With no clear dominant car emerging during F1’s extended 2026 pre-season testing schedule, seven drivers will arrive at the season-opening Australian Grand Prix purely hoping to win this year’s world championship.
F1’s ‘big four’ – McLaren, Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari – still appear to be at the top of the pecking order, effectively reset by the introduction of both new power unit and chassis regulations for the 2026 season, but their position remains uncertain and subject to change.
It seems certain that the world champion will emerge from one of these teams, but bookmakers have struggled to separate the candidates, with the current odds grouping the top seven teams closely together.
With just over a week left until cars take to the track for first practice in Melbourne, Sky Sports F1 assesses the prospects and challenges for each title hopeful.
At the time of writing, here is the order in which UK bookmakers have ranked their chances of winning the title:
george russell, mercedes
When Russell was recalled to Mercedes for the 2022 season after three years on loan at Williams, the Briton thought he would jump into the best car on the grid and the chance to fight for wins and the title.
Instead, Mercedes struggled throughout the four years of the Grand Effect era, and despite Russell’s rise to fame, he won just five races during that time.
Russell has become a key figure at Mercedes following Lewis Hamilton’s move to Ferrari for the 2025 season, but he is finally getting the chance he thought was coming four years ago.
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Hear from George Russell, Oscar Piastri and many more after the third and final day of the second Test in Bahrain
Russell proved he was a match for Hamilton and set himself apart from his contemporaries last season by dominating rookie teammate Kimi Antonelli while also competing with Max Verstappen on and off the track.
Russell, who turned 28 in February, has developed into a driver who looks like he has all the tools to win a championship and is desperate to prove he can achieve his lifelong dream.
As with any driver aiming for his first title, the question that needs to be answered is whether Russell can maintain the impressive level he has shown over the past few years under the pressure of competing for the championship.
Max Verstappen, Red Bull
Bookmakers’ ranking of Verstappen throughout pre-season reflects how well-respected the four-time world champion is, given that few expect his Red Bull to be the fastest car on the grid this season.
Despite the challenges facing the team in producing its own power unit for the first time, Verstappen showed last year that he is still a threat even in an inferior car.
McLaren won last year’s constructors’ championship by 382 points over Red Bull, but Verstappen was somehow still just a few points away from clinching a fifth consecutive drivers’ title.
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F1’s most intense moments that happened outside the car
Verstappen’s rivals rightly profess to have no fear of the Dutchman, but the consensus in the paddock is that Verstappen was at his own level during his time at Ground Effect.
Despite making some derogatory comments about F1’s new car, Verstappen immediately showed his ability to get more out of it than most.
The energy deployment strategy he used by downshifting into corners in Bahrain was quickly copied by other players, suggesting the Dutchman will continue to find ways to shine.
If Red Bull are unable to offer him a place to compete for the title, there will no doubt be speculation about his future, and other top teams are sure to be interested as well.
charles leclerc, ferrari
Ferrari’s 2025 was such an underwhelming result that few were talking about the driver as a title contender this year, but a surprising performance in testing has turned that view on its head.
Leclerc was early to take the Ferrari seat for the 2019 F1 season at the age of 21, but like Russell, he has yet to be given a car that will allow him to continue to challenge for the title.
The Monaco’s speed has never been in doubt, but the fact that only five of his 27 pole positions have resulted in wins (and three Grand Prix wins have come from elsewhere on the grid) raises questions about whether he has it all.
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Join Charles Leclerc as he sets fastest lap at Bahrain Test 2
He could argue that he simply outperformed his car by taking some unlikely pole positions, but his reputation for too many shunts means he still has his share of skeptics.
2025 was arguably Leclerc’s most impressive season as he comfortably outperformed his teammate despite Ferrari’s off-pace (more on him later), but like Russell, he has yet to prove he can perform consistently under pressure.
lewis hamilton, ferrari
It’s natural that Ferrari’s drivers, who have improved significantly over the last year, will be more favored by bookmakers, but Hamilton will point out extenuating circumstances.
