“The main reason for optimism is the belief that the war in Ukraine will end in 2026 if the Russian government’s ‘objectives’ are achieved,” the pollster said.
Published December 25, 2025
A majority of Russians expect the war in Ukraine to end in 2026, as Russian troops advance on the battlefield and efforts to reach a ceasefire between Kiev and Moscow intensify, according to a state-run research center.
VTsIOM, Russia’s leading polling center, announced on Wednesday that its annual survey on sentiment and expectations for next year found that Russians view 2026 with “increasing optimism”.
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“Traditionally, expectations for next year appear to be much more optimistic…In other words, while negative perceptions of the current situation persist, Russians are now more likely to accept (or believe, expect?) improvements in the future this year, but remain cautious,” the group said in a review of the survey results published online.
VTsIOM deputy head Mikhail Mamonov said in a year-end presentation that 70% of the 1,600 people surveyed believe 2026 will be a more “successful” year for Russia than this year, and 55% of respondents linked their hopes for a better year to the possibility of an end to what Russia officially calls “special military operations” in Ukraine.
“The main reason for optimism is that the special military operation can be completed and the set goals achieved, in line with the national interests outlined by the president,” Mamonov said in the presentation.
Mamonov pointed to Russia’s ongoing offensive in Ukraine, Washington’s reluctance to finance the war in Ukraine, and the European Union’s inability to fully replace the US role in Ukraine economically and militarily as key factors behind the prospects for a final agreement to end the fighting.
Mamonov added that at the end of the conflict, the reintegration of Russian veterans and the reconstruction of Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine and Russian border areas will be key priorities.
The actual level of war fatigue among Russians is difficult to measure due to strict state controls on the media, public dissent, and prosecution of those who criticize Moscow’s war against its neighbors, but independent pollster Levada found that around two-thirds of Russians support peace talks, the highest number since the war began in 2022.
In comments published on Wednesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he was ready to withdraw troops from eastern Ukraine’s industrial hub as part of a plan to end the war if Russia retaliates by withdrawing troops and allowing the area to become a demilitarized zone monitored by international forces.
In comments to reporters about a comprehensive 20-point plan that Ukrainian and U.S. negotiators worked out in Florida in recent days, President Zelensky also said a similar deal could be possible for the area around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is currently under Russian control.
Russia has shown no signs of agreeing to any withdrawal from captured land in Ukraine, and has long insisted that Kiev needs to give up the remaining territory it still holds in the Donbas industrial zone before any discussion of a cessation of fighting can take place.
Russia occupied most of Luhansk and about 70 percent of Donetsk, the two regions that make up Donbass.
President Zelensky also said that the future control of Donbass as part of the plan would be the “most difficult point” and that creating a demilitarized economic zone in the region would require difficult discussions about how far the military would need to retreat and where international forces would be stationed.
He said such discussions should take place at the leadership level.
