Arsenal vs. Chelsea is the most played match in WSL history. It’s always exciting when these two giants of the women’s game collide. Often it concerns the top end, usually a first vs. second issue. But not this time.
The Gunners found themselves ahead of Saturday’s match, which was broadcast live on Sky Sports, and although they are two points better than at the same stage last season, they are still off the pace and have dropped significantly to fifth place.
Even if the five-goal deficit is indeed recoverable, the chance to address that deficit against the league leaders will provide the basis for a future title challenge.
So, who will win or lose in Saturday’s game?
Saturday, November 8th 11:30am
Kickoff at 12pm
stay true to style
Arsenal are the most possession-based team in the league. Manchester City have been stripped of this title since Gareth Taylor brought his pass-based style to Liverpool in the summer.
Rene Sleggers’ side are the only team to have an average possession rate of over 60% this season. Under manager Sonia Bompastor, Chelsea have also shifted to a system that prioritizes possession and control, but so far the transition has been gradual. Arsenal have always played this way, only now the possession phase has become a little more elevated due to manager Slegger’s orders.
Arsenal are top of all passing metrics. They maintain the highest accuracy, complete the most passes and have the highest number of successful balls into the final third. Once the Gunners get into a rhythm with central technicians Kim Little and Mariona Caldenti, it will be very difficult to stop them. No other team passes and moves like this. Staying true to type gives you the best chance of success here.
Chelsea tend to attack through the channels. This is a more direct approach, but just as effective. They average 24 crosses per 90, more than any other team, and are able to move play from left to right and back with great accuracy. Arsenal’s attack-minded full-back will need to balance risk and reward, taking into account Chelsea’s functionality out wide, particularly on the right.
Track the midfield ace
Given how much time Arsenal spend on the ball, it may come as a surprise to some that Little has racked up more possession wins (52) than any other player this term. Erin Cuthbert ranks second with 48. As has often been the case in recent years, the effectiveness of both teams’ midfield controllers has the power to swing this match in either direction.
Chelsea’s Erin Cuthbert has redefined his midfield role this season
Cuthbert has had a great season in a higher role. It was a deliberate move by Bompastre to place the Scotland international in a position to influence the attacking line, with Keira Walsh trusted to play as a single axis. In Chelsea’s recent 2-0 win over London City Lionesses, it took Cuthbert 86 seconds to pick up a loose pass and aim for goal, only to be thwarted by a goal-line clearance. She should have scored.
The Chelsea midfielder has a bigger say in the opposition half and the final third than before.
However, the shift is working. Cuthbert has created 13 chances this season, only Arsenal’s Caldenti and London City’s Kosovare Aslani (21 each) have created more chances. She has been on target 20 times, only Man City striker Khadijah Shaw has more goals. Her creative production surpasses most forwards in the league right now. Arsenal need an active plan to limit space.
give freedom to full-backs
This is a game where the flying full-backs should dominate. Both teams boast outstanding talent in the division and each has the potential to win the match.
In fact, it almost feels reductive to use the term full-back, given the profile of the player in question. Arsenal’s most used pair, Katie McCabe and Emily Fox, are among the most progressive players, consistently reaching the final third with overlapping and underlapping runs. They often set the tone for Arsenal’s pressing. Ellie Carpenter plays in much the same way at Chelsea.
However, these aggressive strategies tend to leave gaps. Arsenal will play with a flat-back four, while Chelsea will move to a full-back system, giving them more flexibility if their wide players are caught on the field. The Blues have conceded fewer goals than in the past and are adding more depth to their attack. Neither development is good news for Arsenal.
Carpenter scored his first goal since arriving at Stamford Bridge last weekend, but there is no doubt that the deft positioning of Lucy Bronze, playing as part of a structured back three for the first time, gave Carpenter the reassurance he needed going forward. The assist came from opposite wingback Sandy Baltimore. These are luxury players in their own right, but they can’t be in two places at the same time.
The key is to sniff out available space and use it at the right time.
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Both wing-backs gave Chelsea the lead against London City Lionesses
Avoid getting caught up in fast starts
Arsenal and Chelsea can jointly boast eight first-half goals, but the latter found the net six times in the first 15 minutes of the match, twice as many as any other team. Chelsea attack the blocks and rarely concede the lead once they get ahead.
The Gunners can’t afford to let that happen at home. They must look to use the Emirates crowd as a weapon and prevent the visitors from gaining early momentum. Next, it’s important to maintain tension long enough to pull Chelsea away.
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Alessia Russo and Stina Blackstenius were both on the scoresheet as Arsenal defeated Leicester 4-1 last weekend.
That’s possible with the combination of Alessia Russo and Stina Blackstenius. Arsenal are unbeaten in all eight league games in which the pair have started together, with the team averaging 2.8 goals per game. Trust that they will stretch Chelsea and fill in the gaps that have arisen. By doing so, Caldenti’s creativity is put to use. Olivia Smith is also handy on the pocket.
If that doesn’t work out, Sleggers has depth to fall back on. Arsenal’s record for goals scored by substitutes (4) and goals scored over 75 points (6) is the best in the division. Top-end performance remains a huge asset.
defend wisely
Of course, all well-thought-out plans also depend on proper in-game management. Sleggers has proven herself to be a shrewd operator in a short period of time, but her team have conceded too many goals at the moment to be considered genuine title contenders. Recovering points from lost positions (six games this season) can be both fun and frustrating.
Defense wins the league. Chelsea have conceded 3 goals this season and have an xGa performance of +4.5. Arsenal, on the other hand, shipped seven with an xGa performance of -0.8. This pattern must be broken if Chelsea are to stop their unbeaten run.
Bompastor will not be easily defeated. Slegels needs an airtight tactical plan that focuses on everything Arsenal do well and, perhaps just as importantly, some of the things Arsenal don’t do well.
Watch Arsenal vs Chelsea live on Sky Sports Main Event from 11.30am on Saturday. Kickoff at 12pm.
