Amid a record government shutdown and Democratic victories in year-end elections, President Donald Trump has launched a series of unusual policy proposals.
50 year mortgage? Should we pay Americans for health insurance rather than insurance companies? $2,000 dividend from customs revenue? Will air traffic controllers who work during the shutdown get a bonus? Both proposals were made within days of the president.
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We considered each of these proposals and considered whether policy experts thought they were likely to become reality.
For now, each idea is just something the president thinks about on social media. In most cases, a formal proposal and bill would need to be passed by both houses of Congress to become a reality. Other ideas, such as mortgages, would likely require significant action by lenders.
Added 50 year mortgage option
On November 8, President Trump posted a side-by-side portrait of himself and President Franklin D. Roosevelt on Truth Social, with “30 Year Mortgage” above Roosevelt and “50 Year Mortgage” above Trump. The headline was “The Great American President.”
The idea quickly drew backlash from both housing policy experts and President Trump’s own base. Politico reported that the idea came from Federal Housing Commissioner Bill Pulte.
President Trump told Fox News’ Laura Ingraham on Nov. 10: “What that means is that your monthly payments are going to be lower. You’re going to pay over a longer period of time. That’s not a huge factor. It might help a little bit.” During the interview, Mr. Ingraham corrected Mr. Trump, a lifelong real estate developer, when he said that the life of a mortgage today is 40 years, not 30.
Experts say President Trump is ignoring the downsides of 50-year mortgages.
First, the borrower ends up paying much more interest over the life of the loan.
Stein Van Neuerburg, a professor of real estate and finance at Columbia University, gave the example of a $450,000 home. With a fixed rate of 6.2% and a 20% down payment, a borrower would pay approximately $434,000 in interest on a 30-year mortgage and more than $800,000 on a 50-year mortgage.
Mortgage loans are structured so that the borrower pays off most of the interest in the early stages of the loan. If you take out a 50-year mortgage, you’ll pay a lot of interest over a longer period of time, slowing down your capital accumulation. With a 30-year mortgage, a 30-year-old buyer who wants to continue living in their home can expect to own a home mortgage-free by age 60, but that same borrower with a 50-year mortgage won’t be able to fully own the home until age 80.
Van Neuerburgh warned that lower monthly payments could cause buyers to spend more on a home, which could drive up house prices and thwart the broader affordability benefits of real estate.
pay Americans directly for their health care costs
In another post on Truth Social on Nov. 8, Trump wrote, “I encourage Senate Republicans to take the hundreds of billions of dollars currently being sent to money-siphoning insurance companies to salvage the poor health care provided by Obamacare and send it directly to the people so they can buy better health care for themselves and have money left over.”
Mr. Trump elaborated in an interview with Mr. Ingraham, saying, “Instead of giving money to insurance companies, I want people to put money into accounts where people can buy their own health insurance. That’s a very good thing. Insurance will be better. It will be cheaper.”
Without a formal proposal, it’s difficult to evaluate how this will work. But it seems similar to existing health savings accounts, which are often favored by conservatives. These accounts allow people to set aside pre-tax money to pay for out-of-pocket medical expenses, such as deductibles and copays.
However, current law generally does not allow funds in these accounts to be used to pay insurance premiums. That is not necessarily the case with President Trump’s proposal.
Some progressives said that if President Trump wants to cut insurance companies, expanding Medicare to everyone would be a way to accomplish that.
“Yes, Mr. President: That’s right. We have the ‘worst health care’ of any major nation,” Sen. Bernie Sanders responded with an X. “Despite spending twice as much per capita, we are the only major country that does not guarantee universal health care as a human right. The solution is Medicare for All.”
President Trump proposes paying Americans $2,000 from tariff dividends
President Trump has promised to give Americans $2,000 per person from the “trillions of dollars” in tariff revenue he says his administration has collected.
In a Nov. 9 post on Truth Social, President Trump said, “People who oppose tariffs are idiots!” “We have accepted trillions of dollars and will soon begin paying down our massive $37 trillion debt. Investment in the United States is at record levels, factories and factories are being built everywhere. Dividends of at least $2,000 per person will be paid to everyone (not including high-income earners!).”
There are no formal proposals yet for these tariff dividends. President Trump did not define the income limit or say whether children would receive benefits. It also did not say what form the payment would take, such as a check or tax credit.
It’s unclear whether tariff revenues will be able to cover the cost of the $2,000 per person dividend.
By the end of October, the federal government had collected about $144 billion in tariffs, more than in 2024, when tariffs were less widespread. Tax policy experts say if President Trump’s tariffs continue, tariff revenues could rise to more than $200 billion a year.
But the Tax Foundation estimates that a $2,000 tariff dividend for each person earning less than $100,000 could cover 150 million adult recipients and cost nearly $300 billion or more if children qualify. This is far more than any previous tariff increases.
Meanwhile, any new benefits would require approval from Congress, which lawmakers have refused to act on since passing the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. President Trump’s tariff powers also must go through consultation with the Supreme Court, which is hearing challenges to them.
$10,000 bonus awarded to air traffic controllers who continued working during shutdown
As the government shutdown enters its second month, President Trump criticized air traffic controllers for calling in sick, a tactic some believe was a protest against having to work without pay. The flight cancellations disrupted the civil aviation system.
Regarding Truth Social, President Trump wrote, “I recommend that air traffic controllers who are great patriots and who took no time off due to the ‘Democrat Shutdown Hoax’ receive a bonus of $10,000 each for their service to our country.”
This will require action from Congress, Transport Secretary Sean Duffy confirmed on the X-Post.
“Thank you to everyone who worked throughout the shutdown for your patriotism and commitment to keeping our skies safe,” Duffy said. “We look forward to working with Congress to reward your dedication.”
