Onasan Ra | Null Photo | Getty Images
ASML The Dutch semiconductor giant’s sales outlook for 2026 also exceeded expectations, as demand for AI continues to support its business, while it reported higher orders than previously expected.
Bookings, one of the most closely watched metrics by investors, rose to 13.2 billion euros ($15.8 billion) in the fourth quarter of 2025, beating analysts’ expectations of 6.32 billion euros, according to Visible Alpha cited by Reuters. Roger Dussen, ASML’s finance director, said the company’s order intake for the quarter was a record.
ASML also announced a €12 billion share buyback plan to be executed by December 31, 2028.
The company said it expects net sales for the current quarter to be between 8.2 billion euros and 8.9 billion euros, and total sales in 2026 between 34 billion euros and 39 billion euros. The midpoint is above analysts’ expectations of $35.1 billion.
ASML previously said it expects total net sales in 2026 to be no lower than 2025. ASML’s forecast shows growth and appears to be an improvement on previous comments regarding 2026.
Here’s a comparison of ASML and LSEG consensus forecasts for Q4.
Net sales: 9.7 billion euros ($11.6 billion) compared to the expected 9.6 billion euros Net income: 2.84 billion euros compared to the expected 3.01 billion euros
AI tailwind
ASML, which makes the tools needed to make some of the world’s most advanced chips, has received some tailwinds from the AI infrastructure boom, with its stock up nearly 30% this year alone.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. TSMC (TSMC) this month posted another record profit increase in the fourth quarter, reinforcing expectations that demand for AI chips and infrastructure will continue. ASML’s customer TSMC is the world’s largest chip manufacturer, producing semiconductors for the following companies: Nvidia to AMD.
Meanwhile, a shortage of memory semiconductors is causing an unprecedented spike in the price of the component, with some in the electronics industry predicting the crisis will last until 2027. Analysts predict that the world’s largest memory makers, including Samsung and SK Hynix, will increase their chip manufacturing capacity in the next one to two years, meaning those companies will buy more ASML machines.
For example, Barclays said in a note this month that it expects SK Hynix to take over 12 of ASML’s extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment in 2026.
ASML’s chief financial officer said its customers “have a more positive assessment of the medium-term market outlook.”
“I think it’s mainly based on the more solid view they have about the demand for AI, which seems more sustainable from their perspective,” Dassen said in a recorded video interview. “That realization has led some customers to actually invest in capacity and prepare plans for medium-term capacity expansion.”
China in the spotlight
Investors will be watching for comments on the Chinese market, where ASML is not allowed to ship state-of-the-art machinery due to export restrictions. The Dutch semiconductor giant said last year that it expects sales in China to be significantly lower in 2026 than in 2024 and 2025.
ASML said it expects sales in China to account for 20% of its total sales in 2026. Last year, China accounted for 33% of ASML’s system net sales.
