Russia’s crude oil production rose by 210,000 barrels per day to 8.73 million barrels per day in October, the International Energy Agency said on Friday, as a recovery in Gulf shipments pushed the oil market back into surplus for the first time since the Middle East conflict began.
The agency’s latest monthly oil market report showed both global supplies and inventories rose, even as turmoil in the Middle East and attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure tightened diesel supplies.
Brent crude oil.
“Relentless attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure continue to disrupt diesel supplies to the country’s international markets, further increasing losses from the Middle East,” the IEA said.
On October 9, US President Donald Trump signed an agreement with President Vladimir Putin to supply diesel to the global market. The Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control has issued a general permit allowing certain transactions involving Russian diesel until April 7, 2027.
Crude oil supplies could increase even as diesel supplies remain tight as refinery capacity and exports of refined products remain constrained.
Global oil supplies reached 105.4 million barrels per day in October, the IEA said, adding that it was an “unprecedented” 5.3 million barrel per day increase since August despite continued attacks on energy infrastructure and tankers.
Inventories also increased for the first time since June, with observed global inventories increasing by 52 million barrels in October, or 1.7 million barrels per day.
“The oil market is showing signs of tentatively regaining balance, with global oil supply exceeding demand for the first time since the outbreak of the Iran war,” IEA analysts said.
Rising exports strengthened supply expectations for the fourth quarter, with losses in the Middle East and Russia partially offset by growth in the United States, Canada, Brazil, Argentina and Guyana, with output expected to rise by a combined 1.6 million barrels per day this year.
The IEA has raised its fourth-quarter supply forecast by 3.3 million barrels per day and expects supplies to rise by 6.6 million barrels per day in 2027.
