Does English football have a manager sacking problem?
Vitor Pereira and Will Still became the latest victims, having been sacked by Wolves and Southampton respectively at the weekend.
Since the summer of 2024, 52 of the 94 clubs in England’s fourth tier have changed managers at least once.
Of those 52 clubs, 23 have changed managers more than once, with Wolves the latest example after Pereira was sacked after 11 months in charge. This is Southampton’s third managerial change in 18 months, following the departure of Still.
This week’s ‘Between the Lines’ digs into the numbers surrounding managerial changes in the Premier League and explains why clubs are set for record numbers this season.
4 sacks in 10 games
Wolves took just two points from their first 10 games and Pereira was sacked at the bottom of the table. His departure follows those of Nuno Espirito Santo and Ange Postecoglou from Nottingham Forest and Graham Potter from West Ham.
After just 10 games into the season, Premier League clubs have already matched the number of manager changes in two of the competition’s previous six seasons.
Based on historical data on monthly sackings, Premier League clubs are currently on track to set a new single-season record with more than 14 total for the 2022/23 season, with a further 12 changes expected between now and the end of the season at current pace.
The red section shows the expected total for this season based on the current percentage change.
November marks the beginning of layoff season.
So should other Premier League managers be worried?
History has shown that club owners tend to get nervous around this time of year.
November and December are the busiest months for management changes, suggesting that sacking season has actually only just begun, despite four bosses having been sacked already this term.
Coach changes occur much more frequently during the season than during the offseason.
Can I follow you further? The three relegation spots are still occupied by Wolves, Nottingham Forest and West Ham, but with newly promoted Burnley and Leeds in 17th and 16th place respectively, other teams could easily find themselves in trouble.
Manchester United have eased the pressure on Ruben Amorim by completing a four-game unbeaten run, but pressure is also mounting on senior head coaches such as Thomas Frank and Enzo Maresca after Spurs and Chelsea’s shaky starts.
Premier League clubs are far more likely to sack managers mid-season than during the off-season, with only four managerial changes taking place in June and July, compared to 70 changes in November and December.
Is being fired the same as surviving?
Wolves, West Ham and Nottingham Forest are hoping to improve their chances of survival by sacking managers this season, but will change pay off for clubs that typically struggle with downturn?
That’s far from a guarantee.
Since the inception of the Premier League, only 42.5% of clubs that have changed managers while in the relegation zone have survived, while the remaining 57.5% have declined.
History has shown that the longer a club waits to make changes, the less chance it has of survival. This may help explain why Wolves, West Ham and Forest have all taken action so early this season.
The later a manager changes during a season, the less likely the club will survive.
The survival rate for clubs that change managers while in the bottom three reaches 100% in August, but drops to 50% in December and 25% in January.
No manager has ever kept a club in the bottom three of the Premier League since taking over after March.
Pereira was just the latest victim.
And now that layoff season is upon us, there could be more layoffs soon.
read between the last lines
Four Premier League clubs in crisis? The final episode of Between the Lines, released two weeks ago, revealed the problems facing Liverpool, West Ham, Wolves and Nottingham Forest.
