On Saturday, as the United States and Israel attacked Iran, US President Donald Trump sent a message to Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) conscripts, asking them to surrender or die.
“I want to say tonight to the members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the armed forces and the police: You must lay down your weapons and earn complete immunity,” Trump said. “Or you will face certain death. So lay down your weapons. You will be fully immune and treated fairly. Or you will face certain death.”
Instead, they retaliated with drone and missile attacks against Israel and several Arab states with US assets in the region. Early Sunday morning, Iranian state television announced that long-time supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei was killed in one of the attacks on Tehran.
If Trump’s appeal to the Revolutionary Guards was intended to encourage defection or abdication, it appears that it did not have the intended effect. So why did President Trump’s calls for the Revolutionary Guards to lay down their arms fall on deaf ears?
Here’s what you need to know:
What is IRGC?
It is an elite military force and a constitutionally recognized component of Iran’s military, established in 1979 after the Islamic Revolution. It operates in parallel with the country’s regular armed forces, but answers directly to the Supreme Leader.
In fact, its doctrine is built on velayat-e-faqih (guardianship of Islamic jurists), essentially protection of the Islamic revolution and loyalty to the supreme religious leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who died in 1989 and was succeeded by Ayatollah Khamenei.
It is made up of army, naval and air forces, and also includes an internal security militia known as the Basij. It also has an external operations force called the Quds Force, which focuses on special operations outside Iranian territory.
What does the IRGC do?
With a total of 600,000 personnel, including approximately 190,000 active duty personnel and reservists, it plays a key role in Iran’s defense, foreign operations, and regional influence. The Revolutionary Guards control Iran’s ballistic missile program, are responsible for the security of the country’s nuclear program, and work with regional allies known as the “Axis of Resistance.”
The Revolutionary Guards are facing severe sanctions from various countries. The United States designated the organization as an FTO (Foreign Terrorist Organization) in 2019. The European Union made a similar designation in February 2026, and Tehran responded the same month by designating all EU member states and its navy and air force as terrorist organizations.
But the Revolutionary Guards are also deeply entrenched in Iran’s political and economic structure. Its economic role expanded during the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War, when it was responsible for engineering and logistics to sustain Iran’s war effort. According to reports, companies affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards have been awarded contracts in key sectors such as Iran’s natural resources, transportation, infrastructure, telecommunications, and mining. Iranian officials call this a “resistance economy” and say this is part of how the country has evaded sanctions.
What is Basij?
The Basij, also founded by Khomeini in 1979, is a volunteer militia under the Revolutionary Guards that recruits civilians motivated by devotion to the country, although some analysts say young people also enroll seeking privileges and economic improvements.
This group is considered highly ideological and is often made up of young working-class men. The group has an estimated 450,000 employees, including those who manage the group’s communications and socio-cultural programs, according to the Institute for the Study of War.
Basij personnel are often deployed to the front lines of protests and have played a major role in countering recent uprisings against the government, including the 2009 Green Revolution and the 2022-2023 Women, Life and Freedom protests.
During the Iran-Iraq War, Basij members volunteered to serve on the front lines. They were encouraged to undertake “martyrdom missions”, clearing minefields in “human seas” to clear the battlefield so more experienced soldiers could advance.
Will they listen to Trump?
In short, the answer seems to be no.
Michael Mulroy, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East (DASD), told Al Jazeera: “Iran obviously has a supreme leader, but there are multiple different centers of power, including the clergy, the military, the Revolutionary Guards, and the intelligence community. They are unlikely to follow the actions of President Trump or Israel.”
“Everything they are saying now, including Mr. (Ali) Larijani’s recent statements, is that they are going to escalate this and essentially turn the region into an all-out war and inflict pain not just on the United States but on the Gulf states in the region as well,” Mulroy said, referring to the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.
Ideology and loyalty to the Islamic Revolution and the Supreme Leader are important ideological tenets of the Revolutionary Guards. But beyond that, mass abdications are unlikely given the economic and social power enjoyed by many member states.
In fact, some analysts believe that the recent attacks on Iran and the assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei could further extend the Revolutionary Guards’ control over the Iranian state.
Jonathan Panikov, director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, said the end of Iran’s current regime is less likely to lead to democracy than a military-controlled state that “may provide millions of conservative Iranians with a new supreme leader as a symbol, but with power firmly in the hands of the Revolutionary Guards.”
Will President Trump’s pledge have any impact after Khamenei’s death?
That’s unlikely.
Despite a tumultuous year for Iran, it is very likely that the Revolutionary Guards remain in control.
After Israel’s war with Iran in 2025, the government worked to improve public morale and allay public discontent by relaxing social freedoms and appointing advisers to influence the country’s youth.
Still, anti-government protests erupted in Iran in January, with analysts saying economic hardship caused by years of sanctions and government mismanagement were the main causes.
In terms of organizational capacity, the group replaced its leader, who was assassinated during the 2025 war with Israel. And during that period, Khamenei also reportedly appointed three potential successors and named a series of successors throughout the military chain of command.
