As the joint U.S. offensive against Iran continues, Israel sees its mission as the culmination of a long-standing policy of ushering in regime change from within.
Taking to the airwaves on Saturday in the wake of the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu directly addressed the Iranian people, calling on them in Farsi to “come to the streets, come out in your millions, finish the job and overthrow the reign of terror that has made your lives difficult.”
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“Your suffering and sacrifices will not be in vain. The help you were hoping for, that help has now arrived,” he said of the US and Israeli airstrikes that have already killed more than 555 people inside Iran, including 180 at a girls’ school in southern Iran.
“Israeli authorities are not giving details, but it’s clear that what they want to see is regime change in Iran,” said Aaron Bregman, a senior professor at King’s College London’s School of War Studies. He had returned to Israel to research a book before the latest attack.
“I’m stuck in Tel Aviv, spending hours with Israelis in local shelters. I’m amazed at the strong support of Israelis during the war, mainly from liberals,” he said. “They, like their leaders, believe that just by overthrowing the Iranian regime the Middle East will change completely for the better, which of course is nonsense.”
However, there are questions about how committed Prime Minister Netanyahu and his allies are to facilitating a smooth regime change in Iran.
Israeli officials are aware that Iran has a diverse range of views and backgrounds, including rebel groups.
Many Iranians who have taken to the streets, including during large-scale protests in January, are united only in their hostility to the government, with various factions calling for everything from the restoration of the monarchy to full democracy. However, some people have rallied to the government’s side in response to the attack on their country and the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei.
doubts remain
“I think there is public opacity about Israel’s war objectives,” former Israeli government adviser Daniel Levy told Al Jazeera. “My sense is that Israel has no real interest in a smooth transition of power. I think most (Israeli leaders) see that as some kind of fairy tale, but Prime Minister Netanyahu and his allies may not be willing to admit that publicly.”
“Israel is more concerned with the collapse of the regime and the state,” Levy pointed out. “They want Iran to collapse, and if the ramifications involve Iraq, the Gulf, and much of the region, all the better.”
“They will remove an important regional countermeasure to freedom of action, leaving Israel and its allies free to reshape the region and, importantly, continue to kill Palestinians, and perhaps even take action against Turkiye, which is the next logical step,” he said, reflecting a recent upsurge in anti-Turkiye rhetoric within Israel, with politicians even characterizing the country as the “new Iran.”
However, there is an understanding that while public interest in the war may be high, the duration of the war may not be something Israel can choose.
Most of Israel’s military spending is undertaken by the United States, where attacking Iran has proven less popular. Similarly, in a world where many countries have belatedly stepped up their criticism of Israel’s genocide against Palestinians, particularly in the Gaza Strip, U.S. diplomatic influence has become essential to protect allies from criticism and broader sanctions.
It is far from clear how prepared America’s allies in the Gulf are to withstand Iran’s attacks on their country, a war they have repeatedly warned of. Similarly, Levy cautioned that it is difficult to predict how long it will take for regional diplomatic pressure on US President Donald Trump to start having an impact.
“It’s fitting that this is Purim, a holiday that commemorates the Jewish people’s survival from the Persian threat 2,500 years ago, and we still celebrate it today. People understand that,” Barak said.
“It is unprecedented for Israel to join forces with our greatest ally and the world’s greatest power in a war,” Barak continued. “It’s hard to predict, but Trump has his own priorities and end goals, which may not be the same as ours. Maybe Trump will back down and leave Israel in charge. I don’t know what will happen then.”
public support
Iranian missiles may be attacking Israel, but local analysts say general public sentiment favors active hostilities against Iran with support from the United States.
It stems from years, if not decades, of sending a message that Iran and its allies are a major threat to Israel.
From Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s repeated warnings that Iran is on the brink of acquiring nuclear weapons to predictions by politicians from all walks of life that Israel’s destruction at the hands of Iran is imminent, the outbreak of a conflict that many Israelis see as a final showdown with their enemy has been largely welcomed.
Politicians from the right to the center left support the US and Israeli decision to attack Iran.
Yair Golan, the leader of the centre-left Democratic Party, infuriated many Israelis in May last year when he said the endless killings of Palestinians risked reducing Israel to a “pariah state”, but welcomed the war, saying the Israeli military had “full support” in “removing the Iranian threat”.
Other opposition politicians, including centrist Yair Lapid and right-wing Naftali Bennett, have also backed Netanyahu on the showdown with Iran.
“People here know that Iran is a threat because Iran keeps telling us that. They know it,” said Mitchell Barak, a political pollster who was a close ally of Prime Minister Netanyahu in the early 1990s. “We know that they (Iran) have the weapons and the will and are ready to attack. Everyone is happy that the war is going on and that this time it will end.
“The fact that this is a fully joint operation with the United States gives Israelis great pride,” Barak said, speaking from a shelter in West Jerusalem. “The objective is regime change and the protection of the Israeli people. They understand that. The Israeli people are determined to hunker down and get this done.”
