Europe’s best-performing blue-chip stocks are widely expected to be acquired by larger peers in 2025, with analysts predicting the deal could be worth up to $23 billion.
Avivax, a French clinical-stage biotechnology company developing treatments for ulcerative colitis and Crohn’s disease, saw its stock price soar 1,681% last year, far outpacing global stocks. Stoxx 600 index Second Best Performing Stock, Mining Company Fresnilloan increase of 453%.
Now, the big question for analysts appears to be not if Avivax will announce an acquisition, but when.
The stock, which went public in 2015, was mainly priced between 10 and 20 euros, but it didn’t really start to rise until 10 years later. After Avivax announced results from a late-stage trial of its ulcerative colitis drug in July, its stock price soared 510% in one day, outpacing even the most optimistic expectations. These results could make this a strategic acquisition for a large pharmaceutical company with franchises in immunology and inflammation.
Avivax’s main and sole asset, obefazimod, was initially developed as a treatment for HIV, but researchers discovered that its anti-inflammatory effects could also impact other diseases, such as inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), and began clinical trials.
The stock price rose further in December as rumors surfaced that it was the world’s most valuable drug company. Eli Lilly, It was eyeing the acquisition of Avivax. Both companies have repeatedly declined to comment on their business development activities.
An impending deal?
Analysts say a deal could be reached at any time now.
Sebastian van der Schoot, an analyst at Van Ranschott Kempen, told CNBC that biotech companies often have “relatively small numbers of employees and no experience selling drugs,” making development a “completely different ballgame” than developing a biotech company.
“That’s why pharmaceutical companies take them out to really utilize their infrastructure,” he says.
The analyst added that he expects Avivax to hover between where it is now and where it was when the acquisition rumors first surfaced, until Monday’s annual JPMorgan Healthcare Conference, when companies often announce big deals.
Avivax’s stock price soared in 2025, significantly outperforming its European peers.
The sector comes as big drug companies have stepped up deals in recent months as some of the world’s best-selling drugs face an impending patent cliff that could see them lose exclusivity in the coming years.
Another factor that makes a deal more likely is that Avivax CEO Marc de Garidel has a reputation as a leader who can make deals happen. He has previously led multi-billion dollar acquisitions of biotech companies including: AstraZeneca and Novo Nordisk.
Asked about a potential acquisition, de Garridel told CNBC’s “European Early Edition” in December that the company is always “in discussions with big pharma” but that its role is to develop the best medicines possible.
Avivax plans to apply for regulatory approval in the U.S. by the end of 2026 and aims to launch by the third quarter of 2027, de Garidel said.
Stifel analyst Damian Choplein said the company is well-positioned to negotiate favorable deals with its big drug partners.
“Given the strength of the Phase III results and the scarcity of comparable assets, we believe the transaction could occur ahead of expected maintenance data readouts in Q2 2026,” he said, referring to obefazimod’s second clinical trial testing the drug’s efficacy over 44 weeks instead of just eight weeks.
Choplane added that most deals in the IBD space have historically been for drug candidates in early stages of development. “Avivax ticks all the boxes for a strategic acquisition,” he said.
Based on comparable transactions and a peak sales estimate of 3 billion euros, Avivax’s valuation could be in the range of 12 billion euros to 20 billion euros ($14 billion to $23 billion), Choplane told CNBC.
Recent transactions in the IBD space include: Merckx Acquired Prometheus for $10.8 billion. Roche’s Acquired Telavant for $7.1 billion. Eli Lilly then acquired Morphic for $3.2 billion. All of these deals were for assets that are in earlier stages of development than Avivax’s obefazimod.
Potentially best-in-class treatment
Jefferies analyst Roger Song, who doesn’t cover Avivax itself but closely tracks the IBD space out of Boston, said investors’ optimism comes from both the multibillion-dollar potential market for IBD drugs and the drug candidates’ novel ways to address it through multiple routes.
He told CNBC in December that it’s even considered a potentially best-in-class treatment for ulcerative colitis.
The July results of obefazimod’s clinical trials surprised investors because many were unaware of the new mechanism it uses: microRNA, Song said.
Late maintenance testing is scheduled for the second quarter of 2026.
Van der Schoot added that if Avivax is confident enough in these maintenance results, it could wait to make an acquisition after the trial is published “because then we can command a higher price.”
