Turning your ground into a fortress has long been considered important, but is playing at home really the advantage it once was?
Over the last two weeks in the Premier League, home teams have won only four out of 21 games, a percentage of only 19%. Manchester City, Crystal Palace and Aston Villa are the only teams to have won in front of their home fans during this period.
The list of teams struggling at home this season also includes Spurs, who lost 4-1 to Arsenal on Sunday and have only won their second home game this season. They and Chelsea are one of six teams that average fewer points per game at home than away.
Chelsea’s late 1-1 draw with Burnley on Saturday was the eighth of 14 home games in which they have dropped points this season.
This season’s overall home winning percentage of 42 per cent ranks as the fifth lowest in Premier League history, but the importance of home advantage has actually been waning for over a century.
The graph below shows the percentage of home wins, draws and away wins by season in England’s top flight since the Football League was founded in 1888. The trend is clear.
The home winning percentage reached a high of 65% in 1895, but has steadily declined since then, dropping by about a third to 42% this season.
The draw rate rose from just 12% in 1890 to 32% in 1973, but has declined in recent years as away win rates have increased.
From a low of just 16% in 1901, the away win percentage in English football’s top flight has increased to 31%, an upward trend that has accelerated over the past decade.
The two Premier League teams played against each other behind closed doors amid the coronavirus pandemic.
In the 2020/21 season, when matches were played behind closed doors due to the coronavirus, the away win rate exceeded the home win rate for the first time in history, from 40% to 38%.
Why is home advantage disappearing?
So what’s behind the continued decline in home advantage?
Of course, as infrastructure and facilities have improved over the course of history, clubs have become better equipped to meet the challenges of playing away. Traveling, although still inconvenient, has become much easier and faster in modern times.
Developments in sports science, coaching and preparation have also undoubtedly contributed. The resources available to top-level clubs are comprehensive and continue to become more sophisticated, allowing them to better cope with the challenges of away play.
Standardization of pitch is also a factor. Early 20th century competition regulations stipulated that pitches should be between 91 and 119 meters long and between 46 and 91 meters wide, allowing for a great variety in size, often giving the home side a significant advantage.
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UEFA’s pitch size requirements are now significantly narrower at 100-105 meters long and 64-68 meters wide, ensuring greater uniformity and reducing unfamiliar layers for away sides. Advances in technology and stricter regulations have resulted in a similar uniformity in the quality of playing surfaces.
And what about the fans? Home advantage disappeared in the coronavirus-hit 2020/21 season, with away win rates exceeding home win rates for the first time, proving they still matter.
Have grounds become less of a hostile environment for away teams over time, and is it possible that increased supporter anxiety is actually having a negative impact on teams, as we have seen at the likes of Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and West Ham’s London Stadium in recent seasons? Or does that anxiety stem from the outcome rather than the other way around?
The fact that Everton, Spurs and West Ham, the Premier League’s three worst-performing teams at home this season, are adapting to new or relatively new grounds may be evidence of the enduring importance of familiarity for home teams.
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