Lyubomir Vorona | iStock | Getty Images
According to several recent studies, the prospect of being replaced by artificial intelligence is scaring high-income workers, leading them to stay on the job longer.
One of the most-watched indicators, the University of Michigan Consumer Survey, shows confidence in the labor market among high-income earners near historic lows dating back to the late 1970s. Similarly, the New York Fed’s monthly consumer survey shows unemployment fears near record highs.
Finally, payroll firm ADP notes that turnover rates in traditionally white-collar jobs are near record lows.
What is the reason for the trend? “White-collar jobs may be at greater risk, and while some speculate that this is partly due to ‘fear of AI,’ other explanations are also acceptable,” UBS chief economist Erlend Kaptein said in a note.
The rise of AI is causing both excitement and fear among investors, employers, and workers alike. Policymakers are also trying to assess the impact of new technology and how it fits into the economy.
“I’ve never seen a technological revolution like this in my lifetime. I’ve seen the birth of space exploration, the rise of personal computers, the Internet, and the explosion of smartphones,” Fed Director Christopher Waller said Tuesday. “Businesses, households, and all kinds of government (agencies) are all trying to incorporate it into the way they function and operate.”
At the moment, AI appears to be contributing to anxiety and alarm.
A University of Michigan survey found that sentiment about the labor market has generally declined over the past year. But the trend is most pronounced among the top third of earners, whose labor market sentiment scores, in this case expectations of rising unemployment, are at their lowest levels since the end of the 2009 financial crisis. Sentiment among lower-income workers has also declined, although it is actually higher than sentiment among higher-income workers.
Similarly, the New York Fed’s monthly consumer expectations survey shows that expectations that if you lose your job today, you will find one within three months are near the lowest in data dating back to mid-2013.
Additionally, ADP’s extensive data on the civilian employment situation shows that turnover rates are declining in professions such as finance, information, and business services. Professional and business services sales in January were the lowest the company has ever recorded.
“The usual push and pull in quantity and price – job growth and wage growth that once kept the labor market vibrant – has weakened, giving way to a market defined more by inactivity than dynamism,” said Nella Richardson, chief economist at ADP.
Indeed, the employment situation remains very strong for high-income groups.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics does not break down unemployment rates by income, but by occupation. For example, the unemployment rate in the financial industry was just 2.1% in January, close to the same level last year. Professional and business services rose slightly by 4.5%, but decreased by 0.4 points from January 2025.
“I’m quick to jump to the idea that AI is going to displace a lot of people,” Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said at an event Wednesday. “We also have to remember that people are enabled.”
Similarly, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmidt said that in the long run, AI will benefit the labor market and the economy.
“Personally, I think AI is going to be needed to compensate for the fact that we don’t have new entrants to the labor market like we did, say, 30 or 40 years ago,” Schmidt said at a separate event on Wednesday. “So AI will need to be an enhancement to get the job done.”
