1. There is a lot of uncertainty
No one expected the Fed to cut rates, let alone raise them, at this meeting, but the market is always looking for clues as to its next move. Neither the post-meeting statement, updated economic forecasts nor Powell’s press conference offered much on this point. There were only minor revisions to the statement, a moderately dovish shift in the “dot plot,” and Powell used some form of “uncertainty” no fewer than six times.
2. War is a problem
Powell said it is nearly impossible to predict the future and model policy when the United States is at war with Iran. He repeatedly faced questions about the oil crisis, mostly emphasizing how it muddied the waters for the Fed. “What I really want to stress is that no one knows,” he said. “The economic impact could be much larger, it could be smaller, it could be much smaller or it could be much larger. We don’t know.”
3. Reductions are planned, but timing is highly uncertain
The dot plot still shows one more production cut this year and one more next year. But the grid looked more like a maze than a consensus, highlighting how little fundamental consensus there is on the Federal Open Market Committee. For example, in 2027, one official expects a rate hike, three expect no change from current levels, four expect another rate cut, six expect two more rate cuts, three expect three rate cuts, one official expects four rate cuts, and the last participant (probably Governor Stephen Milan) brings the total to five.
4. Powell leaves the door open to staying
At each press conference, Powell is asked whether he will remain governor after his term as chairman ends. He reiterated that he hasn’t made a decision yet, but that doesn’t mean the possibility has been ruled out. But he also said he is not going anywhere as long as the investigation into him continues, adding that he plans to remain in office as a sort of “chair pro tem” until former Gov. Kevin Warsh is confirmed as his successor, perhaps.
5. Powell denies “stagflation”
Please don’t use the word “stagflation” around Mr. Powell. He rejected the idea that the U.S. economy, with strong growth and low unemployment, is heading toward a 1970s nightmare, even as employment rates slump and inflation exceeds the Fed’s target for five years. “It’s a very difficult situation, but it’s not like what they faced in the 1970s, and (I) would like to reserve ‘stagflation’ for that,” Powell said. “Maybe it’s just me.”
they said so
“The Fed didn’t move today, but it didn’t need to. The Fed is a central bank that is comfortable waiting, monitoring, and being flexible. One expected rate cut says it all. The Fed is in no hurry, and neither should investors.” — Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group.
“While this move was widely expected, it underscores the difficult path ahead for the Fed, which currently faces pressure from both high levels of employment and its dual mandate to control inflation. Further complicating matters, Fed leaders often The fact that very important decisions are being made based on data from weeks or even months ago, which may not fully capture the magnitude of rapid economic fluctuations, increases the risk that decisions will be made too late or based on outdated assumptions. — Just like the economist Felix Aidala.
“Given the volatile situation, the committee wants to do everything possible to avoid rocking the boat ahead of the inauguration of the new Fed chair.” — Stephen Coltman, 21shares Head of Macro.
