F1 testing has always been a mystery as to which team actually has the fastest car, but the 2026 pre-season mystery is shaping up to be one of the most confusing and complex in the sport’s history.
Two-thirds of the extended testing schedule has been completed, dispelling any notion of a complete shake-up of the established pecking order, but who is the fastest of the ‘big four’ is still up for debate.
Listed in order of winning the constructors’ championship last year, McLaren, Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari all claim that they are not the fastest, and that at least one of the others is.
While in the past it might have been easier for a neutral bystander to figure out who was telling the truth, the introduction of both a new chassis and power unit as part of radical new regulations for the 2026 season means there are many unknowns.
In the final stages of Friday’s track action, Sky Sports F1’s Ted Kravitz likened the situation to a game of “passing the baggage”, but why has everything become so complicated?
Who left an impression on you in Bahrain?
Looking at the numbers alone, Kimi Antonelli set Mercedes’ fastest time of the week with Kimi Antonelli setting a time of 1 minute 33.669 seconds, both setting the fastest time of the week on Friday, putting him a few tenths ahead of teammate George Russell.
Ferrari was next on the timesheets, half a second behind Antonelli, with less than 10 seconds separating Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc. The McLaren of Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris then followed a few tenths behind, followed closely by Red Bull’s Max Verstappen.
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Watch highlights from day 3 of the first Bahrain pre-season test.
In terms of distance covered, McLaren’s total of 422 laps beat Ferrari by just one circuit, Red Bull completed 343 laps after running was interrupted by an oil pressure leak on Thursday morning, while Mercedes was limited to 282 laps due to a number of different issues.
A high number of laps is an indicator of high reliability, which is very important, but lead time should still be taken with a grain of salt at this stage as it is very unlikely that the team will be at full pace at this stage.
Perhaps the most reliable indicator of performance at this stage is race simulation, and this is where Ferrari excelled. After upgrades were introduced to the SF-26 on Thursday, Leclerc and Hamilton posted consistently fast times in the evening sessions over the final two days.
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Hear how F1 drivers singled out each other during the first Bahrain pre-season test this week and see who impressed.
Verstappen was quick on the first long run, but judging from Norris and Piastri’s numbers, McLaren was a few tenths off the pace of Ferrari and Red Bull.
Mercedes were also behind in the long runs until Antonelli matched Hamilton’s race simulation in the final hours of testing, but overall Ferrari had the most impressive all-round performance all week.
Is Mercedes sandbagging amid engine dispute?
Every year, pre-season testing takes place with the caveat that everything may not be as it seems, with teams potentially wanting to hide their true performance until the first qualifying session of the season, which this year will take place at the Australian Grand Prix from March 6th to 8th.
However, Mercedes may be more motivated than usual by not being able to perform at full capacity at this stage – the “sandbag” as it is known in the paddock.
The biggest topic of pre-season was the dispute over the new power unit, centered around compression ratio limits, amid suggestions from rivals that Mercedes and Red Bull may have found a way to achieve higher limits than theoretically imposed by the new regulations.
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George Russell has admitted that Mercedes suffered reliability issues during the first Bahrain test.
Mercedes and Red Bull initially dismissed suggestions that the rules could be changed, but ahead of the Bahrain test it emerged the latter had joined three other engine manufacturers in lobbying the FIA to “level the playing field”.
Mercedes manager Toto Wolff, who lost his temper at a team presentation on February 2 when he suggested his rivals “get together”, struck a much more conciliatory tone this week in Bahrain, appearing to accept that a rule change was now a realistic possibility.
Lobbying from Mercedes’ rival manufacturers was further strengthened by the Silver Arrows’ flawless performance at the Barcelona Shakedown in late January. Most people thought that Silver Arrows was clearly a step ahead of other manufacturers.
A decision could be made at the F1 committee meeting next week, but there are theories that it would not be in Mercedes’ interests to maintain a clear lead at the first Bahrain test.
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Toto Wolff has backed Mercedes amid the ongoing engine row and said the team had the support of the FIA.
That’s at least partly why Mercedes’ claims that Red Bull is much faster than them are met with skepticism.
On the issue, four-time world champion Verstappen was characteristically frank, saying: “They obviously want to shift the focus to us because we did so many laps on Wednesday. But you have to look at it from both sides. Let’s wait until Melbourne and see how fast they suddenly become on all the straights.”
Leclerc shared similar sentiments, speaking to Sky Sports F1. “I think we’ve seen some very impressive things with the Mercedes engine, but they haven’t shown it at all. And when I say things like that, we’re talking about quite a lot.”
But what about Red Bull’s deployment advantages?
