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The average tax refund so far this season is up 10.6% compared to about the same time in 2025, according to the latest IRS filing data.
As of March 6, the average refund for individual filers was $3,676, up from $3,324 about a year ago, the IRS reported Friday. The average is down from $3,742 reported last week.
The latest filing data reflects that approximately 60.7 million individual tax returns have been received, out of approximately 164 million expected by the April 15 deadline.
Average refunds typically peak around mid-February, when the data begins to include payments claiming the Earned Income Tax Credit and the refundable portion of the child tax credit, known as the Supplemental Child Tax Credit (ACTC), according to an analysis by the Bipartisan Policy Center. After a spike in February, the average typically declines gradually until tax day.
As the midterm elections approach, Republicans are emphasizing the size of tax refunds, with both parties marketing affordability to potential voters.
In a late January announcement, the White House cited multiple media reports citing an early October study by investment bank Piper Sandler that said the average tax refund could jump by “more than $1,000.”
Why your tax refund will be higher this season
Many filers are receiving larger tax refunds this season under changes enacted in President Donald Trump’s “Big and Beautiful Bill.”
The IRS did not adjust payroll withholding after the July 2025 changes, meaning many workers ended up paying too much in taxes throughout the year.
However, Garrett Watson, director of policy analysis at the Tax Foundation, previously told CNBC that there could be “significant variation among taxpayers” depending on how much they withhold in 2025 and what new tax cuts apply to their circumstances.
As of March 8, more than 27.5 million returns, nearly 45% of all returns, had claimed at least one of President Trump’s new tax cuts under Schedule 1-A, the U.S. Treasury announced in a news release this week.
Schedule 1-A, which will be reflected on tax returns, is a new format that includes President Trump’s deductions for overtime pay, tip income, senior citizens, and auto loan interest.
The state and local tax deduction (SALT) cap, on the other hand, is available only to filers who itemize their tax deductions without claiming the standard deduction.
Based on the latest IRS data, nearly 90% of returns used the standard deduction during the 2022 tax year. In the same year, approximately 15 million returns claimed the SALT deduction, less than 10% of returns.
Experts say these percentages are expected to rise in 2025, potentially resulting in significantly higher refunds for eligible individuals.
