Lando Norris could become the 2025 F1 world champion at Sunday’s Qatar Grand Prix, but how can he do it?
How can Norris win a championship?
Oscar Piastri won Saturday’s sprint in Qatar, with Norris third and Max Verstappen fourth.
Piastri has cut his title lead over Norris to 22 points, while Verstappen now has a 25-point lead with a maximum of 50 points left, with only two races remaining – Qatar on Sunday and Abu Dhabi next weekend.
After the Qatar GP, Norris will be world champion with a lead of at least 26 points over Piastri and at least 25 points over Verstappen (lights out for Sky Sports F1 live coverage at 4pm) with a race to spare. That means he has to pick up four points from Piastri and essentially finish ahead of Verstappen.
The title contenders started at the front of the grid, with Piastri in pole position, Norris second and Verstappen third.
There are two most likely scenarios for Norris to win the title on Sunday: either he wins the race by at least seven points over his two rivals, or Piastri misses the podium and finishes second ahead of Verstappen.
Norris needs to finish inside the top eight on Sunday to have any chance of clinching the title, but he will need plenty of help from Piastri and Verstappen.
What are the chances for Piastri and Verstappen now?
The sprint doesn’t change much as Norris still holds the championship. Piastri and Verstappen will need to effectively beat the British driver to remain in title contention, but Piastri could be forgiven for a DNF if Norris scores fewer than four points.
Realistically, both drivers will want to get at least double-digit points from Norris in Sunday’s race to have a better chance in Abu Dhabi, and the best way to do that would be to win.
Piastri could do so if he wins from pole position again on Sunday and continues his good form from the sprint part of the weekend in Qatar, while Verstappen will be hoping that Red Bull’s set-up has been changed and the car from main qualifying carries over into the race.
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McLaren CEO Zac Brown likens Max Verstappen’s aggression during Qatar Grand Prix to a character in a horror movie
For Verstappen, he needs to be within 24 points of Norris to make a stunning comeback in the final race in Abu Dhabi.
The reason it won’t be 25 points is because even if Verstappen were to win in Abu Dhabi, he would still be tied with Norris with seven wins. Therefore, in a tie-break scenario, second place is decided, with Norris currently in eighth place and Verstappen in fourth place.
As the McLaren duo have the same number of wins (eight), Piastri still has room to lead Norris by exactly 25 points, and a victory for Piastri in Abu Dhabi would move him into ninth place and make him world champion on countback.
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Highlights of the 2025 Qatar GP sprint won by Oscar Piastri
Will McLaren back Norris?
McLaren has consistently said it will support both drivers’ championship ambitions until they are mathematically removed from title contention.
Earlier this month, McLaren CEO Zak Brown said he would rather lose the championship to Verstappen than support one of his drivers.
Brown was referring to the 2007 F1 season, when McLaren’s Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso narrowly lost the drivers’ championship to Kimi Raikkonen, and the team did not field a single driver.
Raikkonen scored 17 points, which would be 42 according to today’s points system, and although he fell behind then-championship leader Hamilton with two rounds remaining, he still overturned the gap.
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The moment McLaren’s Oscar Piastri pushes Mercedes’ George Russell to pole position in the Qatar GP sprint race
“That’s not the way we race. If 2007 were to happen again, I’d prefer that outcome over any other outcome against the favorites, but we’re not going to do that,” Brown said.
Given that Piastri is within race-winning range of Norris, McLaren will stick to their principles despite Verstappen’s serious threat.
And the Woking-based side will not be able to rely on Piastri to play a backup role in case Norris does poorly in Qatar on Sunday.
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Max Verstappen claimed Lando Norris cut him off at Turn 16 at the Qatar Grand Prix, but Norris later said Verstappen did the same thing at Turn 1 during sprint qualifying.
Team principal Andrea Stella previously said: “There’s no reason to do that. We’ve always said that unless the math dictates otherwise, we’ll leave it to the two drivers to fight for the chance of winning in the end, and that will be the case in Qatar as well.”
“Let’s not forget that if someone had told us at the beginning of the season that it would be like this with two races left, we would have signed for it! Now, with confidence and knowing our strength, we will fight for a double world championship.”
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Max Verstappen, Lando Norris and George Russell take to the podium in a pink Lego Cadillac by White Chicks star Terry Crews – Las Vegas exclusive!
Will McLaren be more cautious following the Las Vegas disqualification?
For now, the answer appears to be no. There was a theory that McLaren needed to raise the ride height of its car in Qatar. The finless porpoise phenomenon is a phenomenon in which a car bounces at high speed, and this is to prevent the skid blocks and boards underneath the car from wearing out.
But they had the car to win in Qatar and there were no signs of the big sparks flying off the car like we saw in Las Vegas.
The courses in Qatar and Abu Dhabi are also relatively smooth compared to Las Vegas, but there could be some tension in the McLaren garage after the race in case of repeated disqualifications.
Sky Sports F1 Qatar GP Schedule
Sunday, November 30th
11:55am: F2 Feature Race
2:30pm: Grand Prix Sunday: Qatar GP Build-up
4pm: Qatar Grand Prix
6pm: Checkered flag: Qatar GP reaction
7pm: Ted’s Notes
F1’s thrilling title race continues with the Qatar Grand Prix from 4pm on Sunday (build-up from 2.30pm, live on Sky Sports F1. Stream Sky Sports now – no contract, cancel anytime)
