Transatlantic tensions over Greenland are escalating between the United States and European countries as President Donald Trump doubles down on his ambitions to acquire the autonomous island, which is part of the Kingdom of Denmark.
President Trump said in a social media post Tuesday after a phone call with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte that there is “no turning back” to the U.S. plan. Trump added that he will meet with “a variety of parties” in Davos, Switzerland, during the annual World Economic Forum (WEF) summit this week.
Last weekend, President Trump threatened to raise trade tariffs on European countries that oppose efforts to acquire Greenland. Since the tariff threat, the European Union has been considering a response, with some member states pushing for the introduction of a “trade bazooka” option of retaliatory tariffs and restrictions that has never been used within the region.
Given Europe’s decades-long dependence on Washington, which has only deepened in recent years, is it likely that the EU will take action against the US, and could it risk a serious rift across the Atlantic?
What did President Trump say about Greenland this week?
In a series of posts on his Truth Social platform on Tuesday, President Trump reiterated his ambition to acquire Greenland and said he would meet with European leaders in Davos to discuss the issue.
Trump wrote in one post that he had a “very good phone conversation” with Rutte about Greenland. “I have agreed to a meeting of the various parties in Davos, Switzerland. As I have made clear to you, Greenland is essential to national and global security. There is no turning back. We all agree on this!” he added.
In another post, Trump shared a screenshot showing a message, presumably from Rutte, in which he wrote, “I am committed to finding a path forward on Greenland.”
In another post, he shared a screenshot of a message from French President Emmanuel Macron saying, “I don’t understand what you’re doing in Greenland.” In his message, President Macron also proposed holding a G7 meeting in Paris on Thursday.
Trump also posted a mock-up image on Tuesday, created using artificial intelligence (AI) tools, showing himself in Greenland holding a U.S. flag with the words “U.S. Territory” written on it. The image shows Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio standing behind him.
Another image shared by Trump shows him meeting with European leaders in the Oval Office. It includes a map on an easel showing the flag of the United States spanning Canada, Greenland, and Venezuela.
Why does Trump want Greenland?
The sparsely populated Arctic island of 56,000 people, mostly Inuit, is geographically in North America but politically part of Denmark and part of Europe. Although Greenland left the European Community (EC/EU) in 1985 after gaining domestic governance, it maintains a special relationship with the EU as an Overseas Country or Territory (OCT), giving Greenland residents limited domestic market access and EU citizenship through Denmark.
President Trump has long coveted Greenland for its strategic location and rich mineral deposits, including the sought-after rare earth metals needed to manufacture a wide range of technologies from smartphones to fighter jets. As a result, the island is attracting increasing interest from major countries as climate change opens up new shipping routes to the Arctic.
Currently, Greenland’s economy relies primarily on fishing. Local residents oppose large-scale mining, and no oil or gas extraction is taking place.
According to the Trump administration, the island’s geographic location between the Arctic Ocean and the North Atlantic Ocean provides the shortest air and sea routes between North America and Europe, making it important for U.S. military operations and early warning systems, particularly between Greenland, Iceland and the United Kingdom.
What trade tariffs is President Trump threatening?
On January 17, President Trump announced that starting February 1, a 10% tariff would be imposed on exports from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland to the United States.
Tariffs will rise to 25% on June 1, he said. “These tariffs must be paid until a full and complete purchase agreement for Greenland is reached,” President Trump wrote on Truth Social.
The day after President Trump posted the threat on social media, 27 EU member states held an emergency meeting.
In a joint statement, the eight countries targeted by President Trump’s new tariffs expressed their “full solidarity” with Denmark and the people of Denmark’s semi-autonomous territory of Greenland.
“Building on the process we started last week, we stand ready to engage in dialogue based on the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity that we uphold,” the statement said.
“The threat of tariffs threatens to undermine transatlantic relations and send us into a dangerous downward spiral. We will continue to respond in a united and coordinated manner. We are committed to defending our sovereignty.”
What action can Europe take against President Trump over Greenland?
European leaders are considering several responses to President Trump’s threat, from diplomacy to retaliatory tariffs to anti-coercion measures (ACI), an extreme last-ditch “trade bazooka” that could target specific goods and services with which the United States has a trade surplus with the EU.
However, the ACI, which has never been used before, was adopted by the EU in 2023 following China’s restrictions on Lithuania’s exports, and is expected to take several months to implement. This requires the agreement of at least 15 EU countries representing at least 65 percent of the region’s population. It also requires a months-long research process.
How dependent is Europe on the United States?
