As shipments to the U.S. slump, Chinese exports are increasing as exporters shift shipments to other markets.
Published December 8, 2025
China’s annual goods trade surplus exceeds $1 trillion for the first time, new data shows, with exports to the United States falling amid a tariff war more than being offset by shipments to other markets.
The trade surplus for the first 11 months of this year reached $1.08 trillion in November, with exports increasing 5.9% year-on-year in the same month, reversing the previous month’s 1.1% decline, according to figures released by China’s General Administration of Customs on Monday.
The jump came despite continued stagnation in exports to the United States, which fell 28.6% last month to $33.8 billion, data showed.
China and Washington have been embroiled in a bitter trade war with high tariffs under President Donald Trump’s second administration, forcing Chinese exporters to pivot to other markets, but the leaders of the world’s two largest economies agreed to a moratorium on hostilities during talks in South Korea in October.
“China’s trade surplus this year has already exceeded last year’s level, and we expect it to widen further next year,” Capital Economics’ Jichun Huang said in a note.
Huang said the weakness in exports to the United States was “more than offset by shipments to other markets.”
Huang added that while deflation pushes down the real effective exchange rate, exports are “likely to remain resilient” due to changes in trade routes and increased price competitiveness of Chinese products.
France warns against surplus
Exports have proven crucial to China’s economy as it grapples with a debt crisis in the real estate sector and weak domestic spending, impacting growth.
But China’s large trade surplus has worried its major Western trading partners, with French President Emmanuel Macron recently threatening to take action if the imbalance is not addressed.
Fresh off a state visit to China, President Macron warned in an interview with French newspaper Les Echos on Sunday that Europe could follow the United States and impose tariffs on China if the surplus is not reduced in the coming months.
Exports to the European Union rose 14.8% annually last month, while shipments to Australia rose 35.8%. Meanwhile, fast-growing Southeast Asian countries accepted 8.2% more goods during the same period.
As a result, China’s trade surplus in November was $111.68 billion, the highest level since June, from $90.07 billion the previous month, and higher than the $100.2 billion expected.
Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, wrote in a note that a rebound in export growth in November helped “mitigate weakness in domestic demand” as economic momentum slowed, due in part to weakness in the real estate sector.
In a sign of sluggish domestic consumption, new customs data showed imports rose 1.9% in November from a year earlier, but lower than expected.
