Amid an onslaught of deadly cold, there’s growing confidence that a powerful winter storm will form off the East Coast this weekend, but it will take time to predict its path, strength and who will see snow.
As of Tuesday, forecast models agreed that the storm would form off the coast of the Carolinas early Saturday morning and then rapidly intensify enough to be classified as a bomb cyclone.
But models are predicting the storm’s exact path throughout the weekend, which will determine who will see the snow and strong winds. A change of just 100 or 200 miles in the storm’s final path could mean the difference between heavy snow in major cities on the East Coast or just a cold, breezy weekend.
Details will change, but with the storm still a long way off and confidence in its impact low, there will be more confidence later in the week.
Here we present a scenario that is well into the future.
Given recent computer model predictions, this scenario is currently the most likely.
The storm will move close enough to the coast to bring snow and other impacts to coastal areas, then move out to sea, leaving major cities on the East Coast unaffected.
As the storm develops into a bomb cyclone and moves northeast into Monday, coastal impacts such as heavy snow, high winds and coastal erosion will be limited to areas along the coast from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina to Cape Cod, Massachusetts.
Under this scenario, eastern North Carolina would be most affected by heavy snow, strong winds and coastal impacts starting Saturday morning.
The storm’s path will largely avoid the major cities along Interstate 95 in the Northeast from Washington, D.C., to Boston, but by a close margin.
However, this track could move just 100 to 200 miles westward to create another severe snowstorm.
Although most computer models do not support this scenario, there is still enough uncertainty to make it a viable option.
The storm’s path will bring heavy snow and strong winds from the eastern Carolinas to I-95.
In this scenario, the storm approaches the coast, much closer than in the first scenario, and intensifies rapidly.
Heavy snow and strong winds will compound the effects of last weekend’s storms. Many regions are still trying to extract power from ice and snow to restore power amid record cold temperatures.
Some computer model runs show that this actually plays out with about the same probability as the second scenario.
In this last scenario, the storm forms further offshore in the Carolinas and then moves straight out to sea.
This keeps all of the strongest winds and snowfall offshore, sparing even the Carolinas from significant impacts.
The next winter storm will be a very different beast than the sweeping storm that just hit most areas east of the Rocky Mountains. A classic nor’easter will have much less of an impact along the East Coast, even though it will be a more intense and windy storm.
Given the storm’s path and the presence of cold air already in front of it, there is little chance of a wintry mix of cold rain and sleet in this event. Good news for those who damaged the ice in the last event.
However, combined with strong winds and blizzard conditions, much of the eastern coastline has been affected by waves and waves.
Bottom line: If you live from the Carolinas to the Northeast, keep an eye on the latest forecasts as this event approaches, as the chances of significant storms are increasing.