Europe is becoming increasingly dependent on Washington in a variety of areas.
defense
In recent years, Europe has become increasingly dependent on the United States for military and intelligence support, particularly since Russia began war in Ukraine in February 2022.
Even before that, the United States had provided significant intelligence support to Ukraine, the details of which have not been made public. However, reports and officials emphasize two important roles that Ukraine has played. First, satellite and signals intelligence helps Ukraine anticipate and prepare for a Russian attack, and second, it pinpoints the location of enemy forces and bases so that the Ukrainians can target them with missiles, including long-range systems that can reach inside Russian territory.
European NATO members received 64% of their arms imports from the United States from 2020 to 2024, up from 52% from 2015-19, according to a report published in March 2025 by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
According to NATO’s breakdown released last year, the United States contributes about 16% of NATO’s common budget, rivaled only by Germany for the largest joint budget.
“On the military side, almost half of recent European acquisitions have come from the United States, especially in critical backbone capabilities such as fighter jets, missiles, air defense, software-driven systems, and sustainment,” said Christine Nissen, chief analyst at Copenhagen-based think tank Europe.
“These dependencies are deeply entrenched through platforms, upgrades, spare parts, data, and interoperability.”
economy
Europe also relies heavily on the United States to provide technological services and economic infrastructure, such as cloud services, semiconductors, digital platforms, satellite services, cybersecurity, energy technology and parts of the financial system, Nissen said.
“In many of these areas, Europe relies on U.S. companies, standards, and regulatory coverage, which increases U.S. influence in the conflict.”
Investors in European countries hold more than $10 trillion in U.S. debt.
A bond is an investment in which an investor lends money to a government or company for a set period of time in exchange for periodic interest payments, and the principal is returned to the bondholder at maturity. Because bonds can be bought and sold on financial markets, the issuer of the bond may ultimately repay the bond to a different investor than the one who originally purchased the bond.
Bonds typically offer lower returns than stocks in the stock market, especially government bonds, which are considered to be less risky.
U.S. Treasuries are particularly popular because they are considered a “safe haven” asset. However, if relations between the United States and Europe become hostile, this safe haven will become highly politicized, as there may be a perceived risk that the United States may not repay the initial funds brought in for the bond purchase.
Furthermore, a rift in the transatlantic relationship could cause investors to panic and start selling Treasuries en masse. If many people sell at the same time, the price of a bond will fall. This means that the value of the government bonds held by EU member countries will fall and they will lose huge piles of US debt.
This is bad for the US economically, but it also means that European bondholders can no longer rely entirely on this “safe” stash of assets and may have difficulty finding other locations large enough and stable to move their money.
“The[economic]dependence is mutual but asymmetrical. For the United States, Europe is primarily a major market and industrial partner, and we have a commercial dependency. For Europe, the dependence is operationally, technologically and securityally important,” Nissen said.
“That asymmetry gives Washington lasting structural influence, regardless of who occupies the White House.”
energy
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Europe imposed sanctions on Russian oil and gradually reduced its energy dependence on Russia.
European imports of Russian gas fell by 75% between 2021 and 2025, according to a report released on Monday by the US-based Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).
In return, Europe increased its energy imports from the United States, particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG).
European LNG imports from the United States jumped from 21 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2021 to 81 bcm in 2025, almost quadrupling. “This means that EU countries sourced 57 percent of their LNG imports from the US in 2025,” the IEEFA report said.
The report also says the United States could supply nearly 75 to 80 percent of its imports by 2030 unless the EU takes back all contracted U.S. LNG and reduces gas usage.
What will happen if relations between Europe and America break down?
Europe has a lot to lose.
“A serious break with the United States is likely to reduce Europe’s access to critical military support, technology, information and energy flows, as well as parts of its financial and digital ecosystem,” Nissen said.
This dependency is why Europe has typically tried hard to avoid conflict with the United States, she said.
“In the short term, we cannot meaningfully separate Europe without real capabilities and economic costs,” Nissen said.
Europe is therefore unlikely to suddenly leave the United States, but rather gradually move away from the United States by forging new trade partnerships and developing capacity to produce essential goods and services, he added.
“Over the past few weeks, Europe has started to move more clearly towards diversification as a strategic hedge: reducing single-supplier exposure, expanding partnerships and strengthening internal resilience,” Nissen said.
“At the same time, there is a much stronger political focus on building European capabilities, including defense production, critical technologies, energy infrastructure, and industrial capabilities. The logic is not to decouple from the United States, but to reduce vulnerability and increase Europe’s room for maneuver over time.”