The 2025 Ferrari will have features that Leclerc has become accustomed to over previous seasons, and Hamilton claims he will be helped by the fact that his “DNA” has been incorporated into the design of this year’s SF-26.
For Hamilton to be in contention for the title, he will need to prove that his poor qualifying performance over two years was due to something technical, rather than some of the 41-year-old’s talent slipping away.
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Lewis Hamilton says he feels more at home with the 2026 car after leaving last season ‘putting it behind me’
While there were potential concerns about missing significant time in the final test in Bahrain due to a technical problem during a scheduled session on track, Hamilton also expressed frustration at the fact that he is waiting for a new full-time race engineer to join the team at such an early stage in the season.
However, social media posts after the test suggested Hamilton was focused and confident. “For a moment, I forgot who I was,” he wrote, apparently referring to the self-doubt he experienced late in the 2025 season.
A return to the front of the grid will no doubt add a thrilling extra dimension to this season’s action if Hamilton is to challenge for the eighth title he so miserably eluded in 2021.
Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes)
Antonelli may only be in his second F1 campaign, but if Mercedes have the best car for the majority of the season, he should be considered a title contender.
Antonelli overcame a difficult period during last summer’s European Series races, enduring six no-points finishes in seven races by matching and even winning teammate Russell in the final stages of the season.
The 19-year-old was particularly impressive on his first outing in Brazil, finishing second in the sprint and ahead of Verstappen in the Sao Paulo Grand Prix itself.
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Kimi Antonelli’s Mercedes had no energy coming out of Turn 10 and was unable to start the car again, resulting in a red flag.
If Antonelli can consistently show that level of speed, he could give Russell some problems, which could mean a potential shot at a championship.
One advantage the Italian has found is that he has driven a huge variety of cars since stepping up from karts to single-seaters in 2021.
Given the resetting of the regulations and the need to adapt to his own driving, the new rules could play into Antonelli’s hands while experienced drivers forget some of their usual techniques.
lando norris, mclaren
Throughout his career, Norris has faced questions about whether he has the mentality to become a world champion.
He finally answered them, aiming to become the latest Brit to join the list of F1 royalty in the final stages of 2025.
It is unclear how much his title-winning campaign enhanced his reputation, given that Norris was far from perfect and had clearly the best cars on the grid all season.
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Lando Norris says his McLaren team needs further improvements to its car if it is to challenge for the world title again this season
Norris has been open about how stressed he is chasing his dream of becoming a world champion, but the question in his case is whether getting the monkey off his back will give him a new level of calm and performance in the cockpit.
Norris is in his eighth season in F1 with McLaren, but he doesn’t turn 27 until November and theoretically could have his best years yet ahead of him.
He insists his motivation is even stronger than last year and will surely relish getting the chance to turn the tide against his rivals who seemed to be relishing exploiting the pressure he was under in 2025.
Oscar Piastri, McLaren
If Piastri can make the same jump in performance this season as he did from 2024 to 2025, he should be a title contender again, provided McLaren has a strong car.
Piastri has no doubt learned from his poor form after the nightmare that saw him crash twice in Baku and begin the eventual collapse of the championship.
Most F1 drivers usually reach their peak after five seasons, so perhaps we’ve never seen Piastri’s finished product, but this bodes well for the Australian entering his fourth season.
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McLaren’s Oscar Piastri was “stuck” on track on the second day of testing before Lewis Hamilton made his second practice start in a Ferrari.
The 24-year-old must start 2026 strong to avoid Norris’ momentum from becoming world champion spilling over into the first half of this season.
If Piastri makes an early charge like he did in 2025, when he took eight consecutive podiums, including nine wins, knowing what went wrong during the run-in, Piastri could become a threat again and McLaren could find its drivers fighting for the same pavement several times.
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