HOUSTON (AP) — Deadly and widespread winter storm Ice, snow and cold that have paralyzed much of the eastern United States are also causing a multibillion-dollar hit to the U.S. economy, experts estimate.
But how much? Economists and meteorologists are trying to understand the disruption costs of winter weather disasters, but it’s not as easy to calculate as building destruction from hurricanes, floods, and fires.
“Events like this storm highlight how interconnected our nation’s economy is with weather conditions,” said Jacob Fuchs, a research economist at Colorado State University’s Cooperative Atmospheric Research Institute.
Fuchs said that although there is no consensus among researchers, most estimates suggest that extreme weather events collectively could reduce gross domestic product by 0.5% to 2% a year, which he called “very significant.”
US GDP is about $30 trillion a year, so that’s $150 billion to $600 billion.
A private company puts a hefty price tag on Arashi.
Most economists, meteorologists and disaster experts said it was too early to estimate the true cost of the weekend’s storms and next week’s subzero temperatures. However, the private company AccuWeather has released a preliminary forecast for the storm. 11,400 flights grounded The amount was between $105 billion and $115 billion, which six other experts derided as too high and lacking in detail.
“A lot of that is due to the cost of commercial disruption and power outages,” AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter told The Associated Press at the American Meteorological Society’s annual convention in chilly Houston. “Some businesses will be closed for several days, even a week, or longer.”
That’s why AccuWeather is calling this “the storm that stopped everything,” Porter said. At least 25 people had died by Monday.
In addition, frozen power lines will cause hundreds of thousands of people to lose power, trees will be lost, cars will be damaged and all flights will be canceled, Porter said. He noted that resuming air travel and restoring power will take time.
Other experts say it’s too expensive
Climate economist Adam Smith, who previously managed the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s billion-dollar weather disaster list, said the storm’s damage could easily run into the billions of dollars, making it the country’s first billion-dollar weather disaster in 2026.
But Smith, now a senior climate impact scientist at Climate Central, said it won’t cost as much as AccuWeather suggests. He said the private company is an outlier among climate impact and economics experts. He pointed to the private company’s initial estimates. $250 billion Due to last year’s damage wildfires in los angeles. Several climate, risk and insurance groups are all awaiting extensive analysis, with the actual amount Approximately $60 billion.
AccuWeather did not immediately respond to a follow-up message seeking comment.
So far, the deadliest winter storm on record in the United States has been 2021 Texas Ice StormThe cost would be about $26 billion, Smith and Fuchs said. The 2016 Northeast Blizzard caused about $3 billion in damage, Fuchs said.
Smith said this weekend’s storms could be so widespread that they could approach the damage caused by the 2021 Texas storm.
The costs of some storms are difficult to quantify
There are significant differences in the types of losses talked about in winter storms and other weather disasters.
Hurricanes, fires, and floods cause damage to buildings, infrastructure, and property, which insurance companies pay for. In snow and ice storms, much of that loss is opportunity loss, which is more amorphous and harder to quantify, said Smith, Northern Illinois University meteorology professor Victor Gensini, former National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration chief scientist Ryan Maue, and former National Weather Service Director Louis Uccellini.
“When we talk about billions of dollars in damage, we’re talking about hurricane damage. We’re basically talking about insurance-paid losses,” Maue said. “Generally, people don’t get retaliated against for bad weather.”
Uccellini noted that it can be difficult to understand the cost of these missed opportunities. That’s in part because research shows that some companies may emerge as economic winners during winter storms — such as hardware stores that sell more shovels and salt, or grocery stores that sell more food.
Colorado’s Fuchs said losses still appear to far outweigh gains. He cited disruptions to supply chains and business operations, and response costs for emergency managers and the transportation sector.
Porter and others say costs add up regardless of how they are calculated.
As the climate warms, costly weather disasters “are occurring around the world and are increasing in frequency and impact,” Porter said. “This is just a recent example.”
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