Protests have been scattered across Iran over the past week, increasing pressure on a dysfunctional government struggling to cope with a spiraling economic crisis.
But a dramatic U.S. military operation more than 11,000 miles away looms even larger over the Islamic Republic. Iran woke up over the weekend to dramatic scenes as US troops landed in the Venezuelan capital of Caracas and the president and his wife were dragged from their bedrooms in a daring nighttime operation to capture Tehran’s ally President Nicolas Maduro and transfer him to the United States.
On Monday, President Trump issued his second threat to Iran in less than a week, warning again that the United States would retaliate if authorities killed protesters.
Iran’s leadership, already facing domestic unrest and multiple crises, now faces the possibility of new U.S. military action after the country’s nuclear facilities were targeted last summer. This escalation of military action is prompted by a courageous US president who also threatened other adversaries following the attack on Venezuela.
“If they start killing people like they’ve been killing people, we’re going to get a very hard blow from the United States,” President Trump said Monday on Air Force One.
Protests erupted in Iran last week as disgruntled shopkeepers took to the streets to protest the country’s plunging currency. U.S.-based activist group Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) said the demonstrations were initially largely peaceful and localized, but quickly spread across the country as other demographic groups joined in, with riots breaking out in 88 cities in 27 of Iran’s 31 provinces. The regime eventually sent in Basij militia forces to quell hundreds of protesters.
After nine days of protests, at least 29 protesters have been killed and nearly 1,200 arrested, HRANA said. Iranian security forces have cracked down on demonstrations, raiding a hospital in Iram on Sunday and arresting injured protesters. This is a common practice of security agencies.
President Trump’s blunt warning infuriated the country’s leaders, who have since done everything in their power to quell the protests.
The Islamic Republic’s leadership has long warned of US-instigated regime change, telling supporters and rebels alike that regime change is the ultimate goal of the West.
In addition to American pressure, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has expressed support for Iranian protesters, potentially adding to Tehran’s paranoia. Iranian authorities have since labeled some of the protesters as “rioters,” “mercenaries” and “foreign-linked agitators.”
“Protests are legal, but protests are different from riots. We will talk to the protesters. The authorities have to talk to the protesters. But there is no point in talking to the rioters,” Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said on the X program this week. “The mob has to be in its place.”
Last summer, when Israel launched a surprise war against Iran, the depth of its infiltration became clear when it was revealed that Israeli agents were smuggling weapons and using them to attack high-value targets from inside Iranian territory.
Iranian authorities arrested dozens of people and executed at least 10 after the war. Iranian state media reported on Monday that a man was arrested in Tehran on suspicion of cooperating with the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad.
Vali Nasr, a professor at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, said Iran now sees U.S. intentions as “maximalist.”
“For Iran, the current U.S. intentions are clearly extremist and hostile,” he told CNN. “It is too early to say whether Venezuela will truly be the starting point for a pro-Iran victory. The Venezuela story is just beginning.”
Sanam Vakil, head of the Middle East and North Africa program at London think tank Chatham House, told CNN that Iran faces a “triple crisis,” adding that Iran previously faced an economic and political crisis, but now faces a looming threat of new military conflict and external pressure from the United States and Israel.
Under the leadership of late President Hugo Chávez and then President Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela became Iran’s closest ally in the Western Hemisphere. Deep economic ties and extensive military cooperation have united America’s adversaries, both of which are subject to harsh sanctions.
As Venezuela crumbled under the weight of sanctions, Iran, much more experienced in dealing with American “maximum pressure,” surrendered an Iranian-flagged tanker to help transport Venezuelan oil. The two countries signed dozens of bilateral agreements, including a 20-year cooperation agreement aimed at rehabilitating and overhauling Venezuela’s oil refineries and strengthening military ties.
Most recently, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) was planning to build a subway line in Caracas before its withdrawal.
The striking similarities between the two regimes have led many observers to focus on Iran and wonder whether the ailing Ayatollah Khamenei could face a similar fate.
Both countries boast vast oil reserves and rich mineral resources and have long positioned themselves as anti-imperialist enemies of the United States. Both countries have endured crippling US sanctions that caused economic collapse. President Trump has issued direct threats to each administration and has similarly increased pressure on Tehran and Caracas.
The two countries are very different. Iran is a theocratic state ideologically rooted in Shiite Islam, while Venezuela is a socialist, secular regime.
Iran may be better prepared than Venezuela for attempted regime change from abroad. The Islamic Republic, which has long anticipated a U.S. plot to overthrow it, has built a network of armed proxies to strengthen itself in the Middle East and has built military capabilities such as sophisticated drones and ballistic missiles as powerful weapons on the battlefield.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned that “all American centers and forces throughout the region will be our legitimate targets in response to any potential action.”
Supporters and rebels alike in Iran strongly dislike foreign interference. Last summer, despite Israel’s 12-day war against Iran, people from across the political spectrum showed unusual solidarity in condemning Israel for attacking their country.
Even if regime change is attempted, there is no guarantee that it will yield the results desired by Iran’s adversaries.
“The case of Venezuela will be a very important reminder for the Islamic Republic and the world that the removal of a top leader does not necessarily significantly change the course of policy within the system,” Baqir said.
For Iranian leaders, the summer war was further evidence of what they have been saying for decades: talks with the United States are a ruse to ultimately topple the Islamic Republic. Khamenei has suggested that conflict is inevitable.
“Those who claim that the solution to this country’s problems lies in negotiations with the US have seen what happened. While Iran was negotiating with the US, the US government was busy preparing war plans behind the scenes,” he wrote in X on Saturday. “We will not yield to the enemy.”
