The wheels of Israel’s political machine are turning. But that doesn’t mean they’re going anywhere anytime soon.
In recent elections, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lost the parliamentary majority he had held in power for the past four years. But his main rival, Gadi Eisenkot, still faces the difficult task of ousting Israel’s longest-serving leader after being given the task of forming the next government.
On paper, Eisenkot has won 67 of the 120 seats in Israel’s parliament, giving him a clear majority. However, these seats come from six ideologically diverse parties, ranging from right-wing to Arab parties. That is the challenge Eisenkot, an up-and-coming politician, will have to grapple with as he seeks the premiership. It’s about how these parties can work together to support Eisenkot and help him govern.
For decades, Prime Minister Netanyahu commanded the loyalty of parties within his bloc. He was adept at managing differences and holding coalitions together, even if they challenged him.
Eisenkot has no such experience, and although he has veteran politicians in his bloc, he must find a way to guide them toward the common goal of forming a government to replace Prime Minister Netanyahu.
In most elections in Israel, and in almost all parliamentary democracies, one party emerges with the clear support of a majority in parliament. In the Israeli parliament, this equates to at least 61 out of 120 seats. The leader of that party becomes the prime minister.
After the 2022 elections, Prime Minister Netanyahu won 64 seats. Additional parties subsequently joined the coalition government, gaining four more seats. This gave him an overwhelming majority of 68 seats, and his government lasted a full term for the first time since 1988.
Prime Minister Netanyahu currently has only 46 MPs supporting him, far short of the majority needed to rule. Eisenkot has 67 seats to his name, but the situation is complicated by the fact that not all these parties have agreed to work together.
The election resulted in a complicated deadlock, with neither side leaving a clear path to forming a government.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s pre-election 53 seats shrunk to 46 in the 120-member parliament after the ultra-Orthodox party, Jewish Torah Unity, long loyal to him, refused to support him. The opposition won 67 seats, 19 of which belong to two Arab parties, the United List and Ra’am. That makes them crucial to any attempt to replace Netanyahu.
But many Jewish Israelis, including some of Netanyahu’s opponents, do not see Arab parties as legitimate partners. Still, Arab parties could provide external support to so-called minority governments and provide a parliamentary safety net.
Although the minority government holds less than the 61 seats needed to support a stable coalition government, it maintains its power by securing the support of Knesset members who are not ministers. Israeli law requires only a simple majority to form a government, so a government could form even if the opposition splits and abstains from voting. Removing one person is even more difficult and requires a constructive majority of more than half of MPs supporting an alternative government.
Gadi Eisenkot’s plan is to establish what he calls a “national emergency government.” The government is made up of four Jewish opposition parties, with a combined 48 seats. Yisrael Beiteinu, led by Avigdor Liberman, and the Left Democratic Party, led by Yair Golan. Arab parties will not participate in the coalition government, but will guarantee the support of a parliamentary majority to maintain the coalition government in exchange for various concessions.
Israel has had minority governments in the past, but not immediately after elections. Yitzhak Rabin’s second government became a minority government after the ultra-Orthodox Shas party left the coalition government in 1993. The government lasted another two years with support from Arab outside parties.
Another possible variable is seeking support from the ultra-Orthodox party, the United Torah Judaism (UTJ). Despite being a traditional ally of Prime Minister Netanyahu, the party rejected his nomination in post-election presidential talks, opening the door to abstaining from the vote or even supporting a minority government led by Eisenkot, extending the party’s safety net beyond Arab parties. But it will likely require concessions from Eisenkot.
Who is blocking Eisenkot’s plans, and could an ultra-Orthodox party become kingmaker?
Eisenkot’s main obstacle right now is Avigdor Liberman. The former defense, foreign affairs and finance minister has refused to join a government that relies on Arab parties, arguing that a minority government would be short-lived and only strengthen Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Instead, he is proposing a different path: a 61-seat coalition government that includes ultra-Orthodox parties but excludes Arab parties. He believes some members of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud party could defect once it is formed.
Although Mr. Liberman overturned a long-standing veto on ultra-Orthodox parties, his plan clashes with one of the opposition’s core promises to end the blanket exemption from mandatory military service for ultra-Orthodox men. Ultra-Orthodox parties want to make that exemption permanent, while Eisenkot, Liberman and others are campaigning for universal service. Any deal would require significant ideological concessions, but that seems a long way off as Shas remains loyal to Prime Minister Netanyahu, despite UTJ’s indications of starting negotiations.
Mr. Liberman’s strategy risks undermining Mr. Eisenkot’s policy of minority government, but the two men are coordinating their next moves. Even before forming a government, the opposition plans to use its parliamentary majority to take control of parliament by replacing the speaker and other parliamentarians appointed by Prime Minister Netanyahu, and then begin pushing the bill.
Could Eisenkot and Netanyahu share power in a unity government?
Prime Minister Netanyahu has put strong pressure on political cooperation between Jews and Arabs. In recent days, he has released two videos calling for a “government of national unity.” But he just wants it on his terms. He insists on remaining prime minister and involving the entire right-wing and ultra-Orthodox bloc.
Unity governments are traditionally established by Israel’s two major political parties after a political stalemate. After the 1984 elections, Shimon Peres of the Labor Party and Yitzhak Shamir of the Likud Party famously ruled together and shared the premiership based on a rotational arrangement. After the 1988 election, they joined forces again.
Prime Minister Netanyahu recently led two similar deals. In 2020, amid the coronavirus crisis, Benny Gantz joined him to form an emergency government after three inconclusive elections. Gantz was due to take over as prime minister in 18 months. But before he resigned, Prime Minister Netanyahu sought a way out, refusing to pass a state budget and forcing new elections.
After the attack on October 7, 2023, Gantz and Eisenkot joined the war cabinet. Both men resigned eight months later, citing dissatisfaction with Netanyahu’s handling of the Gaza war and lack of strategy.
Eisenkot rejected Netanyahu’s rhetoric of national unity as “pathetic spin.” If Netanyahu really wants to cooperate, he said, he should break with his extremist partners and join Eisenkot’s government.
Prime Minister Netanyahu does not appear to be willing to leave the alliance as a whole, but some analysts believe he may ultimately be willing to break with National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, but not with Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich or the ultra-Orthodox parties. So far, he has shown no signs of making such concessions, and opposition parties largely see his appeal for unity as a tactic to undermine any government that could replace him.
For now, he will remain in office as interim prime minister until a new government is formed.
Prime Minister Eisenkot will spend 28 days starting last Sunday negotiating with his party over cabinet positions, budget and policy. He can ask for a 14-day extension. If he fails, the task will be passed to another candidate for 28 days.
If Prime Minister Netanyahu wins the mandate, it is likely that he will try to attract opposition politicians and individual members to his side. Eisenkot, Bennett, Liberman and Golan have all declared they will not join him. Netanyahu has set a high bar, requiring eight individual asylum seekers because his bloc lacks eight seats.
But time is on his side. If he fails, the task would be to return to parliament for another 14 days to propose another candidate. If that fails, the political deadlock will force Israel into another round of elections. During this period, Prime Minister Netanyahu will remain in office as interim prime minister.
