Despite a complete reset of F1’s regulations for the 2026 season, reigning champions McLaren appear to be entering the sport’s new era with more confidence than their likely main rivals.
The new technical regulations have not come at an ideal time for McLaren, with the Woking team dominating to retain the constructors’ championship in 2025 and Lando Norris winning the team’s first drivers’ championship since 2008.
Significant changes to the power unit, chassis and aerodynamic rules have made it almost impossible to predict the 2026 standings, but many will be hoping that the 2025 top four (McLaren, Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari) will ensure they remain at the front of the grid.
The changes mean there will be more testing than usual, with the first of three events to be held in Barcelona at the end of January, followed by two more tests in Bahrain in February.
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On the F1 Show podcast, Karun Chandhok, Bernie Collins and Ted Kravitz discuss their expectations for the 2026 season, which features new regulations.
All 24 rounds of the season will be broadcast live on Sky Sports F1, with the real action starting in Australia from March 6th to 8th.
The 2025 season concluded in Abu Dhabi in early December, but after the final race, representatives from each of the Big Four teams were asked about their hopes and expectations amidst the biggest technological change in the history of the sport.
Wolff says there is a possibility that the engine has an advantage, but is “absolutely not confident”
Paddock gossip over the past year or so suggested something of a consensus that Mercedes had developed a new engine that was better than its rivals and could potentially steal the march forward from the rest of the field.
It will also be used by McLaren, Williams and Alpine, giving those teams an opportunity to exploit it in theory.
Toto Wolff played down suggestions Mercedes could gain an engine advantage in 2026
In addition to whispers from those working at the factory, confidence in Mercedes is also based on its success when the new engine was last introduced in 2014, after which the Silver Arrows won eight consecutive constructors’ titles.
But after four harrowing years in the ground effects era, Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff does not expect a repeat of the dominance his team enjoyed in 2014.
“There’s no comparison,” he said. “The grid is much more competitive than in previous years.”
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Gary Neville experiences what it’s like to be part of Mercedes’ F1 team in Qatar.
Asked whether Mercedes’ recent aero failures gave him confidence in a return to glory, Wolff added: “I’m definitely not confident. I’m a glass-half-empty guy.”
“We just have to do everything we can to bring out a car with a competitive power unit that is competitive enough to fight for the world championship.
“It is very difficult to predict because we have set goals that we are on track to achieve, but only the future will tell whether we have set those goals ambitious enough and whether they are set in the right place in terms of priorities.”
Will Ferrari’s credibility be damaged by the disastrous 2025?
Ferrari endured an even more disappointing 2025 season than Mercedes, and despite starting the year expected to be McLaren’s main rival for the title, they finished the season winless in fourth place in the constructors’ standings.
Lewis Hamilton was left in despair after ending his F1 season without a grand prix podium for the first time in his legendary career.
Fred Vasseur, who took over as Ferrari team principal at the start of 2023, has been particularly invigorated heading into the past two seasons, making clear his aim is to end a trophy drought dating back to 2008.
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Karun Chandhok and Ted Kravitz discuss what Lewis Hamilton will do if Ferrari fails in 2026
It is therefore equally noteworthy that even the fact that Ferrari halted development of the 2025 car early in order to switch its attention to 2026 fails to provide much reassurance, and that his confidence in this project seems to have been somewhat damaged.
Asked about his expectations for 2026, Vasseur said: “I have no idea about that. You know very well that our sport is comparable. I can do a good job, but if someone did a better job, I would look stupid.”
“We try to focus on the project, develop the project, push the limits and do our best. Indeed, the more time we spend on the project, the better the outcome.
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F1 president and chief executive Stefano Domenicali talks to Craig Slater to reflect on a great season, Lando Norris’ future, Ferrari’s road to recovery and where the sport goes next.
“But we don’t know if McLaren, Red Bull or Alpine are ahead of us. This is anyone’s guess. I think the most important thing is not to spend time trying to understand whether other teams are ahead or behind.”
Mr Vasseur also warned against overreacting to the results of the first race in Australia.
“Development and the ability to develop quickly is going to be important,” he said. “The season doesn’t end in Australia. It doesn’t matter if we’re first or 10th. It’s a long way to the end for everyone.”
Red Bull prepares for ‘tough few months’ amid engine concerns
In contrast to Mercedes and Ferrari, Red Bull finished the season at the front with Max Verstappen winning the last three races and almost neatly cornering Norris in the title race.
Coach Laurent Mekies appears to have had a major positive impact since replacing Christian Horner as team principal in July, but further progress under the Frenchman’s leadership could be hampered by a major handicap.
Red Bull is producing its own engines for the first time in the team’s history, with support from American car giant Ford, creating challenges that Mekies spoke candidly about in Abu Dhabi.
Laurent Mequise admits Red Bull faces big challenges in 2026
“It was a crazy decision[to build the engine]probably something only Red Bull could make,” Mekies said. “We started in this field and now we have a building and 600 employees, and we are going up against people who have been in this field for 90 years.
“We love the challenge and we love the idea. It’s very Red Bull to do this with Ford and we’re very proud. It’s naive to think we’ll be in the lead there right away.”
“So I know it’s going to be a very tough few months, some sleepless nights, some headaches, but it’s also part of the privilege to be involved in this kind of challenge.”
All-star technical team Stella is ‘optimistic’ for 2026
McLaren has made a remarkable recovery during the ground effects era, bouncing back from a dismal start to the 2023 season to finish with titles in 2024 and 2025.
Andrea Stella’s promotion to team principal in December 2022 proved to be an inspiring appointment, although few in the sport believed that such a change was possible within the rule-setting.
The Italian, who for the most part speaks very carefully and thoughtfully, of course shares the sentiment of his colleagues that it is impossible to predict where each team will finish this year.
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Bernie Collins believes McLaren will maintain its approach with its drivers next year and predicts Oscar Piastri will be looking to prove he’s not just a second driver in the first few races of 2026.
However, compared to their comments, it is notable that he is willing to express optimism about how McLaren will ultimately end up in 2026. His positivity is mainly inspired by the all-star technical team he has assembled.
“In the end, the technical team conceived, designed and developed a car that went from being in ninth or 10th place at the beginning of 2023 to being one of the best cars at the end of 2023, and gradually becoming arguably the best car in the first half of 2025,” Stella said.
“I think this is one of the strongest technical departments in my 26-year career in F1.
“This means that although the details of the current regulations do not necessarily apply in the future to the working methods, standards and approach to developing the car towards our goals from a technical point of view, they will also apply in the future, which makes us optimistic for the 2026 season.”
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