Welcome to The Debrief. In his Sky Sports column, Adam Bate combines data and opinion to examine the key stories from the latest Premier League matches. this week:
Watkins’ numbers are a concern Pope’s shot-stopping numbers are attracting attention Why has Garner become Everton’s key man?
What happened to Watkins at Villa?
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Premier League Wolves vs Aston Villa highlights
Given that Aston Villa were in the Premier League title race just a month ago, it is perhaps surprising that manager Unai Emery has admitted that centre-forward Ollie Watkins has had his most difficult season since joining the club almost six years ago.
Watkins had a good chance to give Villa the lead in the first half against Wolves, but was unable to get his shot on quickly enough after being put through on goal. Emery’s team lost 2-0 to the bottom club and have now fallen to fourth place.
There are growing calls for Tammy Abraham to start. Watkins has scored just once in his past 11 games. He may point to Youri Tielemans’ lack of passing, but his problems are twofold. His finishing level has declined and so has his dynamic movement.
Over the past five seasons at Villa, Watkins has consistently posted expected goals. He has scored 75 goals in the Premier League with an expected goals average of 75.11. He averaged 0.44 goals per 90 minutes in both metrics during this period.
His goals per 90 minutes this season are 0.34, the lowest since Dean Smith replaced Steven Gerrard and were at the same level as the season Villa finished 14th. Interestingly, his expected goals total is also the lowest since that campaign.
Why isn’t Watkins getting the same amount of chances? Emery needs to work on that with his team, but one concern may be that Watkins, now 30, is losing a bit of the spark that makes him stand out. The intensity of work at the top is essential to his game.
This season’s maximum speed was 33.12 km/h, lower than last season and the season before that, and lower than the 2021/22 season’s maximum speed of 36.10 km/h. A steady decline in speed, which appears to be a trend.
It doesn’t have to be catastrophic if you move smarter and your services improve. Watkins can find a way. But his struggles to find space and lack of confidence in front of goal have put him in the spotlight. Emery still supports his players.
Asked in his press conference after the Wolves defeat how Watkins could turn things around, Emery said: “Hard work and looking forward. He’s working. He’s preparing for the next game. And of course he’s going to score again.” Villa needs to do that sooner rather than later.
Pope’s form is a problem for Newcastle
Manager Eddie Howe said Newcastle’s 3-2 home defeat to Everton was due to “inevitable mistakes” and described the one goal conceded as a pivotal moment in the game. “The second one particularly hurt us emotionally,” Howe claimed when speaking to reporters afterwards.
There is no denying who is to blame. It was Nick Pope who tipped Dwight McNeil’s shot into Beto’s path. According to Opta, this was his third mistake in the Premier League. No player has made more mistakes that led to goals this season.
Shots faced by Nick Pope on Newcastle’s target map this season
What frustrates the Newcastle goalkeeper is that he has never made so many mistakes in a season since making his Premier League debut with Burnley in 2017. What’s surprising, given his hard-earned reputation, is the manner in which he made the mistake.
Pope’s kicking has long been considered a weakness, but shot-stopping and ball handling have always been his strengths. This latest mistake also had nothing to do with uncertainty about the ball at his feet. That is becoming a problem.
Howe would have realized there was always a trade-off with Pope. While other players controlled the ball more reliably, Newcastle’s goalkeeper consistently prevented more goals than expected, topping the expected goals metric year after year.
This season, he is below that and has spent more goals than the average goalkeeper. Aaron Ramsdale is already on the bench and fans are encouraging the club to bring in a new goalkeeper in the summer, making it a difficult time for the player who turns 34 next month.
Asked for specific details about Pope, Howe added over the weekend: “I think it’s difficult to comment on specific players or positions. But overall, we’ve got to defend our goals better.” But Pope is certainly under pressure to raise the bar again.
Why Garner is a key player for Everton
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Premier League highlights of Newcastle vs Everton
It was a brilliant save from Jordan Pickford that saw Everton leave St James’ Park with three points on Saturday. However, it was James Garner’s performance that was overwhelming in midfield. He is Everton’s best player this season.
Especially in the second half, Garner screened the defense and threw an interception. A total of 6 people participated in the game. No other player had scored as many goals in a Premier League weekend. No one else had more than one creation in the game.
What stands out is the intensity with which he works in the defensive area. Garner ranks as the league’s standout player when it comes to intense pressure in his own central zone, ahead of the similarly hard-working Dominik Szoboszlai and Joao Gomez.
He is 4th in total distance traveled in the Premier League. But Garner is more than just a runner, he has shown a high quality of possession for Everton this season and is not only a decent worker, but also a midfielder who is often responsible for making sharp passes.
James Garner’s minutes played by position for Everton in the Premier League this season
Manager David Moyes certainly has faith in him. Garner told the Everton manager after scoring a stunning goal from left-back in the club’s first Premier League game at the club’s new stadium in August. “He is a true midfield player. His versatility is very important for us.”
Thankfully for Garner, he has since moved on to a role of his choice and is thriving. With Everton moving up to eighth place, there is a possibility that they will be recognized even more widely in the future. Timing is everything, as he turns 25 at the end of this month and does not have a place in the England squad. Don’t rule out a World Cup appearance just yet.
