US President Donald Trump calls himself a pacifist. In his rhetoric, he has claimed credit for efforts to end the wars in Gaza and Ukraine. But beneath the hype, at least to date, lies a lack of substance.
The problem is not a lack of effort on Trump’s part, but a lack of a proper concept. Trump is confusing “peace” with “ceasefire” and sooner or later we will return to war (usually sooner). In fact, every American president since Lyndon Johnson has been subservient to the military-industrial complex, which profits from endless wars. President Trump is simply toeing the line, avoiding real solutions to the wars in Gaza and Ukraine.
Peace is not a truce. Lasting peace is achieved by resolving the underlying political conflicts that led to war. This requires grappling with the history, international law, and political interests that fuel the conflict. Without addressing the root causes of war, ceasefires are just a break between massacres.
President Trump has proposed what he calls a “peace plan” for Gaza. But what he is outlining is nothing less than a ceasefire. His plan fails to address the core political issue of establishing a Palestinian state. A real peace plan would combine four outcomes: an end to Israeli genocide, the disarmament of Hamas, Palestinian membership in the United Nations, and normalization of relations between Israel and Palestine around the world. These basic principles are missing from President Trump’s plan, which is why no country has signed on to the plan, despite hints to the contrary from the White House. At most, some countries support the Declaration for Enduring Peace and Prosperity, but this is only temporary.
Mr. Trump’s peace plan was presented to Arab and Islamic countries in an effort to divert attention from the global momentum toward establishing a Palestinian state. The US plan is aimed at slowing that momentum and allowing Israel to continue its de facto annexation of the West Bank, ongoing bombing of Gaza, and security maneuvers that limit emergency relief. As Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made clear at the United Nations in September, Israel’s ambition is to eradicate the possibility of a Palestinian state. So far, Trump and his allies are only promoting Netanyahu’s policies.
Like the Oslo Accords, the Camp David Summit, and every other “peace process” that treated Palestinian statehood as a distant dream rather than a solution to the conflict, President Trump’s “plan” is already falling apart. If Trump really wants to end wars (a somewhat dubious proposition), he will need to break with Big Tech and the rest of the military-industrial complex (recipients of huge U.S.-funded arms contracts). Since October 2023, the US has spent $21.7 billion in military aid to Israel, much of which has returned to Silicon Valley.
Trump will also have to part ways with donor Miriam Adelson and the Zionist lobby. In doing so, he would at least represent the American people (who support a Palestinian state) and defend America’s strategic interests. The United States will join the overwhelming global consensus supporting the implementation of a two-state solution rooted in UN Security Council resolutions and ICJ opinions.
The same thing that happened with President Trump’s failed peace negotiations applies to Ukraine. During his campaign, Trump repeatedly claimed that the war could be ended in “24 hours.” But he is proposing a ceasefire, not a political solution. The war continues.
If you look beyond mainstream media coverage, the causes of the Ukraine war are not a mystery. The causes of the conflict are the US military-industrial complex’s push for NATO’s unbridled expansion, including into Ukraine and Georgia, and the US-backed coup that installed a pro-NATO government in Kiev in February 2014, which ignited the war. The key to peace in Ukraine then and now was for Ukraine to remain neutral as a bridge between Russia and NATO.
In March and April 2022, when President Turkiye brokered an Istanbul Process peace agreement based on Ukraine’s return to neutrality, the United States and Britain pressured Ukraine to withdraw from the negotiations. There can be no sustainable peace unless the United States clearly abandons NATO expansion into Ukraine. The only way forward is a negotiated solution based on Ukraine’s neutrality, in the interests of mutual security between Russia, Ukraine and NATO countries.
Military theorist Carl von Clausewitz famously characterized war as the continuation of politics by other means. He was right. However, it is more accurate to say that war is a political failure that causes conflict. Wars often occur when political issues are postponed or denied, or when governments fail to negotiate on important political issues. True peace requires the courage and ability to participate in politics and confront those who profit from war.
No president since John F. Kennedy has seriously tried to achieve peace. Many observers of Washington believe that it was Kennedy’s assassination that irrevocably thrust the military-industrial complex into power. Moreover, the arrogance of American power, already pointed out by J. William Fulbright in the 1960s (in connection with the misguided Vietnam War), is another cause. President Trump, like his predecessor, believes that U.S. bullying, misdirection, financial pressure, coercive sanctions, and propaganda will be enough to subjugate President Putin to NATO and the Muslim world to Israel’s permanent rule of Palestine.
Trump and the rest of the Washington political establishment, beholden to the military-industrial complex, will not move beyond this ongoing delusion at their own peril. Despite decades of Israeli occupation of Palestine and more than a decade of war in Ukraine (which began with a 2014 coup), the war continues despite continued attempts by the United States to assert its will. Meanwhile, funds are funneled into the war machine’s coffers.
Still, the reality is harsh, so there is still a glimmer of hope.
When President Trump arrives in Budapest soon to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a knowledgeable and pragmatic host, will be able to help him understand the fundamental truth that NATO expansion must end to bring peace to Ukraine. Similarly, President Trump’s trusted figures in the Islamic world, Turkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, and Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto, could explain to President Trump the now imperative need for Palestine to become a member of the United Nations, as the very precondition for disarmament of Hamas and peace. It is not a vague promise for the end of history.
Trump’s return to diplomacy can bring peace. Sure, he will have to confront the military-industrial complex, the Zionist lobby, and the warmongers, but he will have the world and the American people on his side.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial stance of Al Jazeera.
