US President Donald Trump has said he is “considering occupying” the Strait of Hormuz to keep it open. This strait connects the Gulf of Oman with the Gulf of Oman. This is the only route to the open ocean for Gulf oil producers.
The Iran war entered its 11th day on Tuesday, with continued attacks on Israeli and US assets not only in Iran but also in the Middle East, including Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
The war caused oil prices to rise. Iran has threatened to attack ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as attack U.S. military assets and infrastructure in Middle Eastern countries in retaliation for U.S. and Israeli military operations, putting about a fifth of the world’s oil supplies at serious risk.
Why did oil prices soar?
One of the main reasons is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Ebrahim Jabari, senior advisor to the commander-in-chief of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), said on March 2: “The straits are closed. If anyone tries to cross, the heroes of the Revolutionary Guards and the regular navy will set those ships on fire.”
“We will also attack oil pipelines and not a single drop of oil will leave the region. Oil prices will reach $200 within a few days,” Jabari said in a post on the Revolutionary Guard’s Telegram channel.
As a result, oil prices soared more than 30% by Sunday, with international benchmark Brent crude at one point exceeding $119 a barrel. Oil prices have since fallen, but are still above their pre-war prices on February 28, hovering around $93 a barrel as of Tuesday.
Qatar Energy, Qatar’s state-owned energy company and the world’s largest LNG producer, suspended LNG production last week following Iranian attacks on its operating facilities in Ras Laffan and Mesaieed, Qatar, putting further pressure on fuel prices.
Saudi Arabia suspended operations at Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura plant, the country’s largest refinery, after a fire that authorities said was caused by debris from intercepting two Iranian drones.
Iranian officials have publicly denied attacks on Qatar Energy and Aramco.
Energy market volatility caused by the war with Iran will worsen over time, industry insiders have warned.
“There will be a devastating impact on global oil markets. The longer the disruption lasts, the more severe the impact on the global economy will be,” Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser told reporters on Tuesday.
What is President Trump saying about the Strait of Hormuz?
In an interview with CBS News on Monday, President Trump said he was “thinking about occupying” the Strait of Hormuz to ensure its opening.
President Trump also threatened to step up attacks on Iran if it interferes with the flow of oil in the Strait of Hormuz.
“If Iran does anything to stop the flow of oil in the Strait of Hormuz, it’s going to get hit 20 times more than it has been hit by the United States,” President Trump said at a news conference in Florida on Monday.
“I will not allow a terrorist regime to hold the world hostage and try to cut off the world’s oil supply. And if Iran does anything to that end, they will be attacked at an even harsher level.”
President Trump also predicted that the war would be short-lived.
Earlier Monday, President Trump told Republican lawmakers at his golf club in Doral, Florida, “I went out a little bit because I felt like I had to do that to exclude some people. We’ve already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough yet.”
Earlier, President Trump said the war, which began on February 28, could last “four to five weeks” and that the US military had “the ability to last much longer than that.”
Can the US occupy the Strait of Hormuz?
President Trump did not explain in his CBS interview what the US plans to “take over” the straits. However, strictly speaking, the United States cannot “occupy” this strait.
“The United States has no jurisdiction over the Strait of Hormuz, and the Strait of Hormuz is not public water under UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea),” said Alexander Freeman, a partner in the maritime team at UK-based law firm Hill Dickinson. “Without the consent of Iran and Oman, who regard the Strait as sovereign territorial sea, any US occupation of the Strait, anywhere, would likely amount to a violation of Iranian and Omani jurisdiction.” The purpose is to protect the safe navigation of ships. ”
However, if a ceasefire is not reached and the strait is not reopened, ships could be escorted through the strait by the U.S. Navy or international navies.
President Trump said in an interview last week that the U.S. Navy would escort ships in the waterway “if necessary…as soon as possible.”
On Monday, President Trump reiterated this in Florida, saying, “Maybe we’ll work with them to protect them.”
Speaking in Cyprus on Monday, French President Emmanuel Macron said France and its allies were also preparing a “purely defensive” mission to escort ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz once the “most intense phase” of the U.S.-Israel war against Iran ends.
Macron gave no further details, but said a “pure escort mission” would need to be prepared by both European and non-European countries.
How is Iran responding and what is its strategy?
Iranian leaders show no signs of backing down over the war or the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The country’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Tuesday that Iran would continue fighting as long as necessary.
In an interview with CNN, Kamal Kharaji, a foreign policy adviser at the Supreme Leader’s Office, ruled out diplomacy and said the war would continue.
“I don’t have any room for diplomacy anymore, because Donald Trump deceived others and didn’t keep his promises, and we experienced this in two rounds of negotiations. During the negotiations, they shocked us,” Karaji said.
He suggested that to get diplomacy back on the table, Gulf states and others need to apply economic pressure on the United States and Israel to end the Iran war.
Rob Geist-Pinfold, a lecturer in international security at King’s College London, told Al Jazeera that Iran is engaging in a “completely different approach to war” than in the past, when it appeared to be opting for slow and steady escalation.
Pinfold said Iran’s claims that it was only attacking U.S. assets in the Gulf “must be taken with a grain of salt.” He added that Iran’s targets are primarily large infrastructure and civilian infrastructure.
“What they are doing now is to create as much chaos as possible to destabilize regional and global markets, hurt their economies, and hurt the GCC countries. The aim is that at some point the United States will decide that this conflict is no longer worth letting go and push for a ceasefire.”
What happens next?
Scott Lucas, a professor of U.S. and international politics at University College Dublin, told Al Jazeera that a worsening domestic situation for Trump could open the door for Gulf states to seek withdrawal.
Lucas added that this would be “particularly the case” if there is a further rise in oil prices in the coming days.
As the US midterm elections approach in November, domestic pressure on the Trump administration to end the war with Iran may increase.
