England are in a good position to qualify for a fifth time in the Champions League in 2026-27, despite their disappointing run in the last 16.
Four of the six Premier League teams – Chelsea, Manchester City, Newcastle and Tottenham Hotspur – were eliminated on Tuesday and Wednesday night, leaving only Arsenal and Liverpool in contention.
However, England remain comfortably at the top of the UEFA coefficient table, which measures how each country’s clubs perform in Europe’s three competitions.
The top two finishers at the end of the campaign will be awarded an additional Champions League spot, known as the European Performance Spot. England secured one of the spots last season, along with Spain.
Here’s why the same thing is likely to happen in 2026/27.
How do coefficient tables work?
Countries are awarded points based on their clubs’ performance in the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League.
That total points is then divided by the number of clubs participating in European competitions and compiled into a table, ranking each country by average score.
A win is worth 2 coefficient points, a draw is worth 1, and a loss is worth nothing.
Additionally, bonus points will be awarded based on your finishing position in the league phase table and your progress in each knockout round.
The Champions League bonus points are much higher compared to the other two competitions.
The team that finishes top of the Champions League phase table will receive 12 bonus points. In contrast, a team that finishes top of the Europa League phase table will receive 6 points, and a team that finishes top of the Conference League phase table will receive 4 points.
raw coefficient table
Despite two-thirds of England’s Champions League teams being eliminated, England still maintain a healthy lead at the top of the table.
England are five coefficient points behind third-placed Germany, who have four teams left in the European competition. There are still five teams left in England ahead of Thursday night’s European game.
Two German teams, Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart, must overturn their first-leg defeat at home to advance to the Europa League quarter-finals.
England also have a four-point difference with second-placed Spain. England also have a five-point lead over fourth-placed Portugal, but with all Serie A teams eliminated from the Champions League, fifth-placed Italy is unable to overtake England in the rankings.
Why are England still in a good position despite all the defeats?
Part of the reason England are still in a comfortable position is due to their draw in the knockout stages.
Spain, the closest rivals in the coefficient, are weakened by the fact that Barcelona and Atletico Madrid will meet in the quarter-finals, so one team in La Liga will definitely be eliminated.
Real Madrid, the other Spanish team participating in the Champions League, will face German team Bayern Munich in the quarterfinals. If you look at the coefficient table, that is also the case for England.
In the Europa League, if both teams advance, Real Betis and Celta Vigo are scheduled to play each other in the semi-finals, which would also be a boost for England. An all-England final between Arsenal and Liverpool in the Champions League is still possible.
If Arsenal defeat Sporting CP in the Champions League quarter-finals, England will have a chance to keep Portugal at bay.
If Aston Villa or Nottingham Forest made it to the Europa League final, it would also mean they would have done better than FC Porto, who are on the draw side.
Could it still be a collapse for England?
Granted, England are not mathematically guaranteed to finish in the top five in the Champions League, and history has shown how easily that can fall apart.
In the 2023/24 season, England were destined to qualify for the Champions League further, as they did this year, but Arsenal, Manchester City and West Ham were eliminated in the European quarter-finals, which ended up hurting England.
There is therefore still work to do for Arsenal, Liverpool and the rest of the teams in Europe and the Conference Leagues to earn additional spots in Europe’s top table.
Which Premier League clubs could benefit?
Liverpool currently sit in fifth place in the Premier League, one point behind sixth-placed Chelsea and four points behind seventh-placed Brentford.
According to Opta, the top two teams (Arsenal and Manchester City) have a 100% chance of finishing in the top five, with Manchester United and Aston Villa likely to finish in the top five.
Liverpool still have a chance of 62.4 per cent, in sharp contrast to Chelsea who only have 46.7 per cent. Brentford, Newcastle, Everton and Brighton’s chances are much smaller.
There is a scenario in which seven Premier League teams could qualify for the Champions League.
If Liverpool win the Champions League and Aston Villa win the Europa League, and both teams finish outside of the top five, England will have seven teams in the Champions League.
For example, the scenario would be:
3rd place: Manchester United
4th place: Chelsea
5th place: Brentford
6th place Aston Villa (Europa League winner)
7th place: Liverpool (Champions League winner)
All of the teams mentioned above will qualify for the Champions League alongside the top two teams Arsenal and Man City.