Outside of Mercedes and the other three teams it supplies engines to (McLaren, Williams and Alpine), there seems to be a consensus that some performance is being held back, but of course there are politics at play.
It’s understandable that Ferrari, Audi and Honda, who are reportedly not taking advantage of the compression ratio loophole, would want to take action, but what about Red Bull?
At its launch in January, Red Bull engine boss Ben Hodgkinson described complaints about compression ratios as “a lot of noise about nothing”, but he is now understood to be in line with those calling for a rule change.
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Red Bull technical director Pierre Wash feels that Mercedes, McLaren and Ferrari are at the top of the list in comparison.
It’s unclear why, but Red Bull has far exceeded expectations in its first foray into engine manufacturing, producing excellent reliability so far, and it also appears to be developing an energy introduction system that is now leading the field.
It was this deployment system that Mercedes focused on this week, as Wolff claimed that Red Bull were indeed setting a “benchmark”. It’s also worth noting that others were also shocked by Red Bull’s performance, with Leclerc describing them as “very impressive”.
The complexity of the new power unit makes it difficult to pinpoint where Red Bull could gain an advantage, but Russell described it as “somewhere between hardware and deployment”.
Red Bull’s apparent shift in position on the compression ratio debate suggests that Mercedes could have exploited that area better, and perhaps need to rein in the Silver Arrows’ power unit to enable their own apparent efficiency advantage.
In any case, it will be interesting to see how Red Bull team principal Laurent Mequise, who was absent from Bahrain this week following a planned minor surgery, approaches the subject next week.
Why the lack of Ferrari excitement?
In normal times, a week like Ferrari’s would have caused a lot of excitement around the sport’s most popular team.
Indeed, we only heard from Lewis Hamilton before driving the SF-26 with upgrades that appeared to improve it significantly, but the seven-time world champion didn’t express much optimism or enthusiasm about his prospects.
Leclerc and Ferrari manager Fred Vasuer have both downplayed expectations, claiming their rivals are holding back key performances, but no F1 team will say they think they have the upper hand at this stage.
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Fred Vasseur has played down the hype surrounding Charles Leclerc’s high-speed race simulation on day two of Bahrain as he believes other teams are “not in maximum condition”.
So it’s actually more beneficial to use your rival’s pit wall, which is in the best position to judge who has the really fast car, to evaluate the opinions of experts coming from elsewhere in the paddock.
So it was notable on Friday that sentiment shifted slightly in Ferrari’s favor for the first time this pre-season, although questions remain about how much resistance Mercedes will put up.
McLaren team principal Andrea Stella said on Friday night: “I think the early signs from a competitive standpoint definitely put Ferrari and Mercedes at the top of the list, especially as they seem to be ready from a performance standpoint.”
Frankly, Ferrari have had a dismal year of not winning a Grand Prix all year since 2025, when they were considered pre-season contenders, so just being included in the discussion is progress in itself.
What will happen to McLaren’s title defense?
McLaren is in an interesting position because its engines are sourced from Mercedes.
Unlike Mercedes customers Williams and Alpine, they have chosen to stay largely out of the discussion of power unit compression ratios.
Regardless of where McLaren thinks it stands in its relationship with Mercedes at the moment, it will no doubt be hoping that Mercedes’ claim that it has the strongest power unit is true. This is because it will set the stage for McLaren’s continued success through this generation of rules.
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Lando Norris said his McLaren could not match the pace of his Ferrari on the second day of testing in Bahrain.
So the assessment by Stella and reigning world champion Lando Norris that Ferrari, Mercedes and Red Bull are all faster than them doesn’t seem to be political.
“We’re not that close to them at the moment,” Norris said of Ferrari on Thursday. “We’re certainly not bad, but we’re not fast enough.”
Despite McLaren having won the last two constructors’ titles and fielding an all-star technical team, it was widely assumed, at least at the start of this season, that Mercedes would have an advantage over McLaren as a works team.
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Watch highlights from day two of the first Bahrain pre-season test.
When considering their prospects, it is worth considering the words of Vasseur, who insists that while there is a lot of noise about the current competitive situation, it is a long season and will be determined by development.
“A year ago, everyone was struggling to find one-hundredth of a second, and now it’s more like one-tenth of a second,” Vasseur said. “The competition will be more focused on development than on the initial potential of the car.”
Sky Sports F1 Bahrain test schedule
Test 2: Wednesday 18th, Thursday 19th, Friday 20th February
6:50am – 11:05am: Morning Session Live 11:55am – 4:10pm: Afternoon Session Live 8:00pm: Test Lap
Watch every race of the 2026 F1 season live on Sky Sports, including the Australian Grand Prix from March 6-8. Stream Sky Sports now – cancel anytime with no contract
