The U.S. oil blockade has caused a severe energy crisis in Cuba, forcing the government to ration fuel and cut power outages for many hours a day, paralyzing life in the communist-ruled island nation of 11 million people.
Living with near-permanent power outages, bus stops are empty and families rely on wood and coal for cooking as the economic crisis worsens due to Trump administration actions in recent weeks.
President Miguel Diaz-Canel has imposed tough emergency restrictions on everything from reduced working hours to fuel sales, against the backdrop of a looming threat of regime change from the White House.
The Caribbean region has been under tension since U.S. forces abducted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro last month, increasing pressure to isolate Havana and strain the economy. Venezuela, Cuba’s closest ally in the region, supplied Cuba with much-needed fuel.
So how dire is the situation in Cuba? What does US President Donald Trump want for Havana? And how long can Cuba hold out?
What are Cuba’s emergency measures?
Cuba’s Deputy Prime Minister Óscar Pérez Oliva Fraga on Friday blamed the United States for the crisis and appeared on state television to inform millions of emergency measures “to maintain the country’s essential functions and basic services while managing limited fuel resources.”
Currently, Cuba’s state-owned enterprises will move to a four-day work week, interprovincial transportation will be suspended, major tourist attractions will be closed, school days will be shortened, and requirements for in-person attendance at universities will be eased.
“The fuel will be used to protect essential services for the population and essential economic activities,” Perez Oliva said. “This is an opportunity and a challenge, and I am confident that we will overcome it. We are not going to collapse.”
The government says it will prioritize fuels that can be used for essential services such as public health, food production and defence, and promote the establishment of and incentives for the solar-based renewable energy sector. Prioritizing energy shifts to specific food-producing regions and accelerating the use of renewable energy sources, while cutting back on cultural and sporting activities and directing resources to national early warning systems.
Why did the US block oil from entering Cuba?
Decades of harsh U.S. economic sanctions against Cuba, the Caribbean’s largest island, have devastated the country’s economy and isolated it from international trade. Cuba was dependent on foreign allies such as Mexico, Russia, and Venezuela for oil shipments.
However, after US forces abducted Venezuelan President Maduro, Washington blocked Venezuelan oil from being sent to Cuba. President Trump now says the Cuban government is ready to collapse.
Under the Trump administration, Washington wants to pivot to and dominate the Western Hemisphere. Military action in Venezuela, a pledge to take over Greenland, and regime change in Cuba are part of the new policy.
Last month, President Trump signed an executive order labeling Cuba a threat to national security and imposing tariffs on all countries that sell or provide oil to the island nation. Cuba’s oil stocks have reportedly reached an all-time low due to further pressure on the Mexican government.
When asked about Cuba’s economy last month, President Trump told reporters, “It looks like we’re not going to survive this way.” “It’s a failed state.”
Havana has rejected accusations that it poses a threat to U.S. security. Cuba’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement last week calling for dialogue.
“The Cuban people and the American people benefit from constructive engagement, legitimate cooperation, and peaceful coexistence. Cuba reaffirms its readiness to maintain a respectful and mutually beneficial dialogue with the United States government, based on mutual interests and international law, and aimed at concrete results,” the ministry said in a statement on February 2.
President Trump’s goals in Cuba remain unclear. But U.S. officials have repeatedly said they want the government to change.
“We want the regime there to change. That doesn’t mean we’re going to change, but we would love to see change,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in response to a question at a U.S. Senate hearing on Venezuela.
Rubio is of Cuban descent and is one of the most powerful people in the Trump administration.
“The Cuban-American lobby, which Mr. Rubio represents, is one of the most powerful foreign policy lobbies in the United States today,” Ed Augustin, an independent journalist based in Havana, told Al Jazeera’s The Take.
“In the new Trump administration, which has an unprecedented number of Cuban-Americans, lobbyists have become the policy makers,” he said, adding that Rubio had established tight control over the lobby.
On January 31, President Trump told reporters: “It doesn’t have to be a humanitarian crisis. I think they’ll probably want to come to us and make a deal. Then Cuba will be free again.”
He said the United States would reach an agreement with Cuba, but did not specify what that meant.
History of U.S.-Cuba relations
The country has been under a U.S. trade embargo since the 1959 Cuban revolution, which overthrew Fidel Castro’s pro-American government. Decades of sanctions have denied Cuba access to global markets, making it difficult to even supply medical supplies.
Castro nationalized U.S.-owned real estate, primarily the oil sector, and Washington responded with trade restrictions that soon resulted in a total economic embargo that continues to this day and weakened Cuba’s economy.
The United States also severed diplomatic relations with Havana, and three years later, a missile crisis brought the United States and Cuba’s former Soviet Union ally to the brink of nuclear war.
In 2014, Washington and Havana restored relations for the first time in 50 years. Two years later, US President Barack Obama traveled to Havana to meet with Raul Castro.
However, during his first term as president, Trump reversed the historic move in 2017. Since then, the United States has reimposed a number of sanctions against Cuba, particularly economic restrictions, causing one of the worst economic crises in the island nation’s history. Within hours of taking office in January 2025, Trump reversed the previous administration’s policy of engagement in Havana.
How long can Cuba hold out?
Mexico was reportedly Cuba’s main oil supplier until last month, accounting for about 44% of total crude oil imports, followed by Venezuela with 33%, with nearly 10% coming from Russia and a small amount from Algeria.
By January 30, Cuba will have enough oil to last only 15 to 20 days at current demand levels, according to data firm Kpler.
Cuba currently requires an estimated 100,000 barrels of oil per day.
What does the United Nations say about the Cuban Missile Crisis?
“The Secretary-General is very concerned about the humanitarian situation in Cuba. If oil needs are not met, the humanitarian situation in Cuba will deteriorate, if not collapse,” U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric told reporters on Wednesday.
Dujarric said the U.N. General Assembly has consistently called for an end to the U.S. embargo on Cuba for more than 30 years, adding that the U.N. called on “all parties to pursue dialogue and respect for international law.”
Cuba’s top U.N. official, Francisco Pichon, said there was a “mixture of emotions” in the country, “not just resilience, but also grief, sorrow, anger and some concern about the development of the region.”
The UN team in Havana said the majority of Cubans were affected by rolling blackouts, and the number of people in vulnerable situations had increased significantly.
“The past two years have been extremely difficult,” Pichon said, adding that urgent changes were needed to keep Cuba “in the midst of severe economic, financial and trade sanctions.”
