how the Trump family has used the Oval Office to enrich themselves and their friends to unprecedented levels.
As the midterm elections approached, voters viewed the Trump administration as corrupt and abandoning the grassroots populism that helped get him elected in the first place. The economic downturn, failed tariffs, and unwanted wars have widened the gulf between MAGA supporters who remain loyal to Trump as a politician and the America First wing of the Republican Party, which remains true to the values Trump campaigned on but failed to live up to. It is the separation of these two groups, once seen as interchangeable, that ultimately destroyed the Trump coalition that brought Trump and the Republican Party to power in Washington.
The recent midterm elections saw many prominent voices in the conservative movement openly oppose Republican leaders. Popular conservatives such as Tucker Carlson and Marjorie Taylor Greene have publicly spoken out against several Republican candidates, including Mike Rogers in Michigan and Ken Paxton in Texas. For months, former Trump supporter Nick Fuentes urged his supporters to vote Democratic. Their argument was that President Trump had betrayed America First and could no longer be trusted. Many of Trump’s grassroots voters, who supported him because of his economic policies and his desire to stop wars, are suffering greatly from the increased cost of living and job losses. Ultimately, Trump lost support among young voters, Hispanic and Latino voters, black men, and suburban and independent voters.
These results place the Republican Party at a critical juncture, with many wondering what its vision will be in 2028. Should we leave Trump behind and focus more on the post-Trump era, or should we double down on our original policies and rebuild the Republican coalition to maintain the status quo? There are two major forces at work here. Trump himself as a powerful man, and the Republican establishment, which wants to regain control of the party and maintain its relationship with the party. Many observers confuse these two forces, but some believe Mr. Trump has reinvented the party and, in the process, become the establishment. Both are wrong. Although Mr. Trump remains the most powerful man in the Republican Party and his extensive political campaign has seen hundreds of millions of dollars spent to support his policies, he has never been an establishment figure.
The traditional Republican establishment, which includes a network of institutional investors, former party leaders, pro-Reagan think tanks, and corporate lobbying groups, accepted Trump’s rule, which delivered judge appointments and tax cuts, but never truly embraced his populist takeover. The interim results have given momentum to more traditional power structures to once again try to “take back the party.” Both are influential forces. The ruling class is especially counting on the fact that the Trump administration is significantly weakened and will be difficult to revive. They believe Mr. Trump is likely to focus his fundraising efforts on himself, in the form of building a presidential library, rather than supporting new candidates. At the grassroots level, Republican voters feel betrayed in the wake of the Epstein scandal, unprecedented political profiteering and corruption allegations, and President Trump’s poor handling of the war with Iran.
These midterm elections were a referendum on Trump’s unpopularity, leaving Republicans with two main options. It’s either rebuilding the Trump coalition or preparing for a post-Trump conservative party. The key question now is how Republican candidates can distance themselves from President Trump while rebuilding the voter base that Trump won. Walking this tightrope means finding a way to reconnect MAGA and America First. Although this may seem an impossible task in the current political climate, it is difficult to imagine any other winning scenario.
A number of names have already been floated, and more are likely to enter the field in the coming months. Before the recent midterm elections, Vice President J.D. Vance was seen as the most likely successor. Mr. Vance is powerful because of his closeness to Mr. Trump and the support he receives from wealthy MAGA and tech industry donors. He also has ties to America First advocates. Turning Point USA publicly endorsed him a year ago. Tucker Carlson, who has a large following, still supports Vance. Meanwhile, Vance will find it difficult to distance himself from the Trump administration’s failures on the economy, immigration and the war against Iran. Mr. Vance will have to walk a fine line between criticizing Mr. Trump and distancing himself from his bad policies without losing support from the hard-core MAGA crowd, but he is likely to retaliate if he feels left out. If Mr. Vance refuses to fully criticize Mr. Trump, we will see a repeat of the Kamala Harris vs. Joe Biden scenario. One of Vance’s major weaknesses in his chances of winning is that he is not an establishment figure himself. He faces a difficult race for the Ohio Senate in 2022. Trump selected him as his running mate in 2024. That’s because of his ties to tech billionaires and his challenge to the Republican establishment. These factors will complicate Vance’s path in the 2028 field if the establishment begins to regain a foothold within the Republican leadership.
Within the Trump administration, the establishment’s favorite in 2028 is Marco Rubio. It will be easy for Mr. Rubio to distance himself from Trump’s economy, but it will be difficult to distance himself from Trump’s foreign policy and wars. Mr. Rubio is popular among establishment, neoconservative, and traditional funder groups. But he is not a MAGA favorite, nor is he considered America’s first choice. The main problem with Rubio is that he is a lot of people’s second choice. Also, his relationships with controversial donors like Miriam Adelson will be a major hurdle for him, as will his views on Israeli influence in American politics.
When thinking about 2028, outgoing Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is also a likely candidate. He will lead the Republican Party after leaving office in January. Mr. DeSantis is widely seen as the Republican Party’s sole success in these brutal midterm elections. He also has close ties to pro-Israel donors in Florida and across the country. But his poor performance and the failure of the national campaign against Trump in 2024 have not been forgotten.
Beyond these names, there are likely to be many other candidates in the field, some of whom represent the establishment, and others who may challenge both factions alike. The midterm elections were both a referendum on Trump’s unpopularity and a vote against the establishment. Many Republicans and conservatives will take advantage of this momentum and try to act on it. In this camp, we could see people like Congressman Thomas Massie, who might be run by former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, but also complete outsiders that we don’t know about yet. In my opinion, the deciding factor will be the Democratic Party. The Democratic Party’s strategy for the next two years will have a major impact on whether the Republican Party wins or loses in 2028. In other words, 2028 is the year the Democratic Party loses.
Whether Democrats focus on anti-Trump retaliation or on rebuilding the economy and regaining voters’ trust will determine Republicans’ ability to fight back. Retaliation would give Trump another chance at survival, but if Democrats insist on maintaining the status quo with their current leadership without making any fundamental changes to their donor base or wealthy elites, there will be little incentive to shift focus beyond anti-Trump rhetoric.
Last Tuesday was a historic event that I haven’t seen in over 10 years on the campaign trail. This victory complicates Democrats’ path to achieving real success for the American people, especially in light of President Trump’s veto. Above all, the future of the Republican Party will depend on whether Democrats can come up with a unique strategy that doesn’t rely on anti-Trump tactics. In some ways, Democrats need Trump — and they need Trump to continue failing — to continue this winning streak. Republicans will decide for themselves whether they need him and whether the party’s future centers around one man’s personality.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial stance of Al Jazeera.
