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The average tax refund so far this season is up 10.2% compared to about the same time in 2025, according to the latest IRS filing data. The year-over-year change was down from the 14.2% increase reported last week.
The average refund for individual filers as of Feb. 20 was $3,804, up from $3,453 about a year ago, the IRS said Friday.
According to an IRS release, total refunds totaled approximately $109 billion, an increase of 6.9% from 2025. However, total returns processed decreased by 2.4%.
As consumers worry about affordability, the Trump administration highlighted how President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” could affect tax refunds this season.
In a late January announcement, the White House cited multiple media reports citing an early October study by investment bank Piper Sandler that said the average tax refund could increase by “more than $1,000.”
A Feb. 26 report from Oxford Economics estimates that tax refunds will jump nearly 20% this year, with more benefits flowing to middle- and upper-income households than in previous years under changes enacted by President Trump’s 2025 tax cuts.
However, experts say individual refund amounts could vary depending on the amount of payroll deductions in 2025 and which provisions of Trump’s plan affect a family’s situation.
Average tax refunds typically increase by late February
By law, the IRS cannot send you a refund until February 15th claiming the earned income tax credit or the refundable portion of the child tax credit, known as the additional child tax credit (ACTC).
This means that the agency’s first two filing season statistical releases, which reflected data through February 6 and February 13, respectively, did not include millions of refunds from these credits.
“As we head into late February, the average tax refund jumps and gets even larger,” said Andrew Lautz, director of tax policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center, a nonprofit think tank.
From Feb. 13 to Feb. 20, the average tax refund jumped from $2,476 to $3,804. But experts say it’s too early to draw conclusions about this season’s average tax refund due to limited tax filing data.
For 2025 returns, the maximum EITC is worth up to $8,046 for filers with three or more qualifying children. For 2024 returns, the average EITC payment was $2,916, according to the IRS. President Trump’s tax cuts did not change the 2025 EITC.
President Trump’s bill would make the child tax credit increase permanent and raise the cap on the tax cut to $2,200. The ACTC portion of the refund will continue to be adjusted for inflation, but President Trump’s cuts will leave the amount unchanged starting in 2024. ACTC will be worth up to $1,700 in 2025.
